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An Unlikely Contender Rises in France as the Antithesis of Trump An Unlikely Contender Rises in France as the Antithesis of Trump
(about 20 hours later)
PARIS — In the age of Donald J. Trump, “Brexit,” and the resurgent French far right, a thin, aging career politician with an ironic smile is being called — by him and his supporters — France’s best defense against raging global populism. PARIS — In the age of Donald J. Trump, “Brexit” and the resurgent French far right, a thin, aging career politician with an ironic smile is being called — by him and his supporters — France’s best defense against raging global populism.
A first test for Alain Juppé, 71, comes Sunday as France’s mainstream center-right Republican party holds a primary ahead of next spring’s presidential elections. Mr. Juppé is favored to come out on top, for now. A first test for Alain Juppé, 71, comes Sunday as France’s mainstream center-right Republican party holds a primary ahead of next spring’s presidential election. Mr. Juppé is favored to come out on top, for now.
His ascendance is all the more improbable because, in a previous post, he was considered one of France’s most unpopular prime ministers ever. And he was once convicted in a Paris City Hall corruption scheme.His ascendance is all the more improbable because, in a previous post, he was considered one of France’s most unpopular prime ministers ever. And he was once convicted in a Paris City Hall corruption scheme.
But the election of Mr. Trump has upended French politics and given new momentum to the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. As a result, mainstream conservatives are far from delighted.But the election of Mr. Trump has upended French politics and given new momentum to the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. As a result, mainstream conservatives are far from delighted.
The candidacy of the battle-scarred Mr. Juppé is seen by his supporters as a bulwark at a time when the postelection United States is now routinely depicted as one leg of a global tripartite menace, along with China and Russia, bearing down on fragile Western democracies.The candidacy of the battle-scarred Mr. Juppé is seen by his supporters as a bulwark at a time when the postelection United States is now routinely depicted as one leg of a global tripartite menace, along with China and Russia, bearing down on fragile Western democracies.
Mr. Juppé doesn’t shout, wave his arms or make grandiose promises — seen as a plus by his supporters. His professorial bearing stands in contrast to his sometimes bombastic and offending party rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president who has redefined himself as a tough guy for uncertain times.Mr. Juppé doesn’t shout, wave his arms or make grandiose promises — seen as a plus by his supporters. His professorial bearing stands in contrast to his sometimes bombastic and offending party rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president who has redefined himself as a tough guy for uncertain times.
But while other contenders for the presidency are adopting Mr. Trump’s depiction of Muslims as an inherent threat, Mr. Juppé’s soothing message of French unity has, so far, helped him to lead opinion polls.But while other contenders for the presidency are adopting Mr. Trump’s depiction of Muslims as an inherent threat, Mr. Juppé’s soothing message of French unity has, so far, helped him to lead opinion polls.
Still, Mr. Juppé’s tenure as prime minister during the 1990s was one of the most divisive in modern French history, marked by proposed cutbacks to generous civil-servant pensions that brought thousands into the streets in protest. Mr. Juppé’s plan ultimately failed.Still, Mr. Juppé’s tenure as prime minister during the 1990s was one of the most divisive in modern French history, marked by proposed cutbacks to generous civil-servant pensions that brought thousands into the streets in protest. Mr. Juppé’s plan ultimately failed.
This time around, he has promised more market-oriented reforms, and has vowed not to back down in the face of inevitable protests. In that regard, the technocratic Mr. Juppé, of all the contenders, may present the biggest challenge to France’s social protections and labor rules. This time around, he has promised more market-oriented reforms and has vowed not to back down in the face of inevitable protests. In that regard, the technocratic Mr. Juppé, of all the contenders, may present the biggest challenge to France’s social protections and labor rules.
The governing Socialists, saddled with a poor economic record and an unpopular incumbent president, François Hollande, are already being written off.The governing Socialists, saddled with a poor economic record and an unpopular incumbent president, François Hollande, are already being written off.
The race is considered the right’s to lose. Just behind Mr. Sarkozy in the polls, nipping at his heels, is another former prime minister, François Fillon.The race is considered the right’s to lose. Just behind Mr. Sarkozy in the polls, nipping at his heels, is another former prime minister, François Fillon.
The winner of Sunday’s Republican primary — there will be a runoff on Nov. 27 — is considered likely to face Ms. Le Pen in April’s presidential election.The winner of Sunday’s Republican primary — there will be a runoff on Nov. 27 — is considered likely to face Ms. Le Pen in April’s presidential election.
If previous patterns hold, Ms. Le Pen will be defeated, which would make Mr. Juppé the likeliest of all those now running to become the next French president.If previous patterns hold, Ms. Le Pen will be defeated, which would make Mr. Juppé the likeliest of all those now running to become the next French president.
The announcement on Wednesday by Emmanuel Macron, a popular former economy minister in the Socialist government, that he, too, will enter the presidential race is unlikely to change the right and far-right dynamic, in the eyes of many observers.The announcement on Wednesday by Emmanuel Macron, a popular former economy minister in the Socialist government, that he, too, will enter the presidential race is unlikely to change the right and far-right dynamic, in the eyes of many observers.
At 38, Mr. Macron has the image of a youthful reformer, but analysts have noted his thin record, lack of a party base, and absence of heft — he has never held elected office — in a universe of surging populism.At 38, Mr. Macron has the image of a youthful reformer, but analysts have noted his thin record, lack of a party base, and absence of heft — he has never held elected office — in a universe of surging populism.
Mr. Juppé, on the other hand, has won and lost numerous elections, and has served for many years as the mayor of Bordeaux, where he has been credited with transforming the city. Mr. Juppé, on the other hand, has won and lost numerous elections and has served for many years as the mayor of Bordeaux, where he has been credited with transforming the city.
But, with near-permanent high unemployment, an injection of energy from Mr. Trump’s victory into Ms. Le Pen’s campaign — xenophobic nationalism is her core theme — and the same social and economic fractures as in the United States, there are no guarantees.But, with near-permanent high unemployment, an injection of energy from Mr. Trump’s victory into Ms. Le Pen’s campaign — xenophobic nationalism is her core theme — and the same social and economic fractures as in the United States, there are no guarantees.
The warning signs from across the Atlantic were evident in a campaign swing through Lower Burgundy on Wednesday, as Mr. Juppé met with disgruntled farmers and rural officials.The warning signs from across the Atlantic were evident in a campaign swing through Lower Burgundy on Wednesday, as Mr. Juppé met with disgruntled farmers and rural officials.
The French news media has noted that the American election results have colored the former prime minister’s message with concern about the existence of two Frances — one benefiting from globalization, and the other left behind. The French news media has noted that the American election results have colored the former prime minister’s message with concern about the existence of two Frances: one benefiting from globalization, and the other left behind.
There are the large, vibrant cities — Paris, Lyon, Mr. Juppé’s Bordeaux — and then there are the shuttered main streets of sleepy provincial capitals and rural towns like those he visited on Wednesday.There are the large, vibrant cities — Paris, Lyon, Mr. Juppé’s Bordeaux — and then there are the shuttered main streets of sleepy provincial capitals and rural towns like those he visited on Wednesday.
Wearing the coat and tie he appears never to shed, Mr. Juppé got his shoes muddy at a grain and dairy farm whose owner complained of crushing debt.Wearing the coat and tie he appears never to shed, Mr. Juppé got his shoes muddy at a grain and dairy farm whose owner complained of crushing debt.
“People have talked about suffering,” Mr. Juppé told a roomful in the tiny village of St.-Loup-d’Ordon, “and it is true,” he said, speaking in a knowing, weary tone, careful never to exaggerate.“People have talked about suffering,” Mr. Juppé told a roomful in the tiny village of St.-Loup-d’Ordon, “and it is true,” he said, speaking in a knowing, weary tone, careful never to exaggerate.
With his eyebrows slightly arched, he listened patiently to the complaints. Rural France feels “abandoned” and “disdained” by Paris, Mr. Juppé said. “But we can’t accept this gulf between the big cities and rural France,” he said. With his eyebrows slightly arched, he listened patiently to the complaints. Rural France feels “abandoned” and “disdained” by Paris, Mr. Juppé said. “But we can’t accept this gulf between the big cities and rural France.”
Promising a “strong state,” he had a warning for his audience deep in the Burgundian countryside at St.-Julien-du-Sault: “The world is becoming more and more dangerous. Nationalism is on the rise.”Promising a “strong state,” he had a warning for his audience deep in the Burgundian countryside at St.-Julien-du-Sault: “The world is becoming more and more dangerous. Nationalism is on the rise.”
Similarly, at a rally this week in northern Paris, the perceived menace of rising populism was a common theme in the speeches and comments of Mr. Juppé’s supporters.Similarly, at a rally this week in northern Paris, the perceived menace of rising populism was a common theme in the speeches and comments of Mr. Juppé’s supporters.
From Mr. Juppé himself and the other center-right speakers who preceded him, Mr. Trump’s name came up often. Each time, it was met with loud boos from the crowd of around 6,000. Mr. Juppé — “a man of culture,” one speaker called him — was depicted as the antithesis of Mr. Trump.From Mr. Juppé himself and the other center-right speakers who preceded him, Mr. Trump’s name came up often. Each time, it was met with loud boos from the crowd of around 6,000. Mr. Juppé — “a man of culture,” one speaker called him — was depicted as the antithesis of Mr. Trump.
“After the election of Donald Trump, after Brexit, will populism triumph in our country? No!” shouted Patrick Devedjian, a former minister, who introduced Mr. Juppé at the rally.“After the election of Donald Trump, after Brexit, will populism triumph in our country? No!” shouted Patrick Devedjian, a former minister, who introduced Mr. Juppé at the rally.
The crowd — mostly middle-aged or older, buttoned-up and carefully dressed, like Mr. Juppé — roared approval. “We’ve had it up to here with populist baseness!” Mr. Devedjian said.The crowd — mostly middle-aged or older, buttoned-up and carefully dressed, like Mr. Juppé — roared approval. “We’ve had it up to here with populist baseness!” Mr. Devedjian said.
Another supporter, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a prominent centrist politician, told the crowd, “France doesn’t need a mini-Trump in the Élysée!” — referring to the presidential palace in Paris.Another supporter, Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a prominent centrist politician, told the crowd, “France doesn’t need a mini-Trump in the Élysée!” — referring to the presidential palace in Paris.
Valérie Pécresse, president of the Paris region’s council, was equally scathing. “Populism is about not telling the truth,” she said. “Alain,” she added, turning to Mr. Juppé, seated in the front row, “you are the antidote to populism.”Valérie Pécresse, president of the Paris region’s council, was equally scathing. “Populism is about not telling the truth,” she said. “Alain,” she added, turning to Mr. Juppé, seated in the front row, “you are the antidote to populism.”
Mr. Juppé, who spoke in pithy bullet points, promised to stand up to enemies and rivals — both internal and external. In a brisk speech that reflected his classical education at France’s top schools, he brought up Mr. Trump in the context of threats to France.Mr. Juppé, who spoke in pithy bullet points, promised to stand up to enemies and rivals — both internal and external. In a brisk speech that reflected his classical education at France’s top schools, he brought up Mr. Trump in the context of threats to France.
“I don’t know what Donald Trump’s foreign policy will be,” he told the crowd. “He has said contradictory things. What I know is, there will be an aggressive commercial policy. So we must be aggressive, too.”“I don’t know what Donald Trump’s foreign policy will be,” he told the crowd. “He has said contradictory things. What I know is, there will be an aggressive commercial policy. So we must be aggressive, too.”
Setting himself up as a defender of European unity — Ms. Le Pen is fiercely opposed to the European Union — Mr. Juppé said: “France can be a world power, in thrall to nobody. But separated, we will be vassals of the big empires all around us: Russia, China, and the U.S.” Setting himself up as a defender of European unity — Ms. Le Pen is fiercely opposed to the European Union — Mr. Juppé said: “France can be a world power, in thrall to nobody. But separated, we will be vassals of the big empires all around us: Russia, China and the U.S.”
Afterward, encountered on the boulevard outside the rally, he wondered whether his comments about Mr. Trump had been too “offensive.” Mr. Juppé has served twice as France’s foreign minister and chooses his words carefully.Afterward, encountered on the boulevard outside the rally, he wondered whether his comments about Mr. Trump had been too “offensive.” Mr. Juppé has served twice as France’s foreign minister and chooses his words carefully.
But then he shrugged his shoulders, saying about Mr. Trump, “We’ll see.”But then he shrugged his shoulders, saying about Mr. Trump, “We’ll see.”