At U.N. Meeting, Diplomats Worry Trump Could Cripple Climate Pact

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/16/world/united-nations-climate-change-trump.html

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MARRAKESH, Morocco — Diplomats at an annual United Nations global warming summit meeting here expressed shock at the election of Donald J. Trump, who has called climate change a hoax and vowed to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate change accord, worrying that Mr. Trump’s presidency could cripple a decade of climate diplomacy.

And some called for retaliation to compel American compliance. Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president of France, who is again running to lead his country, suggested imposing a carbon tariff on imports from the United States, based on the amount of carbon dioxide pollution emitted to produce various goods.

Salaheddine Mezouar, the Moroccan foreign minister, who is presiding over the Marrakesh meeting, said: “We really want the U.S., naturally. It has a huge role, a huge weight.”

Officials from the Obama administration sought to reassure the world that even if Mr. Trump rolls back the United States’ federal climate change policy, many states and electric utilities have already turned toward investing in the growing market for low-carbon energy.

The Obama administration rolled out a slew of last-minute regulations since the election of Mr. Trump, and more are planned in the coming weeks.

“You can’t keep the waves off the beach,” Ernest J. Moniz, the secretary of energy, said in an interview here, describing his message to counterparts. “We are heading to a low-carbon economy. The train has left the station.” .

And no government has said publicly that it will follow the United States away from the Paris agreement, which committed more than 190 countries to develop plans to combat climate change. Leading diplomats said they expected the pact to be followed with or without the United States.

“The agreement is not dependent on the U.S.,” said Laurence Tubiana, the French climate change envoy, who played a key role in brokering the Paris deal. “Many countries have domestic rationale for wanting to reduce their emissions.”

Still, she added, “I hope President Trump considers the laws of physics. Climate change will not stop, even if he stops implementing the rules.”

One year ago in Paris, hundreds of diplomats celebrated the new accord. President Obama hoped to make the United States a leader in combating climate change, drafting the first American climate regulations and serving as a central broker of the Paris deal.

This week’s summit meeting was intended as a low-key follow-up to agree on details for carrying out the deal. Instead, the American presidential election has taken center stage, and China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas polluter, is poised to step forward as the world’s new leader in climate diplomacy.

“It is a new world order,” Erik Solheim, head of the United Nations Environment Program, said. “Leadership on climate change policy has now gone to the developing countries, China among them.”

A new analysis of carbon dioxide emissions trends published on Monday concluded that planet-warming emissions had leveled off for the past three years in a row, chiefly because of a sharp reduction in China’s emissions.

“The big story is China over the last decade,” said Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, and co-author of the study, an annual analysis published in the journal Earth System Science Data. “No one expected China’s emissions to grow so fast, and no one expected them to level out and come to such a sudden halt.”

China had long resisted pressure to enact plans to cut its emissions. But that changed after 2014, when President Xi Jinping outlined his plan to lower China’s emissions by 2030. Next year, Mr. Xi plans to start a national program to force industrial greenhouse gas emitters to pay a fee to pollute.

Zou Ji, deputy director general of China’s National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, which advises the government, said the Paris Agreement could survive despite Mr. Trump’s election.

The leadership vacuum offers Beijing “a way of raising its status, power and leadership in the global order,” Mr. Zou said.

The Chinese delegation decorated the walls of its office in red banners, photographs of nature and printouts of English-language quotations about protecting the planet.

“Waves of new blood on board, we devote to the affairs of family, nation and globe, composing chapters of commitments,” one read.

Mr. Moniz tried to maintain a position for the United States on the diplomatic stage.

“We have made a huge dent by playing a role in innovation and getting the rest of the world to do it,” he said.

Behind the scenes, many United States climate officials acknowledged that they remained shellshocked by the results of last week’s election. Plans for the White House delegation to join the governments of Mexico and Canada here on Wednesday to detail a North American road map for aggressive emissions cuts by 2050 have been thrown into question.

After last week’s election, some longtime climate policy analysts initially feared a reprise of the fate of the world’s first climate change treaty — the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. In Kyoto, Al Gore, who was then vice president, pledged that the United States, the world’s largest carbon polluter at the time, would enact an ambitious climate change policy. But President George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the Kyoto accord, and it ultimately had little impact.

But unlike Kyoto, the Paris deal has already entered into legal force, since more than half the nations of the world have formally ratified it.

“There is no comparison with Kyoto,” Mr. Mezouar said. “Countries are now legally bound to Paris. They are staying.”

Still, he conceded, money is one of the crucial questions going forward. As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton promised the rest of the world that rich countries would mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to the ravages of climate change. Without action by the United States, “much of the financial contribution could be taken away,” Mr. Mezouar said.

Others said the impact of global warming might change Mr. Trump’s mind. A study this week from the World Meteorological Organization found 2016 on track to be the hottest year on record, blowing past the records set by 2014 and 2015.

“Trump’s election, in a moment when climate action has finally been mainstreamed into the economy, gives Republicans a chance to reconcile with real life,” André Ferretti, a coordinator of the Brazilian Climate Observatory, said. “In real life, we keep breaking temperature records, and extreme events impact Democrats and Republicans alike.”