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| For U.S., ‘Brexit’ Was a Sign of Things to Come | For U.S., ‘Brexit’ Was a Sign of Things to Come |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| LONDON — It was a revolt against elite complacency, an almost palpable shock to conventional wisdom and conventional politics. Opponents could barely comprehend the poll-confounding news. This was June in Britain, not November in America, and the mind-boggling upset was the British decision to leave the European Union. | LONDON — It was a revolt against elite complacency, an almost palpable shock to conventional wisdom and conventional politics. Opponents could barely comprehend the poll-confounding news. This was June in Britain, not November in America, and the mind-boggling upset was the British decision to leave the European Union. |
| The election of Donald J. Trump as America’s 45th president has strong parallels to the British exit, known as Brexit, but the impact will be much bigger, in Europe and the rest of the world. | The election of Donald J. Trump as America’s 45th president has strong parallels to the British exit, known as Brexit, but the impact will be much bigger, in Europe and the rest of the world. |
| Britain’s vote to leave the European Union sent tremors through the political and financial system and the center-left news media. It was a blow to the betting markets and to the pollsters. It was a rejection of the governing political class and the self-satisfied elite. And it was delivered by older, working-class voters in areas of Britain hit hard by globalization, angered by immigration and anxious about their nation’s identity in a borderless world. | |
| One main reason for the surprise at the polls was the participation of people who in the past rarely voted. That is a lesson that will echo all over Europe — where the Italians will hold a constitutional referendum next month, the Austrians will vote for president and the French are about to hold a presidential primary — as France and Germany gear up for national elections next year. | One main reason for the surprise at the polls was the participation of people who in the past rarely voted. That is a lesson that will echo all over Europe — where the Italians will hold a constitutional referendum next month, the Austrians will vote for president and the French are about to hold a presidential primary — as France and Germany gear up for national elections next year. |
| It may also be a caution to the European Union itself, which has so far united in opposing any idea of immigration control in return for free trade in its future negotiations with Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain. | It may also be a caution to the European Union itself, which has so far united in opposing any idea of immigration control in return for free trade in its future negotiations with Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain. |
| Barely two days ago, in North Carolina, Mr. Trump told a rally: “It will be an amazing day, it will be called ‘Brexit plus plus plus!’ You know what I mean?” | Barely two days ago, in North Carolina, Mr. Trump told a rally: “It will be an amazing day, it will be called ‘Brexit plus plus plus!’ You know what I mean?” |
| Most Americans would not have known what he meant. But Britons and Europeans understood immediately. | Most Americans would not have known what he meant. But Britons and Europeans understood immediately. |
| “At first blush, the parallels with Brexit are uncanny,” said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, a research institution in London. “I heard older voters in Florida saying that they ‘wanted their country back again,’ almost exactly the same language” used in England and Wales. | “At first blush, the parallels with Brexit are uncanny,” said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, a research institution in London. “I heard older voters in Florida saying that they ‘wanted their country back again,’ almost exactly the same language” used in England and Wales. |
| “It’s no longer ‘the economy stupid,’ it’s ‘identity, stupid,’ ” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “What we are seeing here is what we saw in the Brexit referendum, which is that identity and cultural politics are even bigger determinants of people’s politics than we thought possible.” | “It’s no longer ‘the economy stupid,’ it’s ‘identity, stupid,’ ” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “What we are seeing here is what we saw in the Brexit referendum, which is that identity and cultural politics are even bigger determinants of people’s politics than we thought possible.” |
| Mr. Trump, like Nigel Farage, the leader of the U.K. Independence Party (who stumped for Mr. Trump) and the “Leave” campaign, emphasized their slogan of “take back control.” By doing so, they “managed to mobilize a whole bunch of people who haven’t voted before, or haven’t voted often, who are feeling sore about the way the world is, and are in some ways nostalgic about the world he is promising to give them back,” Professor Bale said. | |
| Many of those who voted for a British exit “want to bring the house down and start again,” Mr. Niblett said. “And Trump is someone who will do that, who doesn’t fit into a conventional box, and appealed to people looking for a fresh start.” | Many of those who voted for a British exit “want to bring the house down and start again,” Mr. Niblett said. “And Trump is someone who will do that, who doesn’t fit into a conventional box, and appealed to people looking for a fresh start.” |
| John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, said he saw a similarity between the American election and the British referendum in the confrontation among classes. “The divide between the liberal, the educated and the young versus the older and undereducated has been an important factor in both the U.S. elections and Brexit,” he said. | John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, said he saw a similarity between the American election and the British referendum in the confrontation among classes. “The divide between the liberal, the educated and the young versus the older and undereducated has been an important factor in both the U.S. elections and Brexit,” he said. |
| Remarkably for a Republican candidate, Professor Curtice said, Mr. Trump managed to get votes from young men, many without a higher education, “because of the nature of his populist message” | |
| “It is the rebellion of the Rust Belt,” he said. “The bigger, broader message to the elites is, ‘Hey guys, a large portion of the public is rebelling against the consequences of globalization.’ ” | “It is the rebellion of the Rust Belt,” he said. “The bigger, broader message to the elites is, ‘Hey guys, a large portion of the public is rebelling against the consequences of globalization.’ ” |
| The big question for Europe is whether its leaders will finally recognize that Brexit supporters and other nationalists might have a point. “The continued insistence on linking free trade with free movement of immigration will increasingly come under democratic pressure.” | The big question for Europe is whether its leaders will finally recognize that Brexit supporters and other nationalists might have a point. “The continued insistence on linking free trade with free movement of immigration will increasingly come under democratic pressure.” |
| Ann Treneman, an American who covered politics for the Times of London, said on Twitter: “So many similarities with Brexit: the young voted for Clinton, the old for Trump. Moral? Don’t underestimate the angry white man.” | Ann Treneman, an American who covered politics for the Times of London, said on Twitter: “So many similarities with Brexit: the young voted for Clinton, the old for Trump. Moral? Don’t underestimate the angry white man.” |
| Mr. Trump’s victory gave great encouragement to other populist, anti-immigration leaders in Europe. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France, who have both warned about Islamic radicalism, have cheered Mr. Trump’s strong showing. | Mr. Trump’s victory gave great encouragement to other populist, anti-immigration leaders in Europe. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France, who have both warned about Islamic radicalism, have cheered Mr. Trump’s strong showing. |
| “The Americans are taking their country back,” Mr. Wilders, a lawmaker who leads the Freedom Party and who faces hate-speech charges, wrote on Twitter. | “The Americans are taking their country back,” Mr. Wilders, a lawmaker who leads the Freedom Party and who faces hate-speech charges, wrote on Twitter. |
| Ms. Le Pen, leader of the National Front and a presidential candidate, congratulated Mr. Trump and “the American people, free!” | Ms. Le Pen, leader of the National Front and a presidential candidate, congratulated Mr. Trump and “the American people, free!” |
| More bitingly, a vice president of her party, Florian Philippot, said on Twitter: “Their world is crumbling. Ours is being built.” | More bitingly, a vice president of her party, Florian Philippot, said on Twitter: “Their world is crumbling. Ours is being built.” |
| Despite the euphoria on the far right, some observers said the shock over the British vote and the Trump victory might solidify a sense of belonging and solidarity in the broader European electorate, rather than a greater desire for disunion. | Despite the euphoria on the far right, some observers said the shock over the British vote and the Trump victory might solidify a sense of belonging and solidarity in the broader European electorate, rather than a greater desire for disunion. |
| Mr. Trump’s victory “may bring an element of soberness to Europe and make it harder rather than easier for populists to win,” Mr. Niblett of Chatham House said. | Mr. Trump’s victory “may bring an element of soberness to Europe and make it harder rather than easier for populists to win,” Mr. Niblett of Chatham House said. |
| But there was great fear that Mr. Trump’s “America First” slogan would leave Europe on its own, while Russia’s expansionist president, Vladimir V. Putin, whom Mr. Trump openly admires, is working to undermine confidence in NATO security guarantees and in the cohesion of the European Union itself. | But there was great fear that Mr. Trump’s “America First” slogan would leave Europe on its own, while Russia’s expansionist president, Vladimir V. Putin, whom Mr. Trump openly admires, is working to undermine confidence in NATO security guarantees and in the cohesion of the European Union itself. |
| “This is a wake-up call for European leaders,” said Guy Verhofstadt, the president of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, who will be leading the European Union’s negotiations with Britain. “Donald Trump has declared several times that our priorities are not his.” | |
| Former prime minister Enrico Letta of Italy, writing on Twitter, called Mr. Trump’s victory “the greatest political breakage since the fall of the Berlin Wall, a big wake-up call for Europe.” | Former prime minister Enrico Letta of Italy, writing on Twitter, called Mr. Trump’s victory “the greatest political breakage since the fall of the Berlin Wall, a big wake-up call for Europe.” |
| Even if Mr. Trump pulls back from his campaign rhetoric, said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations, “those with an interest to undermine and destabilize NATO and Europe will be emboldened.” | Even if Mr. Trump pulls back from his campaign rhetoric, said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations, “those with an interest to undermine and destabilize NATO and Europe will be emboldened.” |
| And she worried about another possible parallel to Brexit in the rise of hate crimes and discrimination against foreigners and nonwhite Britons that followed the referendum. | And she worried about another possible parallel to Brexit in the rise of hate crimes and discrimination against foreigners and nonwhite Britons that followed the referendum. |
| While the parallels are real, “compared to the impact of the Trump victory, Brexit looks like a mild spring morning,” said Jan Techau, director of the Richard C. Holbrooke Forum at the American Academy in Berlin. | While the parallels are real, “compared to the impact of the Trump victory, Brexit looks like a mild spring morning,” said Jan Techau, director of the Richard C. Holbrooke Forum at the American Academy in Berlin. |
| “Both are a kind of abdication of responsibility to the world,” which will be very destabilizing, he said. Even if America remains in NATO, “trust will quickly start to evaporate and the one country needed to keep NATO on track will be absent or worse,” he said. | “Both are a kind of abdication of responsibility to the world,” which will be very destabilizing, he said. Even if America remains in NATO, “trust will quickly start to evaporate and the one country needed to keep NATO on track will be absent or worse,” he said. |
| Even in the realm of intelligence, where the allies rely on the Americans, “with Trump cozying up to Putin, will allies still share intelligence?” he asked. “Can we still count on the U.S. nuclear umbrella?” | Even in the realm of intelligence, where the allies rely on the Americans, “with Trump cozying up to Putin, will allies still share intelligence?” he asked. “Can we still count on the U.S. nuclear umbrella?” |
| In rainy London, there was largely shock and disappointment. “It’s an incredible step backwards,” said Steve Craig, 35, who works in digital marketing. “The population of the unwise and uneducated is more powerful than what everyone had predicted. It’s quite incredible to see a sex-pest elected to the highest office.” | In rainy London, there was largely shock and disappointment. “It’s an incredible step backwards,” said Steve Craig, 35, who works in digital marketing. “The population of the unwise and uneducated is more powerful than what everyone had predicted. It’s quite incredible to see a sex-pest elected to the highest office.” |
| As rain fell, Mr. Craig said, “It would be more fitting if ashes were falling.” | As rain fell, Mr. Craig said, “It would be more fitting if ashes were falling.” |
| Sabrina Talma, 32, who works in marketing, said: “I thought we were moving into the same direction, from having a black president to a female president. But we’re seeing a shift into the other direction.” | Sabrina Talma, 32, who works in marketing, said: “I thought we were moving into the same direction, from having a black president to a female president. But we’re seeing a shift into the other direction.” |