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Behind Putin’s Combativeness, Some See Motives Other Than Syria Behind Putin’s Combativeness, Some See Motives Other Than Syria
(about 1 hour later)
MOSCOW — Somewhat obscured by the volatile American presidential election this week was the implosion of relations between the Kremlin and the West.MOSCOW — Somewhat obscured by the volatile American presidential election this week was the implosion of relations between the Kremlin and the West.
It began after the United States distanced itself from cooperation on Syria and suggested that Russia should be investigated for war crimes.It began after the United States distanced itself from cooperation on Syria and suggested that Russia should be investigated for war crimes.
President Vladimir V. Putin took it badly, sending relations into the kind of tailspin not seen for decades, with dogs of war baying on the state-controlled news media. So badly, in fact, that some analysts began to suspect that other factors were driving his response.President Vladimir V. Putin took it badly, sending relations into the kind of tailspin not seen for decades, with dogs of war baying on the state-controlled news media. So badly, in fact, that some analysts began to suspect that other factors were driving his response.
Mr. Putin instantly unplugged several nuclear accords, including a 16-year-old bilateral agreement on reducing stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium, and he formulated a list of unattainable economic and legal demands as the cost of reviving the pact.Mr. Putin instantly unplugged several nuclear accords, including a 16-year-old bilateral agreement on reducing stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium, and he formulated a list of unattainable economic and legal demands as the cost of reviving the pact.
He deployed sophisticated antiaircraft weapons to Syria and redeployed long-range ballistic missiles to Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, leaving one-nuclear tipped version visible for the benefit of American spy satellites.He deployed sophisticated antiaircraft weapons to Syria and redeployed long-range ballistic missiles to Russia’s Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, leaving one-nuclear tipped version visible for the benefit of American spy satellites.
After France also called for Russia to be investigated for war crimes, Mr. Putin canceled a scheduled trip to Paris.After France also called for Russia to be investigated for war crimes, Mr. Putin canceled a scheduled trip to Paris.
Finally, the Kremlin announced that it was weighing reopening military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, while dispatching 5,000 paratroopers to participate in military maneuvers in Egypt, the first such cooperation in decades.Finally, the Kremlin announced that it was weighing reopening military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, while dispatching 5,000 paratroopers to participate in military maneuvers in Egypt, the first such cooperation in decades.
On the home front, some 40 million Russians, 200,000 rescue workers and 50,000 specialized vehicles took part in civil defense exercises. The Kremlin’s bellwether weekly news program also repeated its stark reminder, first rolled out two years ago, that Russia retained the ability to turn the United States into radioactive dust.On the home front, some 40 million Russians, 200,000 rescue workers and 50,000 specialized vehicles took part in civil defense exercises. The Kremlin’s bellwether weekly news program also repeated its stark reminder, first rolled out two years ago, that Russia retained the ability to turn the United States into radioactive dust.
“Boorish behavior toward Russia has a nuclear dimension,” said Dmitry K. Kiselyov, the show’s host.“Boorish behavior toward Russia has a nuclear dimension,” said Dmitry K. Kiselyov, the show’s host.
So if Mr. Putin was not actually preparing Russians for war, then what was he doing? On the international front, analysts say, Mr. Putin appeared to be positioning himself to make maximum demands of the next American president and to pursue his perennial goal of getting other world leaders to treat him as an equal.So if Mr. Putin was not actually preparing Russians for war, then what was he doing? On the international front, analysts say, Mr. Putin appeared to be positioning himself to make maximum demands of the next American president and to pursue his perennial goal of getting other world leaders to treat him as an equal.
More immediately, they say, he was raising the stakes for the anticipated resumption of negotiations over Syria, talks expected to begin again in some form in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Saturday.More immediately, they say, he was raising the stakes for the anticipated resumption of negotiations over Syria, talks expected to begin again in some form in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Saturday.
But increasingly, commentators in Russia have begun to suspect other motives, beginning with a need to distract attention from gaping holes in the federal budget and the painful, politically unpopular steps needed to close them.But increasingly, commentators in Russia have begun to suspect other motives, beginning with a need to distract attention from gaping holes in the federal budget and the painful, politically unpopular steps needed to close them.
“The serious part is not shown on television,” Ekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, said. “The serious part is the battle of the budget.”“The serious part is not shown on television,” Ekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, said. “The serious part is the battle of the budget.”
Russians are facing rising utility rates, and a new fee for building maintenance is especially irksome. Government spending on health care might be slashed 33 percent.Russians are facing rising utility rates, and a new fee for building maintenance is especially irksome. Government spending on health care might be slashed 33 percent.
Despite all the swagger the military budget will be cut by 6 percent annually for the next three years, after 15 years of increases.Despite all the swagger the military budget will be cut by 6 percent annually for the next three years, after 15 years of increases.
“When we look at this rather grim-looking budget, it is basically spending for police and pensions and not much else,” Ms. Schulmann said.“When we look at this rather grim-looking budget, it is basically spending for police and pensions and not much else,” Ms. Schulmann said.
Domestic matters aside, Mr. Putin still hopes to leverage the Syria crisis to change Russia’s role on the international stage. In deploying his military there last year, he initially planned to use the conflict to stabilize the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and break out of the economic sanctions and general Western isolation imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Domestic matters aside, Mr. Putin still hopes to leverage the Syria crisis to change Russia’s role on the international stage. In deploying his military there last year, he initially planned to use the conflict to stabilize the government of President Bashar al-Assad and break out of the economic sanctions and general Western isolation imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.
Marked success in stabilizing Mr. Assad with little cost appears to have fed larger goals. Once the agreement with Washington fell apart, Mr. Putin went all out to win Aleppo for Mr. Assad, no matter the price on the ground, to help Damascus gain control over some swathes of western Syria that would then force the opposition into an agreement. Marked success in stabilizing Mr. Assad with little cost appears to have fed larger goals. Once the agreement with Washington fell apart, Mr. Putin went all out to win Aleppo for Mr. Assad, no matter the price on the ground, to help Damascus gain control over some swaths of western Syria that would then force the opposition into an agreement.
“Russia has a window of opportunity to do it,” said Nikolai V. Petrov, a Russian professor of political science, said. “The next American president will face a new reality and will be forced to accept it.”“Russia has a window of opportunity to do it,” said Nikolai V. Petrov, a Russian professor of political science, said. “The next American president will face a new reality and will be forced to accept it.”
Various potholes mar the route to long-term success, however, one reason Russia rapidly agreed to new negotiations over Syria. For example, some unusual public grumbling has surfaced from the Russian military that the Syrian Army is an unworthy ally.Various potholes mar the route to long-term success, however, one reason Russia rapidly agreed to new negotiations over Syria. For example, some unusual public grumbling has surfaced from the Russian military that the Syrian Army is an unworthy ally.
“The Syrian armed forces have not conducted a single successful offensive during the past year,” wrote Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired colonel and respected military analyst on Gazeta.ru, a Russian news website. The article included a scathing assessment of corruption and general fecklessness throughout Mr. Assad’s military, and it called militia allies from Iran and Hezbollah equally suspect.“The Syrian armed forces have not conducted a single successful offensive during the past year,” wrote Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired colonel and respected military analyst on Gazeta.ru, a Russian news website. The article included a scathing assessment of corruption and general fecklessness throughout Mr. Assad’s military, and it called militia allies from Iran and Hezbollah equally suspect.
Beyond Syria, Mr. Putin harbors ambitions of restructuring the global order, with an eye to restoring Russia to what he sees as its rightful status in the upper tier.Beyond Syria, Mr. Putin harbors ambitions of restructuring the global order, with an eye to restoring Russia to what he sees as its rightful status in the upper tier.
“I believe that the talk about looming war is a propaganda trick: Russia wants to show that it can go far, it is an element of pressure,” said Aleksei Makarkin, the deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank. “Russia dreams about another Yalta conference, where together with other great powers it will divide the map.”“I believe that the talk about looming war is a propaganda trick: Russia wants to show that it can go far, it is an element of pressure,” said Aleksei Makarkin, the deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank. “Russia dreams about another Yalta conference, where together with other great powers it will divide the map.”
Mr. Putin himself said as much in remarks on Wednesday: “Let us not forget that we bear a special responsibility as the two largest nuclear powers for maintaining international peace and security at the global level.”Mr. Putin himself said as much in remarks on Wednesday: “Let us not forget that we bear a special responsibility as the two largest nuclear powers for maintaining international peace and security at the global level.”
Analysts brushed off the talk of new bases in Cuba, Vietnam and possibly Egypt, attributing it more to nostalgia than reality. There is no indication Russia would be welcomed by any of them, and the bases were shuttered over prohibitive costs. This is hardly the time for taking on more burdens.Analysts brushed off the talk of new bases in Cuba, Vietnam and possibly Egypt, attributing it more to nostalgia than reality. There is no indication Russia would be welcomed by any of them, and the bases were shuttered over prohibitive costs. This is hardly the time for taking on more burdens.
Mr. Putin strokes the pride of some Russians with the appearance that their country is influential again, especially given its prominence in the American presidential election, albeit mainly inspired by hacking accusations.Mr. Putin strokes the pride of some Russians with the appearance that their country is influential again, especially given its prominence in the American presidential election, albeit mainly inspired by hacking accusations.
“A while back, about a decade ago, Russia was never mentioned, they said there was nothing to talk about with regard to Russia because it was a third-rate regional power that was of no interest,” Mr. Putin said Wednesday. “Today, the number one problem in the entire election campaign is Russia. It is the main talking point. That is very welcome of course, but only partially.” “A while back, about a decade ago, Russia was never mentioned, they said there was nothing to talk about with regard to Russia because it was a third-rate regional power that was of no interest,” Mr. Putin said Wednesday. “Today, the No. 1 problem in the entire election campaign is Russia. It is the main talking point. That is very welcome of course, but only partially.”
The “partial” part was that the references were mostly negative. It also remains unclear that international matters really distract ordinary citizens from deepening economic woes.The “partial” part was that the references were mostly negative. It also remains unclear that international matters really distract ordinary citizens from deepening economic woes.
For the first time since Mr. Putin’s first tenure as president, which began in 2000, Russians are facing falling incomes. An October report from the Higher School of Economics calculated that real monthly income per capita fell to just under $500 per month, or roughly 87 percent of the income level in August 2014.For the first time since Mr. Putin’s first tenure as president, which began in 2000, Russians are facing falling incomes. An October report from the Higher School of Economics calculated that real monthly income per capita fell to just under $500 per month, or roughly 87 percent of the income level in August 2014.
The backlog of unpaid wages has reached an astronomical $56 million, while the Center for Political and Economic Reforms says the number of strikes and rallies over labor disputes has doubled in the past three months.The backlog of unpaid wages has reached an astronomical $56 million, while the Center for Political and Economic Reforms says the number of strikes and rallies over labor disputes has doubled in the past three months.
Given that the confrontation over Syria is likely to stall any relief on sanctions or other economic relations, Mr. Putin did what he often does in any confrontation: He raised the stakes.Given that the confrontation over Syria is likely to stall any relief on sanctions or other economic relations, Mr. Putin did what he often does in any confrontation: He raised the stakes.
“I see a certain step-up in rhetoric which seems to be our usual way to prepare for negotiations,” Ms. Schulman said, comparing it to the Ukraine playbook during the last crisis in 2014. “There was escalation and then consultation and then some step back. That seems to be the usual tactic and it seems to be effective.”“I see a certain step-up in rhetoric which seems to be our usual way to prepare for negotiations,” Ms. Schulman said, comparing it to the Ukraine playbook during the last crisis in 2014. “There was escalation and then consultation and then some step back. That seems to be the usual tactic and it seems to be effective.”