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| Hungarians Vote Against Migrants, but Too Few to Clear Threshold | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| BUDAPEST — Hungarians handed the country’s autocratic prime minister, Viktor Orban, a partial victory on Sunday by overwhelmingly voting no in a national referendum on whether to accept more migrants, but without giving him the turnout for a valid result. What Mr. Orban intends to do now, however, remains a mystery. | |
| The referendum — on which the government spent at least 10 billion Hungarian forint, or about $36 million — included no specifics about legislation or government action. | |
| “What will happen after the referendum will depend partly on the results themselves, but also on what is happening on the international scene,” said Zoltan Kovacs, Mr. Orban’s chief international spokesman, who declined to provide any more details. | “What will happen after the referendum will depend partly on the results themselves, but also on what is happening on the international scene,” said Zoltan Kovacs, Mr. Orban’s chief international spokesman, who declined to provide any more details. |
| With 99 percent of the vote counted Sunday night, 98 percent of voters had chosen to refuse to allow the European Union to force the country to accept refugees. But the turnout was 40 percent, well below the 50 percent required for a referendum to be considered valid under Hungarian law. | |
| Despite the failure to meet the turnout threshold, Mr. Orban said he considered the vote a mandate for the government to pursue its anti-immigrant policies. | |
| “We can be proud to be the first E.U. state to let its people express their own views on the issue of immigration,” Mr. Orban said in a speech at his victory party on Sunday night. “We are facing the most important question for years to come: It’s about the future of Hungary, with whom we live, what will be our culture, our lifestyle and our Christian roots.” | |
| In 2015, Mr. Orban made a name for himself by building a heavily guarded, razor-wire fence across the country’s southern borders to stem the flood of migrants into Hungary. He is the leader of one of a growing number of nationalistic, right-wing parties spreading across Europe, fueled by fear of migrants and resentment about the centralization of the European Union’s power. | |
| Leaders across the Continent were closely watching the outcome of the vote and what actions Mr. Orban would take afterward. | |
| Poland’s foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, recently echoed Mr. Orban’s call for restructuring the European Union to return more power to individual nations. “Our proposals are quite radical,” Mr. Waszczykowski said. | Poland’s foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, recently echoed Mr. Orban’s call for restructuring the European Union to return more power to individual nations. “Our proposals are quite radical,” Mr. Waszczykowski said. |
| The Czech Parliament has also discussed proposals to emulate Hungary by building border fences and beefing up border security. In Austria, a right-wing candidate has a solid chance of becoming the next president. And support for nationalist parties is surging in France and Denmark. | The Czech Parliament has also discussed proposals to emulate Hungary by building border fences and beefing up border security. In Austria, a right-wing candidate has a solid chance of becoming the next president. And support for nationalist parties is surging in France and Denmark. |
| “Far-right movements are on the rise everywhere, and there are reasons for that,” said Gabor Fodor, the head of the Hungarian Liberal Party. “The E.U. is very slow. Look at the 2008 financial crisis, the subsequent euro crisis and now the refugee crisis. People can feel it. There is nothing happening.” | “Far-right movements are on the rise everywhere, and there are reasons for that,” said Gabor Fodor, the head of the Hungarian Liberal Party. “The E.U. is very slow. Look at the 2008 financial crisis, the subsequent euro crisis and now the refugee crisis. People can feel it. There is nothing happening.” |
| Further fueling populist leaders, Mr. Fodor said, is the reality that Europe’s economy is less robust than it was in the 1990s. | Further fueling populist leaders, Mr. Fodor said, is the reality that Europe’s economy is less robust than it was in the 1990s. |
| “The middle class doesn’t have as much. The economy is not as strong,” Mr. Fodor said. “The welfare state is on the way down, and this has an impact on people’s lives.” | “The middle class doesn’t have as much. The economy is not as strong,” Mr. Fodor said. “The welfare state is on the way down, and this has an impact on people’s lives.” |
| Even Europe’s most powerful leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, is in real danger of falling to this nationalist tide in next year’s elections. | Even Europe’s most powerful leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, is in real danger of falling to this nationalist tide in next year’s elections. |
| “We are in the midst of a backlash against globalization, and it is a widespread phenomenon,” said Stefan Lehne, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels. “The general perception is that things have spiraled out of control. There is an increasing resistance to international business agreements. And this phenomenon has led to renationalization of individual states and rediscovery of national identity.” | “We are in the midst of a backlash against globalization, and it is a widespread phenomenon,” said Stefan Lehne, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels. “The general perception is that things have spiraled out of control. There is an increasing resistance to international business agreements. And this phenomenon has led to renationalization of individual states and rediscovery of national identity.” |
| Marta Pardavi, a chairwoman of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, a refugee rights group, said Mr. Orban insisted that “he needs the demonstrated support of the Hungarian people in the referendum so he can take courageous and bold steps.” | Marta Pardavi, a chairwoman of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, a refugee rights group, said Mr. Orban insisted that “he needs the demonstrated support of the Hungarian people in the referendum so he can take courageous and bold steps.” |
| But Mr. Orban has not been specific about what those steps will be. Instead, rumors swirl: There is talk of an amendment to Hungary’s Constitution preventing the European Union from imposing rules on the country without the approval of the Parliament. Some say Mr. Orban is likely to hold early elections to take advantage of the referendum’s momentum. | |
| Mr. Orban wants more autonomy from the European Union, but he also does not want to threaten the flow of desperately needed aid from the bloc’s headquarters in Brussels. | Mr. Orban wants more autonomy from the European Union, but he also does not want to threaten the flow of desperately needed aid from the bloc’s headquarters in Brussels. |
| Whether Mr. Orban will storm up the Danube and lay siege to Brussels, or whether this was just a very expensive exercise in rallying domestic support, is the subject of much debate here. | |
| “Most of the effort, I would say, is for domestic political purposes,” said Csaba Toth, the director of strategy for the Republikon Institute, a research and advocacy group that has been critical of the government. “Whenever the migration issue is on the table, the government’s popularity goes up. When something else is on the agenda, the government’s popularity goes down.” | “Most of the effort, I would say, is for domestic political purposes,” said Csaba Toth, the director of strategy for the Republikon Institute, a research and advocacy group that has been critical of the government. “Whenever the migration issue is on the table, the government’s popularity goes up. When something else is on the agenda, the government’s popularity goes down.” |
| But as the flow of migrants into Hungary has slowed in recent months — largely because of Mr. Orban’s border fence — the issue has slipped from public consciousness. | But as the flow of migrants into Hungary has slowed in recent months — largely because of Mr. Orban’s border fence — the issue has slipped from public consciousness. |
| “Last year, it was easy to keep the migration issue on the agenda,” Mr. Toth said. “We had a real refugee crisis. It was evident everywhere. Now, we don’t, so they have to make it a political initiative to keep the migration issue in the public’s mind.” | “Last year, it was easy to keep the migration issue on the agenda,” Mr. Toth said. “We had a real refugee crisis. It was evident everywhere. Now, we don’t, so they have to make it a political initiative to keep the migration issue in the public’s mind.” |
| Mr. Orban was aided by a lack of unity among the opposition, mainly because there is little popular support anywhere for admitting more migrants. | |
| Most left-wing parties had urged their supporters to stay home on Sunday, hoping to deny Mr. Orban the turnout he needed for a valid vote — although there remained questions about what that meant for a referendum that demanded no specific actions by the government other than opposing European Union refugee policies. | |
| “When a question doesn’t make sense, why take part?” Timea Szabo, a chairwoman of the left-wing Dialogue for Hungary Party, said before Sunday’s voting. “Orban is purposely misleading the Hungarian people in a villainous way. All of this focus on migrants takes attention away from government corruption cases, the terrible state of public health and education.” | |
| In failing to meet the legal threshold, Mr. Orban’s government found itself hoisted by its own petard. In 2011, the government raised the level of voter turnout necessary for a referendum to be considered valid to 50 percent, from 25 percent. Critics said the move was intended to stifle popular efforts to overturn Mr. Orban’s policies. | |
| The prankster Two-Tailed Dog Party, which has fought the government with irreverent humor, had urged people to purposely cast an invalid ballot, which, in sufficient numbers, they hoped would deny the government its 50 percent threshold. | |
| Voting on Sunday morning in Budapest, Mr. Orban said that while a valid result was certainly better than an invalid one, there would be “legal consequences” in either event, as long as there were more no votes than yes votes. | |
| “According to us, only the Hungarian Parliament can decide with whom Hungarians want to live,” he said. “We will make sure this is enshrined in our legal system if it is valid or invalid.” | “According to us, only the Hungarian Parliament can decide with whom Hungarians want to live,” he said. “We will make sure this is enshrined in our legal system if it is valid or invalid.” |
| Jobbik, a far-right party, had reluctantly urged its members to support the government and vote no. | |
| Only Mr. Fodor’s tiny Liberal Party urged citizens to vote yes, arguing that the referendum should be seen as a measure of support for the European Union. | |