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Red States, Blue States: Does This Map Look Familiar? Red States, Blue States: Does This Map Look Familiar?
(about 2 hours later)
Sometimes it seems that the 2016 election season is nothing like the 2012 one.Sometimes it seems that the 2016 election season is nothing like the 2012 one.
The 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, has called the 2016 G.O.P. nominee, Donald J. Trump, “a phony” and “a fraud.” And Mr. Trump has been thought to be in danger of losing red states like Georgia and Arizona, even South Carolina.The 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, has called the 2016 G.O.P. nominee, Donald J. Trump, “a phony” and “a fraud.” And Mr. Trump has been thought to be in danger of losing red states like Georgia and Arizona, even South Carolina.
On the other side, Hillary Clinton has record-low favorability ratings for a Democratic nominee. She is showing vulnerability in some states that President Obama won twice fairly easily, like Nevada and particularly Iowa.On the other side, Hillary Clinton has record-low favorability ratings for a Democratic nominee. She is showing vulnerability in some states that President Obama won twice fairly easily, like Nevada and particularly Iowa.
But a look at The Upshot forecasting model shows a different picture. If the predictions for each state hold, the November election would match the 2012 Electoral College result in every respect except one: The Democrats would win North Carolina. But a look at The Upshot forecasting model shows a different picture. If the predictions for each state hold, the November election will match the 2012 Electoral College result in every respect except one: The Democrats would win North Carolina.
That North Carolina result would hardly be a surprise, of course: It has been a razor’s-edge state for three straight elections. President Obama won it in 2008 by 0.4 of a percentage point over John McCain, then lost it by two points to Mr. Romney four years later. Mrs. Clinton leads there by a mere 1.4 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average. The Upshot forecasting model gives her a narrow edge of 63-37, and the FiveThirtyEight model has it even closer, with a 53 percent chance for a Clinton victory.That North Carolina result would hardly be a surprise, of course: It has been a razor’s-edge state for three straight elections. President Obama won it in 2008 by 0.4 of a percentage point over John McCain, then lost it by two points to Mr. Romney four years later. Mrs. Clinton leads there by a mere 1.4 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average. The Upshot forecasting model gives her a narrow edge of 63-37, and the FiveThirtyEight model has it even closer, with a 53 percent chance for a Clinton victory.
In polarized America, it seems, there are red states and blue states, and nothing much else matters. How locked in has the electoral map been over the last decade? If The Upshot model predictions prove correct, with Mrs. Clinton winning North Carolina, the 2016 map will look exactly like the 2008 map — except that Republicans would win Indiana.In polarized America, it seems, there are red states and blue states, and nothing much else matters. How locked in has the electoral map been over the last decade? If The Upshot model predictions prove correct, with Mrs. Clinton winning North Carolina, the 2016 map will look exactly like the 2008 map — except that Republicans would win Indiana.
Mr. Trump is performing worse among blacks and Hispanics in polling than Mr. Romney did with those groups in the 2012 election, but the difference isn’t vast because there wasn’t much room for Republicans to fall; Mr. Romney performed poorly among those groups four years ago.Mr. Trump is performing worse among blacks and Hispanics in polling than Mr. Romney did with those groups in the 2012 election, but the difference isn’t vast because there wasn’t much room for Republicans to fall; Mr. Romney performed poorly among those groups four years ago.
The biggest difference in this election is probably that Mr. Trump is overperforming among whites without a college education and underperforming among whites with a college education, particularly women. But at least so far, the inflow of one seems to be roughly matching the outflow of the other for the G.O.P.The biggest difference in this election is probably that Mr. Trump is overperforming among whites without a college education and underperforming among whites with a college education, particularly women. But at least so far, the inflow of one seems to be roughly matching the outflow of the other for the G.O.P.
Which brings us to another perhaps surprising similarity between this election and the 2012 version. Mr. Obama won in 2012 by 3.9 percentage points over Mr. Romney. If you combine the polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, The Huffington Post and The New York Times, Mrs. Clinton is leading Mr. Trump by 3.7 percentage points. Which brings us to another surprising similarity between this election and the 2012 version. Mr. Obama won in 2012 by 3.9 percentage points over Mr. Romney. If you combine the polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, The Huffington Post and The New York Times, Mrs. Clinton is leading Mr. Trump by 3.7 percentage points.