A Setback for Ms. Merkel

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/opinion/a-setback-for-ms-merkel.html

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The humiliation that Germany’s ruling Christian Democrats suffered in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, pushed to third place behind a nationalist, anti-immigrant party, is not good news. The results are a repudiation of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s liberal refugee policy, and they follow a continentwide rise of far-right parties feeding on fears of terrorism and resentment of refugees. With such a poor showing in a state where Ms. Merkel’s constituency is based, the chancellor suddenly seems vulnerable as she considers whether to run in next year’s general election.

But it is far too early to cross off Ms. Merkel, who has been chancellor for 11 years and has earned great respect as a world leader. Her decision a year ago to open Germany’s borders to refugees was courageous and just. She has weathered many political crises before with her instinct for pragmatism and compromise. Her approval rating in Germany is at a five-year low but is still 45 percent — a strong showing on a continent in turmoil, when President François Hollande of France has been polling under 20 percent this summer.

Sunday’s vote should be seen in context: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is one of the poorest and least-populated states in Germany. It was formerly part of East Germany, and anti-immigrant sentiments have been strong in the former East Europe. All major parties in the state lost votes to Alternative for Germany, a party that got its start opposing bailouts for Greece and then exploited the refugee crisis. The state will continue to be governed by a coalition of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, like the one Ms. Merkel heads at the federal level.

She acknowledged that the refugee issue was a major cause of the drubbing but said “the decisions made were right and we have to continue to work on them.” They were right, and her government, which has led the European Union in managing the crisis, should continue to do so.

Ms. Merkel also acknowledged that she and her party have lost the trust of some voters. Now that the vote has raised the question of Ms. Merkel’s future, it is bound to be under scrutiny, especially in municipal elections in Lower Saxony on Sunday and state elections in Berlin on Sept. 18.

No politician who has been in office for so long, even one as respected as Ms. Merkel, can, or should, be immune to discussion about whether a party needs to offer new faces. But a bad showing in one atypical state is not a political obituary.