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| Merkel Feels Political Pressure in Germany as Europe Is in Flux | Merkel Feels Political Pressure in Germany as Europe Is in Flux |
| (about 13 hours later) | |
| BERLIN — A year after Chancellor Angela Merkel threw open the doors to hundreds of thousands of migrants, that fateful move is haunting her politically, opening her to a strong electoral challenge from the far right this weekend and complicating efforts to forge a united response to Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. | BERLIN — A year after Chancellor Angela Merkel threw open the doors to hundreds of thousands of migrants, that fateful move is haunting her politically, opening her to a strong electoral challenge from the far right this weekend and complicating efforts to forge a united response to Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. |
| Ms. Merkel, chancellor since fall 2005 and Europe’s longest serving leader, has found herself on the defensive in a round of interviews on both the anniversary of the refugee influx and the effective start of campaigning for next year’s national elections. | Ms. Merkel, chancellor since fall 2005 and Europe’s longest serving leader, has found herself on the defensive in a round of interviews on both the anniversary of the refugee influx and the effective start of campaigning for next year’s national elections. |
| “Germany will remain Germany, with all that is dear to us,” she insisted in an interview this week with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, a leading newspaper. | “Germany will remain Germany, with all that is dear to us,” she insisted in an interview this week with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, a leading newspaper. |
| With everything in flux in Europe after the stunning British vote to exit the European Union, and elections also in France and the Netherlands next year, Ms. Merkel has come under increasing fire at home. | With everything in flux in Europe after the stunning British vote to exit the European Union, and elections also in France and the Netherlands next year, Ms. Merkel has come under increasing fire at home. |
| Her approval rating in a widely regarded monthly poll for the public broadcaster ARD slipped to 47 percent in August, compared with 75 percent in April 2015, before the refugee challenge. | Her approval rating in a widely regarded monthly poll for the public broadcaster ARD slipped to 47 percent in August, compared with 75 percent in April 2015, before the refugee challenge. |
| If national elections were held now, her conservative bloc would get 33 percent of the vote, according to a Forsa Institute poll of 2,503 selected respondents published on Wednesday. That compares with just over 41 percent in the last national vote in 2013. | If national elections were held now, her conservative bloc would get 33 percent of the vote, according to a Forsa Institute poll of 2,503 selected respondents published on Wednesday. That compares with just over 41 percent in the last national vote in 2013. |
| An early indication of the political troubles ahead could arrive on Sunday, when the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has risen largely on popular fears of the mostly Muslim newcomers, threatens to overtake Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in elections in her political home state. | An early indication of the political troubles ahead could arrive on Sunday, when the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has risen largely on popular fears of the mostly Muslim newcomers, threatens to overtake Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in elections in her political home state. |
| Such an outcome would be a stinging rebuke of her migrant policies. Opinion polls show the two parties neck and neck, hovering just over 20 percent in a statistical dead heat in the state, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, one of Germany’s poorest regions in the former East. | Such an outcome would be a stinging rebuke of her migrant policies. Opinion polls show the two parties neck and neck, hovering just over 20 percent in a statistical dead heat in the state, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, one of Germany’s poorest regions in the former East. |
| “The failed policy of the chancellor is a stroke of luck for our party,” said Alexander Gauland, a leader of Alternative for Germany. “It drives voters towards us.” | “The failed policy of the chancellor is a stroke of luck for our party,” said Alexander Gauland, a leader of Alternative for Germany. “It drives voters towards us.” |
| By opening Germany’s borders to all last year without consulting even one member of Parliament, he added, Ms. Merkel behaved like a dictator. “It is regarded by just about every European leader as an act of madness,” he said. | By opening Germany’s borders to all last year without consulting even one member of Parliament, he added, Ms. Merkel behaved like a dictator. “It is regarded by just about every European leader as an act of madness,” he said. |
| In tacit acknowledgment of critics who say she consulted nobody on the refugee move, Ms. Merkel has embarked on a listening tour of Europe to try to repair relations. In Tallinn, the Estonian prime minister effusively thanked her for her leadership. | In tacit acknowledgment of critics who say she consulted nobody on the refugee move, Ms. Merkel has embarked on a listening tour of Europe to try to repair relations. In Tallinn, the Estonian prime minister effusively thanked her for her leadership. |
| But it was plain in Warsaw, where she met the four Central European leaders who have flatly refused to take in refugees, that she was not among friends. | But it was plain in Warsaw, where she met the four Central European leaders who have flatly refused to take in refugees, that she was not among friends. |
| A host of other demands — from Italy and France for looser purse strings, from Scandinavian and Dutch leaders to beware of fading support for Europe in their countries — are tugging at Ms. Merkel as she and President François Hollande of France consult the Continent’s leaders. | A host of other demands — from Italy and France for looser purse strings, from Scandinavian and Dutch leaders to beware of fading support for Europe in their countries — are tugging at Ms. Merkel as she and President François Hollande of France consult the Continent’s leaders. |
| They will succeed, at least on paper, in sketching some grand goals for Europe to be announced at a meeting of 27 nations — all of the bloc’s members save Britain — in mid-September. | They will succeed, at least on paper, in sketching some grand goals for Europe to be announced at a meeting of 27 nations — all of the bloc’s members save Britain — in mid-September. |
| But no one has so far explained how Europe is likely this time, for example, to reduce youth unemployment, a goal voiced for years and reiterated since Britain voted on June 23 to leave the union. | But no one has so far explained how Europe is likely this time, for example, to reduce youth unemployment, a goal voiced for years and reiterated since Britain voted on June 23 to leave the union. |
| Missing goals again is not likely to enhance Europeans’ faith in the bloc. “The chief concern should be for the attractiveness of the union,” said Guntram B. Wolff, director of the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. | Missing goals again is not likely to enhance Europeans’ faith in the bloc. “The chief concern should be for the attractiveness of the union,” said Guntram B. Wolff, director of the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. |
| Security, both internal and external, may be one area of action after terrorist attacks in Belgium, France and Germany this year. The French and German interior ministers have announced enhanced security measures that are likely to be adopted across the Continent. | Security, both internal and external, may be one area of action after terrorist attacks in Belgium, France and Germany this year. The French and German interior ministers have announced enhanced security measures that are likely to be adopted across the Continent. |
| With Britain, one of Europe’s two nuclear powers, looking for the exit, it is no longer in a position to hamper moves toward what France, Germany and Poland defined this week as “a European civil and military planning and command capacity.” | With Britain, one of Europe’s two nuclear powers, looking for the exit, it is no longer in a position to hamper moves toward what France, Germany and Poland defined this week as “a European civil and military planning and command capacity.” |
| That will also require “development of a strong and competitive defense economy in Europe,” the foreign ministers of the three countries declared. | That will also require “development of a strong and competitive defense economy in Europe,” the foreign ministers of the three countries declared. |
| Even Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary and Ms. Merkel’s most implacable opponent on refugees, seems to agree. | Even Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary and Ms. Merkel’s most implacable opponent on refugees, seems to agree. |
| In Warsaw, he bluntly said that Europe had failed to master economic challenges and that “we have no answers to the migrant crisis.” But, he added, “security takes first place.” | In Warsaw, he bluntly said that Europe had failed to master economic challenges and that “we have no answers to the migrant crisis.” But, he added, “security takes first place.” |
| “We want to build up a shared European army, common European forces,” he continued. | “We want to build up a shared European army, common European forces,” he continued. |
| How far any such plans progress is as uncertain as Ms. Merkel’s political future. | How far any such plans progress is as uncertain as Ms. Merkel’s political future. |
| Analysts and politicians across the board see no serious challenger to Ms. Merkel, who has coyly said only that she will announce “at the given time” whether she will seek a fourth term next year. | Analysts and politicians across the board see no serious challenger to Ms. Merkel, who has coyly said only that she will announce “at the given time” whether she will seek a fourth term next year. |
| Jacqueline Boysen wrote a 2001 biography of Ms. Merkel, whom she got to know in the 1990s in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the chancellor has her parliamentary constituency. She doubted that Ms. Merkel would leave her giant refugee task half-finished, or her party in the lurch, by declining to run. | Jacqueline Boysen wrote a 2001 biography of Ms. Merkel, whom she got to know in the 1990s in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the chancellor has her parliamentary constituency. She doubted that Ms. Merkel would leave her giant refugee task half-finished, or her party in the lurch, by declining to run. |
| “It would be unlike her to leave the party in a mess,” said Ms. Boysen, now a journalist in Berlin. “She is very much aware of duty.” | “It would be unlike her to leave the party in a mess,” said Ms. Boysen, now a journalist in Berlin. “She is very much aware of duty.” |
| She also emphasized that Ms. Merkel, a trained physicist who entered politics only as Germany unified in 1990, had constantly been underestimated. “She was not taken seriously,” Ms. Boysen recalled in an interview. “The subtext was always, ‘She can’t do it.’ ” | She also emphasized that Ms. Merkel, a trained physicist who entered politics only as Germany unified in 1990, had constantly been underestimated. “She was not taken seriously,” Ms. Boysen recalled in an interview. “The subtext was always, ‘She can’t do it.’ ” |
| In defense of her decision last year, Ms. Merkel trumpets her success in forging a European Union pact with Turkey to stanch the flow of refugees into the Balkans. But Turkey has proved a difficult partner, purging thousands of judges, teachers, journalists and human rights campaigners after a failed coup in July. | |
| Still, in an interview with ARD this week, Ms. Merkel could not resist a little smile as she noted that NATO began a mission to save refugees in the Aegean in just five days in the spring, and that the pact with Turkey was negotiated within months. | |
| “Many people said, ‘We can’t do this,’ and then it got done,” she said. | “Many people said, ‘We can’t do this,’ and then it got done,” she said. |