'Can Trump Win on Native Soil?' diff viewer (1/2)

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Can Trump Win on Native Soil?	Can Trump Win on Native Soil?
2016-09-01 15:55:16 UTC	2016-09-08 12:05:07 UTC (7 days later)
Before setting off on Wednesday to visit Enrique Peña Nieto, the president of Mexico, Donald Trump appeared to be making a feint toward equivocation on immigration and trade. But with less than 10 weeks to go before Election Day, a blustering Trump told an expectant audience in Arizona that he wasn’t reneging on his signature promise. After failing to address the issue with Nieto in a serious way — bringing back nothing concrete and providing no further details — he blithely told a rally in Phoenix:	Before setting off on Wednesday to visit Enrique Peña Nieto, the president of Mexico, Donald Trump appeared to be making a feint toward equivocation on immigration and trade. But with less than 10 weeks to go before Election Day, a blustering Trump told an expectant audience in Arizona that he wasn’t reneging on his signature promise. After failing to address the issue with Peña Nieto in a serious way — bringing back nothing concrete and providing no further details — he blithely told a rally in Phoenix:
The election still must be won on native ground, though, and all flimflam aside, Trump still faces a narrow Electoral College pathway to 270 votes.	The election still must be won on native ground, though, and all flimflam aside, Trump still faces a narrow Electoral College pathway to 270 votes.
That’s where New Hampshire comes in — New Hampshire, where a measly 11 percent of voters say immigration is their top issue, and where Trump’s Mexican theatrics have little purchase.	That’s where New Hampshire comes in — New Hampshire, where a measly 11 percent of voters say immigration is their top issue, and where Trump’s Mexican theatrics have little purchase.
The most striking thing about the less than impressive Trump rally in Manchester, N.H., I attended last week was the near complete absence of any of the state’s prominent Republicans.	The most striking thing about the less than impressive Trump rally in Manchester, N.H., I attended last week was the near complete absence of any of the state’s prominent Republicans.
In normal times, you could not keep ambitions politicians away from an opportunity to meet and greet 800-plus voters two weeks ahead of the state primary on Sept. 13, and with Election Day in sight.	In normal times, you could not keep ambitions politicians away from an opportunity to meet and greet 800-plus voters two weeks ahead of the state primary on Sept. 13, and with Election Day in sight.
Not so with Trump at the top of the ticket. A sole beleaguered Congressman showed up, Frank Guinta, hoping his loyalty to Trump would pay off in November despite a campaign finance scandal that is hurting his re-election bid.	Not so with Trump at the top of the ticket. A sole beleaguered Congressman showed up, Frank Guinta, hoping his loyalty to Trump would pay off in November despite a campaign finance scandal that is hurting his re-election bid.
Other Republicans in tough races in New Hampshire have decided that sticking with Trump is a losing bet in a state that has moved from red to purple. They are keeping him at arm’s length.	Other Republicans in tough races in New Hampshire have decided that sticking with Trump is a losing bet in a state that has moved from red to purple. They are keeping him at arm’s length.
Senator Kelly Ayotte, elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010, was nowhere to be found in Manchester. She has distanced herself from the Trump campaign as her convoluted equivocation — “While he has my vote he doesn’t have my endorsement” — has drawn national attention, and, in some quarters, ridicule.	Senator Kelly Ayotte, elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010, was nowhere to be found in Manchester. She has distanced herself from the Trump campaign as her convoluted equivocation — “While he has my vote he doesn’t have my endorsement” — has drawn national attention, and, in some quarters, ridicule.
Facing a tough challenge from Maggie Hassan, the Democratic Governor, Ayotte, who campaigned long and hard for Mitt Romney in 2012, has tried to describe what she calls a “big distinction.”	Facing a tough challenge from Maggie Hassan, the Democratic Governor, Ayotte, who campaigned long and hard for Mitt Romney in 2012, has tried to describe what she calls a “big distinction.”
On one hand, she said “Everyone gets a vote, I do too.” On the other, “an endorsement is when you are campaigning with someone.”	On one hand, she said “Everyone gets a vote, I do too.” On the other, “an endorsement is when you are campaigning with someone.”
While this is just the kind of distinction without a difference voters are suspicious of, Ayotte is very clearly not campaigning with Trump.	While this is just the kind of distinction without a difference voters are suspicious of, Ayotte is very clearly not campaigning with Trump.
Rich Ashooh, a businessman from Bedford, N.H., who is running against Guinta in the Republican primary, ducks and weaves on the topic of Trump. When Paul Steinhauser, political director of NH1 TV, asked him if he would campaign with Trump, Ashooh said:	Rich Ashooh, a businessman from Bedford, N.H., who is running against Guinta in the Republican primary, ducks and weaves on the topic of Trump. When Paul Steinhauser, political director of NH1 TV, asked him if he would campaign with Trump, Ashooh said:
The bottom line is that an unusually high percentage of Republican voters in New Hampshire find Trump unacceptable. A recent WBUR poll reported that only 63 percent of self-identified Republicans said they would vote for him. The remainder includes 14 percent who plan to defect to Clinton, 14 percent who plan to vote for third party candidates and 10 percent who remain undecided.	The bottom line is that an unusually high percentage of Republican voters in New Hampshire find Trump unacceptable. A recent WBUR poll reported that only 63 percent of self-identified Republicans said they would vote for him. The remainder includes 14 percent who plan to defect to Clinton, 14 percent who plan to vote for third party candidates and 10 percent who remain undecided.
In contrast — at least before the latest Clinton foundation revelations — New Hampshire Democrats were solidly in Hillary Clinton’s camp. The WBUR survey found that 86 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton, while 4 percent would vote for Trump; 8 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate and one percent said they were undecided.	In contrast — at least before the latest Clinton foundation revelations — New Hampshire Democrats were solidly in Hillary Clinton’s camp. The WBUR survey found that 86 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton, while 4 percent would vote for Trump; 8 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate and one percent said they were undecided.
Even more troubling for local Republican candidates is the finding that independent voters favor Clinton over Trump by better than two to one, 49-23.	Even more troubling for local Republican candidates is the finding that independent voters favor Clinton over Trump by better than two to one, 49-23.
A higher than average share of New Hampshire voters do not align with either party — pollsters estimate that 15 to 17 percent fall into this category — and they play a crucial role in determining the outcome of general elections.	A higher than average share of New Hampshire voters do not align with either party — pollsters estimate that 15 to 17 percent fall into this category — and they play a crucial role in determining the outcome of general elections.
Democrats, for their part, are doing everything they can to turn Trump into a Republican albatross.	Democrats, for their part, are doing everything they can to turn Trump into a Republican albatross.
Maggie Hassan repeatedly links Ayotte to Trump. In one recent week, Governor Hassan issued eight Ayotte/Trump press releases, starting with “In Just One Interview, Ayotte Praises Trump, Doubles Down on Raising Social Security Eligibility Age & More” and moving on to “In Two Interviews, Ayotte Refuses Multiple Times to Say Whether She Trusts Trump with Nuclear Arsenal” by the end of the week.	Maggie Hassan repeatedly links Ayotte to Trump. In one recent week, Governor Hassan issued eight Ayotte/Trump press releases, starting with “In Just One Interview, Ayotte Praises Trump, Doubles Down on Raising Social Security Eligibility Age & More” and moving on to “In Two Interviews, Ayotte Refuses Multiple Times to Say Whether She Trusts Trump with Nuclear Arsenal” by the end of the week.
New Hampshire, once one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, began to shift in a Democratic direction in 1992. From 1992 to 2012, Democratic presidential candidates carried the state in every election except 2000. Democratic candidates have also won nine of the last 10 gubernatorial elections, which take place every two years.	New Hampshire, once one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, began to shift in a Democratic direction in 1992. From 1992 to 2012, Democratic presidential candidates carried the state in every election except 2000. Democratic candidates have also won nine of the last 10 gubernatorial elections, which take place every two years.
But Democrats are by no means guaranteed victory. The state’s two Senate and two House seats are split between the parties. The 2016 Senate race is a virtual tie, with Hassan holding a 1 point edge over Ayotte, according to RealClearPolitics.	But Democrats are by no means guaranteed victory. The state’s two Senate and two House seats are split between the parties. The 2016 Senate race is a virtual tie, with Hassan holding a 1 point edge over Ayotte, according to RealClearPolitics.
New Hampshire reflects many of the difficulties facing the Trump campaign.	New Hampshire reflects many of the difficulties facing the Trump campaign.
First, take a central Trump theme, that the American economy is in crisis: “The businesses are being sucked out of our country,” Trump told voters in April in Evansville, Indiana:	First, take a central Trump theme, that the American economy is in crisis: “The businesses are being sucked out of our country,” Trump told voters in April in Evansville, Indiana:
That simply does not ring true in New Hampshire, where the unemployment rate in July was 2.9 percent, well below the 4.9 percent national rate. Nor does it ring true in other battleground states where Trump is behind.	That simply does not ring true in New Hampshire, where the unemployment rate in July was 2.9 percent, well below the 4.9 percent national rate. Nor does it ring true in other battleground states where Trump is behind.
In North Carolina, the unemployment rate is 4.7 percent; according to RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 1.7 point lead. In Colorado, the unemployment rate is 3.8 percent; Clinton leads Trump by 11.8 points. In Virginia, unemployment is 3.7 percent; Clinton is ahead by 12.8 points.	In North Carolina, the unemployment rate is 4.7 percent; according to RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 1.7 point lead. In Colorado, the unemployment rate is 3.8 percent; Clinton leads Trump by 11.8 points. In Virginia, unemployment is 3.7 percent; Clinton is ahead by 12.8 points.
Second, Trump’s Manchester rally itself raises a basic question: Why was the Republican presidential nominee spending valuable time in New Hampshire, a state with a paltry four Electoral College votes? His trip here last Thursday was his second this summer and his fourth since he won big in the state primary in February.	Second, Trump’s Manchester rally itself raises a basic question: Why was the Republican presidential nominee spending valuable time in New Hampshire, a state with a paltry four Electoral College votes? His trip here last Thursday was his second this summer and his fourth since he won big in the state primary in February.
What gives? According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is currently 8 points behind Clinton in New Hampshire.	What gives? According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is currently 8 points behind Clinton in New Hampshire.
Joel Benenson, pollster and strategist for the Clinton campaign, said in a phone interview that New Hampshire reflects the national campaign:	Joel Benenson, pollster and strategist for the Clinton campaign, said in a phone interview that New Hampshire reflects the national campaign:
Another factor in Trump’s decision to invest a chunk of time in New Hampshire last week is that he has no strong surrogates here to build momentum. With prominent Republicans shunning him, he has to do his own heavy lifting.	Another factor in Trump’s decision to invest a chunk of time in New Hampshire last week is that he has no strong surrogates here to build momentum. With prominent Republicans shunning him, he has to do his own heavy lifting.
Voters I talked to in downtown Concord expressed a strong distaste for both candidates, but generally tilted toward Clinton when pressed.	Voters I talked to in downtown Concord expressed a strong distaste for both candidates, but generally tilted toward Clinton when pressed.
A policewoman ticketing cars on North Main Street initially said she did not like either candidate — “I’m thankful I’m wearing this uniform so I don’t have to answer you.” But as the conversation progressed, she acknowledged that she was almost certain to vote for Clinton. “She wants to help families, jobs, the middle class. There really is no other choice.” As for Trump, “I don’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth.”	A policewoman ticketing cars on North Main Street initially said she did not like either candidate — “I’m thankful I’m wearing this uniform so I don’t have to answer you.” But as the conversation progressed, she acknowledged that she was almost certain to vote for Clinton. “She wants to help families, jobs, the middle class. There really is no other choice.” As for Trump, “I don’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth.”
Jeffery Wells, 51, who told me that he receives annual disability payments of roughly $22,000 for COPD and back trouble, captured the conflicted feelings of some Clinton supporters:	Jeffery Wells, 51, who told me that he receives annual disability payments of roughly $22,000 for COPD and back trouble, captured the conflicted feelings of some Clinton supporters:
Bill and Christine White are independent voters who moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts 15 years ago after they retired. Ms. White, who recalled her support for George McGovern in 1972, said “Trump is the worst candidate I can remember in my life.” Her husband believes that “Hillary is just saying everything people want to hear.” Both Whites plan to vote for a third-party candidate so that, as Bill White said, they can “feel morally right.”	Bill and Christine White are independent voters who moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts 15 years ago after they retired. Ms. White, who recalled her support for George McGovern in 1972, said “Trump is the worst candidate I can remember in my life.” Her husband believes that “Hillary is just saying everything people want to hear.” Both Whites plan to vote for a third-party candidate so that, as Bill White said, they can “feel morally right.”
There are orthodox Republicans who do plan to support Trump.	There are orthodox Republicans who do plan to support Trump.
At a Republican gathering — the Henniker Reception for Jim Lawrence for Congress — held at a brewery 31 miles northwest of Manchester, most of the men and women I spoke with were planning to vote for Trump, although they expressed some ambivalence.	At a Republican gathering — the Henniker Reception for Jim Lawrence for Congress — held at a brewery 31 miles northwest of Manchester, most of the men and women I spoke with were planning to vote for Trump, although they expressed some ambivalence.
They argued that Trump would be more reasonable in the White House than he has been on the campaign trail, and that his experience in business would make him a good chief executive.	They argued that Trump would be more reasonable in the White House than he has been on the campaign trail, and that his experience in business would make him a good chief executive.
“He’s not crazy. You don’t get where he is by being crazy,” said David P. Currier, a former state senator who now is running the Henniker Brewing Company. “He says a lot of things for effect — he’s a New Yorker.”	“He’s not crazy. You don’t get where he is by being crazy,” said David P. Currier, a former state senator who now is running the Henniker Brewing Company. “He says a lot of things for effect — he’s a New Yorker.”
Bob Nash, a state lobbyist for an insurance agents association, said that he is confident that Trump, once in the White House, would be constrained by the American system of government.	Bob Nash, a state lobbyist for an insurance agents association, said that he is confident that Trump, once in the White House, would be constrained by the American system of government.
“I am a firm believer in the check and balances in our system,” Nash said, adding “Trump is an intelligent man, he’s been a successful man all his life.”	“I am a firm believer in the check and balances in our system,” Nash said, adding “Trump is an intelligent man, he’s been a successful man all his life.”