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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| ‘Brexit’ Vote Feeds Scotland’s Alienation | ‘Brexit’ Vote Feeds Scotland’s Alienation |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| EDINBURGH — You just have to look at the map. | EDINBURGH — You just have to look at the map. |
| In the June 23 referendum on British membership in the European Union, Scotland is one pristine color, voting to remain, while England and Wales are a different color, voting to leave. | In the June 23 referendum on British membership in the European Union, Scotland is one pristine color, voting to remain, while England and Wales are a different color, voting to leave. |
| Similarly, in the May 2015 general elections, Scotland is again a different color from the south; the abject collapse of the Labour Party here left Scotland nearly a one-party state, run by the Scottish National Party, which was founded to bring Scotland independence from the rest of the United Kingdom. | Similarly, in the May 2015 general elections, Scotland is again a different color from the south; the abject collapse of the Labour Party here left Scotland nearly a one-party state, run by the Scottish National Party, which was founded to bring Scotland independence from the rest of the United Kingdom. |
| Scottish nationalists lost a referendum on independence in September 2014, by 55 percent to 45 percent. But so many people, especially the young, were motivated by the campaign that they nearly quintupled the membership of the left-wing S.N.P. Only a year later, the party won 50 percent of the vote and 56 of 59 Scottish seats at Westminster. | Scottish nationalists lost a referendum on independence in September 2014, by 55 percent to 45 percent. But so many people, especially the young, were motivated by the campaign that they nearly quintupled the membership of the left-wing S.N.P. Only a year later, the party won 50 percent of the vote and 56 of 59 Scottish seats at Westminster. |
| The vote for a British exit, or Brexit, swung by England and Wales, felt crushing to the Scots, who have strongly favored membership in the European Union and its single market, feeding their alienation from the Conservative-led United Kingdom. | The vote for a British exit, or Brexit, swung by England and Wales, felt crushing to the Scots, who have strongly favored membership in the European Union and its single market, feeding their alienation from the Conservative-led United Kingdom. |
| The day after the exit vote, the Scottish leader, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon of the S.N.P., said that another referendum on Scottish independence was “highly likely” and that Scotland was being “dragged out of the E.U. against our will.” Polling since shows an increase in support for independence. | The day after the exit vote, the Scottish leader, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon of the S.N.P., said that another referendum on Scottish independence was “highly likely” and that Scotland was being “dragged out of the E.U. against our will.” Polling since shows an increase in support for independence. |
| At the Edinburgh Festival this week, street musicians played “Ode to Joy,” the anthem of the European Union, and supporters of quitting Europe were hard to find. | At the Edinburgh Festival this week, street musicians played “Ode to Joy,” the anthem of the European Union, and supporters of quitting Europe were hard to find. |
| But despite everything, another independence referendum feels far away. | But despite everything, another independence referendum feels far away. |
| Business leaders and even some nationalists caution that too much is now in play, and that to lose a second vote would be fatal to Ms. Sturgeon’s leadership, as the loss of the first one was to her predecessor, Alex Salmond. | Business leaders and even some nationalists caution that too much is now in play, and that to lose a second vote would be fatal to Ms. Sturgeon’s leadership, as the loss of the first one was to her predecessor, Alex Salmond. |
| How Britain will manage its departure from the European Union and under what conditions remains wholly unclear. How much duty-free access to the European single market will there be, and for what sectors? Scotland, its oil revenues sinking, has concerns about access to European markets that are not the same as London’s, even if Scotland’s trade with the rest of the United Kingdom is worth four times that with the European Union, as former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has pointed out. | How Britain will manage its departure from the European Union and under what conditions remains wholly unclear. How much duty-free access to the European single market will there be, and for what sectors? Scotland, its oil revenues sinking, has concerns about access to European markets that are not the same as London’s, even if Scotland’s trade with the rest of the United Kingdom is worth four times that with the European Union, as former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has pointed out. |
| It is not even certain that Britain will Brexit, even after invoking Article 50, which will start two years of negotiations with Brussels. If the deal that finally emerges is bad, the British government might ask for another referendum. In any case, the next few years are full of uncertainty. So what’s the rush? | It is not even certain that Britain will Brexit, even after invoking Article 50, which will start two years of negotiations with Brussels. If the deal that finally emerges is bad, the British government might ask for another referendum. In any case, the next few years are full of uncertainty. So what’s the rush? |
| Further, the relationship of an independent Scotland with the European Union is hardly obvious. Would Scotland have to apply as a beginner, and promise to adopt the euro? Would Spain, which wants to dissuade Catalonia from independence, veto Scottish membership? | Further, the relationship of an independent Scotland with the European Union is hardly obvious. Would Scotland have to apply as a beginner, and promise to adopt the euro? Would Spain, which wants to dissuade Catalonia from independence, veto Scottish membership? |
| Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain was blunt in June. “If the U.K. leaves, so does Scotland,” he said. “The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the U.K. I’m radically against it, the treaties are radically against it, and I think everyone else is radically against it.” | Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain was blunt in June. “If the U.K. leaves, so does Scotland,” he said. “The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the U.K. I’m radically against it, the treaties are radically against it, and I think everyone else is radically against it.” |
| And if Britain does leave the European Union, and Scotland then votes to leave the United Kingdom, the same questions pertain, as well as others like the size of Scotland’s budget deficit, which is now 9.5 percent of gross domestic product, twice that of Britain as a whole and three times the level Brussels allows of new members. | |
| Consequently, many believe that Ms. Sturgeon is actually using the threat of another referendum to increase her bargaining power with the British prime minister, Theresa May, over the exit negotiations. Ms. Sturgeon wants to maintain access to the single market, but at the same time, she must keep faith with party members who consider Brexit another obvious and legitimate reason to quit the kingdom. | Consequently, many believe that Ms. Sturgeon is actually using the threat of another referendum to increase her bargaining power with the British prime minister, Theresa May, over the exit negotiations. Ms. Sturgeon wants to maintain access to the single market, but at the same time, she must keep faith with party members who consider Brexit another obvious and legitimate reason to quit the kingdom. |
| Menzies Campbell, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats, described Ms. Sturgeon as a thoughtful gradualist at heart, who must manage nationalist passions with an eye toward Scotland’s best interests and its best chance at independence. | Menzies Campbell, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats, described Ms. Sturgeon as a thoughtful gradualist at heart, who must manage nationalist passions with an eye toward Scotland’s best interests and its best chance at independence. |
| “She describes herself as a utilitarian nationalist, that is to say not nationalist as an end to itself but a means to an end,” Mr. Campbell said. “That’s not a view necessarily held in her party or among the many thousands who joined the S.N.P. after the referendum.” | “She describes herself as a utilitarian nationalist, that is to say not nationalist as an end to itself but a means to an end,” Mr. Campbell said. “That’s not a view necessarily held in her party or among the many thousands who joined the S.N.P. after the referendum.” |
| Even those who consider Scottish independence inevitable think it must wait until popular support solidifies. The usual line, even from Ms. Sturgeon, is that opinion polls should consistently show 60 percent in favor before nationalists risk another vote. Her real challenge is to win over those who were tempted by independence in 2014 but voted “no” because of economic uncertainties. | |
| Ms. Sturgeon and her party, while generally praised for competence, have some serious domestic problems, like the quality of education and public health and the struggle to maintain generous social benefits in an economy that is slowing because of lower oil revenue. She recently announced another 100 million pounds ($132 million) for new infrastructure projects, to promote jobs. So there is work to do at home. | |
| And in Ruth Davidson, the combative, funny leader of the Conservative Party in Scotland, Ms. Sturgeon has a lively opponent. The other day, Ms. Davidson accused her of “cynical posturing,” trying to “twist the disappointment” felt in Scotland by the Brexit vote into “support for separation,” which Ms. Davidson opposes. | |
| “I did not vote ‘Remain’ to see the S.N.P. use my vote to nurture yet more grievance,” she said. Instead, she urged Ms. Sturgeon to drop talk of independence and “turn our full attention” to Scotland’s future. But for Ms. Sturgeon, the two are the same. | “I did not vote ‘Remain’ to see the S.N.P. use my vote to nurture yet more grievance,” she said. Instead, she urged Ms. Sturgeon to drop talk of independence and “turn our full attention” to Scotland’s future. But for Ms. Sturgeon, the two are the same. |