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All eyes on Yellen as Jackson Hole kicks off - business live All eyes on Yellen as Jackson Hole kicks off - business live
(35 minutes later)
10.39am BST
10:39
Here is the Guardian’s full story on the second estimate of Q2 growth, which was confirmed at 0.6%:
10.38am BST
10:38
Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics is decidedly gloomy about the outlook for the UK economy. He says consumers will start to feel the pinch from rising inflation next year:
Looking ahead, consumers might be able to maintain strong growth in their spending for another quarter, but when inflation picks up in earnest early next year and firms follow through on plans to freeze hiring, they will have to slow down.
Meanwhile, the slight rise in business investment in Q2 provides little reassurance about the post-referendum outlook, since few businesses anticipated the Leave vote and surveys suggest firms are recoiling from major financial commitments in Q3.
As a result, we continue to see a high risk that the economy enters a mild recession over the coming quarters.
10.30am BST
10:30
Deloitte’s chief economist Ian Stewart, says the consumer recovery is going strong:
The UK entered the post-referendum period with good momentum.
Household spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy and is growing at the fastest rate in eight years. We see few signs that Brexit has derailed the consumer recovery.
10.25am BST
10:25
Scott Bowman at Capital Economics, says the Brexit vote will weigh on growth in the second half of the year:
UK households shrugged off pre-referendum uncertainty, driving an acceleration in GDP growth in the second quarter.
Looking ahead, growth looks set to slow significantly in the second half of the year as uncertainty related to the Brexit vote takes its toll.
We think that growth will fall to around zero in Q3 and Q4, mainly due to falls in business investment.
10.11am BST10.11am BST
10:1110:11
Some of the key charts from the ONS’s second estimate of Q2 growth, which came in at 0.6%... Here are three key charts from the second estimate of Q2 growth, which came in at 0.6%...
The UK economy has grown every quarter since the first quarter of 2013 1. The UK economy has grown every quarter since the first quarter of 2013:
On the output side of the economy, only the services sector is back above pre-crisis levels 2. On the output side of the economy, only the services sector is back above pre-crisis levels:
Households shrugged off uncertainty in the run-up to the 23 June referendum, as consumer spending continued to be a key driver of growth 3. Households shrugged off uncertainty in the run-up to the 23 June referendum, as consumer spending continued to be a key driver of growth:
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.13am BST at 10.15am BST
9.56am BST9.56am BST
09:5609:56
Joe Grice, chief economist at the ONS has commented on this mornings figures which confirmed the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter, following 0.4% growth in the first quarter.Joe Grice, chief economist at the ONS has commented on this mornings figures which confirmed the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter, following 0.4% growth in the first quarter.
Today’s figures reinforce the picture that the economy grew strongly in April, and then remained relatively flat in May and June.Today’s figures reinforce the picture that the economy grew strongly in April, and then remained relatively flat in May and June.
Business investment grew in the second quarter, partly thanks to companies spending on transport equipment such as cars and planes. However, levels of investment remained lower than at the same period last year.Business investment grew in the second quarter, partly thanks to companies spending on transport equipment such as cars and planes. However, levels of investment remained lower than at the same period last year.
Our survey returns, which include the period leading up to and immediately following the referendum, show no sign so far of uncertainty having significantly affected investment or GDP.Our survey returns, which include the period leading up to and immediately following the referendum, show no sign so far of uncertainty having significantly affected investment or GDP.
9.48am BST9.48am BST
09:4809:48
ONS: no evidence of Brexit impact on investment in Q2ONS: no evidence of Brexit impact on investment in Q2
The ONS says there is no sign in the GDP data that uncertainty in the run-up to the EU referendum affected investment.The ONS says there is no sign in the GDP data that uncertainty in the run-up to the EU referendum affected investment.
The second estimate of growth (confirmed at 0.6%) gives a more detailed picture of how different parts of the economy performed between April and June. Specifically it shed some light on the spending side.The second estimate of growth (confirmed at 0.6%) gives a more detailed picture of how different parts of the economy performed between April and June. Specifically it shed some light on the spending side.
Business investment increased by 0.5% over the quarter, beating expectations of a 0.8% fall and a 0.6% fall in the first quarter.Business investment increased by 0.5% over the quarter, beating expectations of a 0.8% fall and a 0.6% fall in the first quarter.
Household spending was the strongest in almost two years in the second quarter, up 0.9% from 0.7% in the first quarter.Household spending was the strongest in almost two years in the second quarter, up 0.9% from 0.7% in the first quarter.
In terms of output, services growth was confirmed at 0.5% and industrial output growth was confirmed at 2.1%.In terms of output, services growth was confirmed at 0.5% and industrial output growth was confirmed at 2.1%.
Construction output was revised down however, falling by 0.7% and not 0.4% as initially thought.Construction output was revised down however, falling by 0.7% and not 0.4% as initially thought.
#UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.6% q/q in Q2, driven by consumer spending jumping 0.9% q/q. Business investment up 0.5% q/q. Net trade -ve#UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.6% q/q in Q2, driven by consumer spending jumping 0.9% q/q. Business investment up 0.5% q/q. Net trade -ve
9.31am BST9.31am BST
09:3109:31
Breaking: UK economy grows 0.6 in second quarterBreaking: UK economy grows 0.6 in second quarter
Growth of 0.6% in the second quarter has been confirmed by the Office for National Statistics.Growth of 0.6% in the second quarter has been confirmed by the Office for National Statistics.
More soon.More soon.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.34am BSTat 9.34am BST
9.17am BST9.17am BST
09:1709:17
French consumer confidence rises in AugustFrench consumer confidence rises in August
French consumer confidence ticked up in August, to 97 from 96 in July.French consumer confidence ticked up in August, to 97 from 96 in July.
It followed a drop in confidence in the previous two months according to the INSEE figures.It followed a drop in confidence in the previous two months according to the INSEE figures.
Confidence among households about their personal finance situation improved sharply, jumping seven points to highest level since October 2007.Confidence among households about their personal finance situation improved sharply, jumping seven points to highest level since October 2007.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.18am BSTat 9.18am BST
9.09am BST9.09am BST
09:0909:09
French GDP: zero growth in second quarterFrench GDP: zero growth in second quarter
The French economy was flat in the second quarter, a second estimate of GDP from the statistics office INSEE showed.The French economy was flat in the second quarter, a second estimate of GDP from the statistics office INSEE showed.
Zero growth between April and June followed 0.7% growth in the first quarter.Zero growth between April and June followed 0.7% growth in the first quarter.
INSEE said there was a sharp slowdown in household spending, while trade made a positive contribution after imports fell more than exports.INSEE said there was a sharp slowdown in household spending, while trade made a positive contribution after imports fell more than exports.
8.34am BST8.34am BST
08:3408:34
European markets are subdued before Yellen speaksEuropean markets are subdued before Yellen speaks
There is little movement in European markets this morning as investors await Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole.There is little movement in European markets this morning as investors await Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole.
They will be looking for clues from the Fed chair about whether to expect the next rise in US interest rates in September, December, or 2017.They will be looking for clues from the Fed chair about whether to expect the next rise in US interest rates in September, December, or 2017.
Traders this week waiting for Yellen.... #JacksonHole pic.twitter.com/XiedPfx9SgTraders this week waiting for Yellen.... #JacksonHole pic.twitter.com/XiedPfx9Sg
8.22am BST8.22am BST
08:2208:22
The Jackson Hole economic symposium has been hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978.The Jackson Hole economic symposium has been hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978.
Representing the Bank of England are Minouche Shafik, deputy governor for markets and banking, and Kristin Forbes, an external member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee.Representing the Bank of England are Minouche Shafik, deputy governor for markets and banking, and Kristin Forbes, an external member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney, and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, will not attend.Bank of England governor Mark Carney, and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, will not attend.
A look at Jackson Hole summits through the years https://t.co/YZSykI2BIA pic.twitter.com/q3R43da6IDA look at Jackson Hole summits through the years https://t.co/YZSykI2BIA pic.twitter.com/q3R43da6ID
8.06am BST8.06am BST
08:0608:06
Also coming up today...Also coming up today...
We will get the second estimate of UK growth in the second-quarter from the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled expect growth to be confirmed at 0.6%.We will get the second estimate of UK growth in the second-quarter from the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled expect growth to be confirmed at 0.6%.
But Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says there is a risk that the number could be revised lower, “particularly since we did see some evidence of a slowdown in late May and June as the referendum date approached”.But Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, says there is a risk that the number could be revised lower, “particularly since we did see some evidence of a slowdown in late May and June as the referendum date approached”.
The latest estimate will provide more details on how the different parts of the economy performed between April and June.The latest estimate will provide more details on how the different parts of the economy performed between April and June.
So far the consumer side of the economy appears to have held up well since the Brexit vote on 23 June, but those numbers as well as business investment figures will be closely scrutinised in the coming months for signs of waning confidence.So far the consumer side of the economy appears to have held up well since the Brexit vote on 23 June, but those numbers as well as business investment figures will be closely scrutinised in the coming months for signs of waning confidence.
In the US (before Yellen speaks at 3pm UK time) we will get the second estimate of Q2 growth from the world’s largest economy.In the US (before Yellen speaks at 3pm UK time) we will get the second estimate of Q2 growth from the world’s largest economy.
7.57am BST7.57am BST
07:5707:57
European markets are expected to open slightly lower this morning as traders pause for breath before Yellen’s speech.European markets are expected to open slightly lower this morning as traders pause for breath before Yellen’s speech.
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6816 down 1$DAX 10519 down 11$CAC 4400 down 6$IBEX 8590 down 10$MIB 16703 down 8Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6816 down 1$DAX 10519 down 11$CAC 4400 down 6$IBEX 8590 down 10$MIB 16703 down 8
7.47am BST7.47am BST
07:4707:47
The agenda: Janet Yellen speaks at Jackson HoleThe agenda: Janet Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
The day has finally arrived. At 8am Mountain Time, or 3pm UK time, the chair of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will deliver her keenly anticipated speech at the 2016 Jackson Hole symposium.The day has finally arrived. At 8am Mountain Time, or 3pm UK time, the chair of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will deliver her keenly anticipated speech at the 2016 Jackson Hole symposium.
The event is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and got underway last night with a reception and dinner at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming.The event is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and got underway last night with a reception and dinner at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming.
The full agenda for the meeting of the world’s central bankers can be found here. This year’s theme is Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.The full agenda for the meeting of the world’s central bankers can be found here. This year’s theme is Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.
But the main event awaited by investors all week is Yellen’s speech. The title of the speech is The Fed’s Monetary Policy Toolkit, but traders and commentators will be looking specifically for any hints on the timing of the next Fed rate rise.But the main event awaited by investors all week is Yellen’s speech. The title of the speech is The Fed’s Monetary Policy Toolkit, but traders and commentators will be looking specifically for any hints on the timing of the next Fed rate rise.
This is what markets have been waiting for all week. We will bring you commentary in the run-up to the speech, the speech itself, and reaction thereafter. Thank you for joining us.This is what markets have been waiting for all week. We will bring you commentary in the run-up to the speech, the speech itself, and reaction thereafter. Thank you for joining us.