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All eyes on Yellen as Jackson Hole kicks off - business live Janet Yellen: case for rate hike 'strengthened in recent months' – live
(35 minutes later)
3.30pm BST
15:30
Also reacting to Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, Lee Ferridge, head of multi-asset strategy at State Street Global Markets North America has shared this view:
“Despite recent hints of an ongoing policy rethink at the FOMC [Federal Open Markets Committee], Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech did not break much new ground. Her comments could help arrest the dollar’s recent decline and deal a blow to the rally in risky assets that we have seen in recent weeks. A move at the September meeting remains less likely but a move before year end now looks a distinct possibility should US data continue to improve.”
3.28pm BST
15:28
Some more reactions coming in to Janet Yellen’s speech now, which as we noted earlier left the markets in a bit of a muddle.
The dollar initially strengthened as the Fed chair hinted at further rate rises but then lost those gains, possibly as the timing of any such tightening seems to be some way off. Similarly, stock markets initially trimmed gains on the prospect of higher interest rates and then rose again when traders had digested Yellen’s remarks and decided it was too soon to worry.
Aberdeen Asset Management fixed income investment manager James Athey comments:
“While the bulk of Yellen’s opening remarks at Jackson Hole focussed on monetary policy over the long term, she stated that in her opinion the case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months. But the lack of any specific signal with regards to the September meeting means markets are unlikely to react adversely to this fairly throwaway comment. Yellen’s comments were largely focussed on the debate around the effectiveness of the Fed’s toolkit.
“Of course she defended the success of previous policy and indeed the ability of the Fed to respond effectively in the future, however she wasn’t shy of highlighting the need for government to assist in the heavy lifting through the use of supportive fiscal policy – a plea we regularly hear from ECB President Mario Draghi.
“However the elephant in the room is that the Fed may well be worshipping at a false idol. There’s more and more evidence to show that inflation just isn’t behaving in the way that economists think it should. The Fed should stop targeting consumer inflation and start looking at a wider suite of measures to judge the health of the economy and the appropriateness of their policy. Sadly it looks like the wide open plains of Wyoming have not inspired any soul searching.”
3.17pm BST
15:17
So it’s a hawkish message from Yellen, but is she telling us anything we didn’t know already?
Well, markets appear to be struggling to make sense of the message from Yellen. US stocks initially trimmed gains only to rise again. The dollar has now reversed its initial gains against the pound and euro.
Here are some of the early reactions (including from UK commentators, who are counting down to a long weekend with a public holiday on Monday):
Main headlines hawkish initially but she's not really saying anything new. #FOMC #Yellen
Therefore weekend starts here
Janet Yellen: Case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months. #jacksonhole. Dollar strengthened. 2, 5, 10 year yield rising.
A Hawkish Yellen Surprises Markets: "The Rate Hike Case Has Strengthened In Recent Months" https://t.co/wWEtcduIEp
#Yellen quick take : case for rate hike strengrhened, lots of similar stuff to Dudley, Fischer; refutes idea Fed out of ammo... ->
@MOstwald1 #Yellen if Fed needs to ease in new downturn, can do more QE, buy different / more stuff with it -> market sees +QE and whoopees
3.07pm BST
15:07
Those remarks on a stronger case for rate hikes in the US have seen US stock markets trim some of their gains and pushed the dollar up against the euro and pound.
This key extract from the speech shows Janet Yellen and her fellow policymakers are still keen to come across as avid data watchers, but she clearly sees a better case for rate rises:
“In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee’s outlook,” she said.
3.04pm BST
15:04
Yellen says case for rate hikes "strengthened in recent months"
Yellen has told her audience at Jackson Hole that the case for raising US interest rates has strengthened in recent months.
She cited improvements in the jobs market and hopes for modest GDP growth.
Here is the full speech.
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pic.twitter.com/iJEar0a4kepic.twitter.com/iJEar0a4ke
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Wall Street opens higher before Yellen speechWall Street opens higher before Yellen speech
US markets are up in early trading as investors await Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole. Twenty minutes to go.US markets are up in early trading as investors await Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole. Twenty minutes to go.
2.36pm BST2.36pm BST
14:3614:36
Before Janet Yellen speaks in less than an hour, there have been some important developments in the cruise liner industry.Before Janet Yellen speaks in less than an hour, there have been some important developments in the cruise liner industry.
David Hasselhoff of Knight Rider and Baywatch fame will set sail on his first official fan cruise on 4 November next year. The six-day tour on Costa Favolosa will begin in Italy and call at various European ports.David Hasselhoff of Knight Rider and Baywatch fame will set sail on his first official fan cruise on 4 November next year. The six-day tour on Costa Favolosa will begin in Italy and call at various European ports.
The ticket price starts at €599 (£513) and “David is on board with you for the duration of the cruiser”, apparently.The ticket price starts at €599 (£513) and “David is on board with you for the duration of the cruiser”, apparently.
Events will include a concert, a get-together with the Hoff, an autograph session and – an evening with David “in the large theatre”....Events will include a concert, a get-together with the Hoff, an autograph session and – an evening with David “in the large theatre”....
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at 2.38pm BSTat 2.38pm BST
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Ben & Jerry’s have recalled some 500ml cartons of their Cookie Dough flavour ice cream over fears they might contain small pieces of metal.Ben & Jerry’s have recalled some 500ml cartons of their Cookie Dough flavour ice cream over fears they might contain small pieces of metal.
Four batches are thought to have been affected and UK customers have been asked to check batch numbers printed at the bottom of their pots.Four batches are thought to have been affected and UK customers have been asked to check batch numbers printed at the bottom of their pots.
The ice-cream maker advised customers to throw the product away if it was from one of the batches. It said in a safety notice:The ice-cream maker advised customers to throw the product away if it was from one of the batches. It said in a safety notice:
The company has identified a specific production period during which Ben & Jerry’s Cookie Dough 500ml may have been affected and, as safety remains a top priority, Ben & Jerry’s is voluntarily recalling four batch codes of Cookie Dough 500ml from sale.The company has identified a specific production period during which Ben & Jerry’s Cookie Dough 500ml may have been affected and, as safety remains a top priority, Ben & Jerry’s is voluntarily recalling four batch codes of Cookie Dough 500ml from sale.
As a precaution, everyone with a 500ml tub of Ben & Jerry’s Cookie Dough in their freezers at home should check the batch number on the bottom of their tub to make sure it’s not affected.As a precaution, everyone with a 500ml tub of Ben & Jerry’s Cookie Dough in their freezers at home should check the batch number on the bottom of their tub to make sure it’s not affected.
And, if it matches the batch numbers listed above, they should not eat the product and, instead, we ask them to discard the product in the usual household bin.And, if it matches the batch numbers listed above, they should not eat the product and, instead, we ask them to discard the product in the usual household bin.
(The batch codes affected are L62110L011, L62111L011, L62112L011 and L62113L011.)(The batch codes affected are L62110L011, L62111L011, L62112L011 and L62113L011.)
Fancy an ice cream anyone?Fancy an ice cream anyone?
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Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro, thinks Janet Yellen should take a cautious approach to her Jackson Hole speech, which is coming up in a hour an a quarter.Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro, thinks Janet Yellen should take a cautious approach to her Jackson Hole speech, which is coming up in a hour an a quarter.
Smith says:Smith says:
Yellen will do her best to sound upbeat on the US economy, but not to tie her hands into tightening policy this year. The Fed has led the market down the garden path once too often on this front, not least at last year’s Jackson Hole summit, so she’d do well to keep her options open this time and not cause a similar furore this year.”Yellen will do her best to sound upbeat on the US economy, but not to tie her hands into tightening policy this year. The Fed has led the market down the garden path once too often on this front, not least at last year’s Jackson Hole summit, so she’d do well to keep her options open this time and not cause a similar furore this year.”
He adds makes the point that central bankers are running out of rope when it comes to monetary policy stimulus:He adds makes the point that central bankers are running out of rope when it comes to monetary policy stimulus:
The issue is that monetary policy is reaching its limits, even the various forms of quantitative easing and negative interest rates being imposed. This is most true for Japan and the eurozone.The issue is that monetary policy is reaching its limits, even the various forms of quantitative easing and negative interest rates being imposed. This is most true for Japan and the eurozone.
That may encourage central bankers to be even more aggressive in their approach, but there are always unintended consequences. This is certainly true in the eurozone, given the costs that negative rates impose on banks and (increasingly) their customers.That may encourage central bankers to be even more aggressive in their approach, but there are always unintended consequences. This is certainly true in the eurozone, given the costs that negative rates impose on banks and (increasingly) their customers.
1.34pm BST1.34pm BST
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US growth revised slightly lower in second quarterUS growth revised slightly lower in second quarter
US GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised down a touch to an annual rate of 1.1%, from an earlier estimate of 1.2%.US GDP growth for the second quarter has been revised down a touch to an annual rate of 1.1%, from an earlier estimate of 1.2%.
The second estimate from the US Commerce Department was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters.The second estimate from the US Commerce Department was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters.
It followed 0.8% growth in the first quarter.It followed 0.8% growth in the first quarter.
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at 1.36pm BSTat 1.36pm BST
1.24pm BST1.24pm BST
13:2413:24
European markets remain subdued as we await Yellen’s speech.European markets remain subdued as we await Yellen’s speech.
The FTSE 100 is down just three points at 6,820.The FTSE 100 is down just three points at 6,820.
It’s a similar story across Europe, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.1 points to 341.9.It’s a similar story across Europe, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.1 points to 341.9.
12.34pm BST12.34pm BST
12:3412:34
Japan's deflationary spiral deepensJapan's deflationary spiral deepens
Earlier in Japan, figures showed consumer prices fell for the fifth month in a row in July, dealing a blow to prime minister Shinzo Abe and his bid to combat deflation.Earlier in Japan, figures showed consumer prices fell for the fifth month in a row in July, dealing a blow to prime minister Shinzo Abe and his bid to combat deflation.
Annual deflation deepened last month, with consumer prices falling by 0.5% in the year to July. It followed a 0.4% drop in June and was the biggest fall in more than three years as businesses delayed price hikes because of weak demand.Annual deflation deepened last month, with consumer prices falling by 0.5% in the year to July. It followed a 0.4% drop in June and was the biggest fall in more than three years as businesses delayed price hikes because of weak demand.
The data will intensify the pressure on Japan’s central bank to announce more stimulus, on top of the huge amount of money it has already pumped into the world’s third largest economy.The data will intensify the pressure on Japan’s central bank to announce more stimulus, on top of the huge amount of money it has already pumped into the world’s third largest economy.
Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics:Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics:
While economic activity is on the mend, the slump in import prices suggests that underlying inflation will continue to fall in coming months.While economic activity is on the mend, the slump in import prices suggests that underlying inflation will continue to fall in coming months.
The Bank of Japan will find it increasingly difficult to blame falling energy prices for the decline in overall consumer prices.The Bank of Japan will find it increasingly difficult to blame falling energy prices for the decline in overall consumer prices.
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at 12.34pm BSTat 12.34pm BST
12.13pm BST12.13pm BST
12:1312:13
Kansas City Fed president says inflation gains call for a near-term rate hike https://t.co/ruPn48gHVm pic.twitter.com/jqvWtH8W88Kansas City Fed president says inflation gains call for a near-term rate hike https://t.co/ruPn48gHVm pic.twitter.com/jqvWtH8W88
12.10pm BST12.10pm BST
12:1012:10
Ana Thaker, Market Economist at PhillipCapital UK, says investors will be looking to this afternoon’s US GDP number, as well as Yellen’s speech, for clues about the timing of the next rate rise.Ana Thaker, Market Economist at PhillipCapital UK, says investors will be looking to this afternoon’s US GDP number, as well as Yellen’s speech, for clues about the timing of the next rate rise.
Strong data combined with a hawkish Yellen could see the dollar rally as August comes to a close and markets look towards the [rate-setting] FOMC meeting in September.Strong data combined with a hawkish Yellen could see the dollar rally as August comes to a close and markets look towards the [rate-setting] FOMC meeting in September.
The Fed are relying on strong economic data to advocate a long anticipated rate hike so data over the last half of 2016 is crucial to both markets and the Fed in determining the direction of policy and markets. We are at a crucial point in the course of monetary policy for the Fed and data points are more pertinent than ever.The Fed are relying on strong economic data to advocate a long anticipated rate hike so data over the last half of 2016 is crucial to both markets and the Fed in determining the direction of policy and markets. We are at a crucial point in the course of monetary policy for the Fed and data points are more pertinent than ever.