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Without Britain, European Leaders Chart a Rocky New Course Without Britain, European Leaders Chart a Rocky New Course
(about 3 hours later)
BERLIN — Germany, France and Italy will now be the three most important nations left in the European Union after Britain’s stunning decision in June to leave the bloc. But all are substantially weakened by nagging domestic problems at a critical moment when Europe needs a new direction. BERLIN — Germany, France and Italy will be the three most important nations left in the European Union after Britain’s stunning decision in June to leave the bloc. Yet all are substantially weakened by nagging domestic problems at a critical moment when Europe needs a new direction.
So the summer weather did little to disguise the gloom that hung over a small summit meeting on Monday held by the leaders of the three nations off the coast of Naples, Italy, where they began charting a new course for the 27 countries that will be left in the bloc.So the summer weather did little to disguise the gloom that hung over a small summit meeting on Monday held by the leaders of the three nations off the coast of Naples, Italy, where they began charting a new course for the 27 countries that will be left in the bloc.
The three leaders used the moment to present a united front, emphasizing that the benefits of the bloc far outweighed the challenges it faced and making clear that Europe would persevere, even after the British vote to leave. The three leaders used the moment to present a united front, emphasizing that the benefits of the union far outweighed the challenges it faced and making clear that Europe would persevere, even after the British vote.
“We respect the choice of British citizens, but we want to write a new page for the future,” Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy said. The aftermath of the “Brexit” vote, as it is commonly known, called for “strong measures to boost growth and fight youth unemployment,” he said, as well as for investments and structural reforms.“We respect the choice of British citizens, but we want to write a new page for the future,” Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy said. The aftermath of the “Brexit” vote, as it is commonly known, called for “strong measures to boost growth and fight youth unemployment,” he said, as well as for investments and structural reforms.
But the way forward was far from clear. Though Mr. Renzi played the host, the role of guiding the bloc rests largely on the shoulders of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, the leader of Europe’s top economy. The way forward, however, was far from clear. Though Mr. Renzi played the host, the role of guiding the bloc rests largely on the shoulders of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, the leader of Europe’s strongest economy.
Ms. Merkel, like Mr. Renzi and President François Hollande of France, faces immediate challenges that make decisive action even more difficult than it has been for the last several years in the face of Europe’s economic, migration and border crises.Ms. Merkel, like Mr. Renzi and President François Hollande of France, faces immediate challenges that make decisive action even more difficult than it has been for the last several years in the face of Europe’s economic, migration and border crises.
For Ms. Merkel, those challenges include terrorist assaults at home last month that have helped fuel support for a far-right party in elections in her political home state and added to unusual political vulnerability over her refugee policy. That is in addition to a failed coup in Turkey and worsening conflict in Ukraine and Syria. For Ms. Merkel, those challenges include terrorist assaults at home last month that have helped fuel support for a far-right party in elections in her political home state and added to her vulnerability over her refugee policy. That is in addition to a failed coup in Turkey and worsening conflict in Ukraine and Syria.
Mr. Hollande is entering spring presidential elections with record-low approval ratings, a sluggish economy and his nation in a skittish mood after a series of terrorist attacks. He is facing potential challenges even from within his own party, in addition to those from conservatives and the far right under Marine Le Pen.Mr. Hollande is entering spring presidential elections with record-low approval ratings, a sluggish economy and his nation in a skittish mood after a series of terrorist attacks. He is facing potential challenges even from within his own party, in addition to those from conservatives and the far right under Marine Le Pen.
On Monday, the former president Nicolas Sarkozy formally announced that he would run to again be the standard-bearer for the center-right Republican party, though when he left office four years ago, he too was deeply unpopular. On Monday, former President Nicolas Sarkozy formally announced that he would run to again be the standard-bearer for the center-right Republicans party, though when he left office four years ago, he too was deeply unpopular.
Mr. Renzi, for his part, faces a November referendum on constitutional changes on which he has staked his political future. Defeat could mean early elections and a populist government in Italy, which recorded zero growth in the second quarter this year. Italy recorded zero growth in the second quarter this year. Mr. Renzi has staked his political future on a November referendum on constitutional changes. Defeat could mean early elections.
“Although in different ways, all three are weak leaders facing internal difficulties, with more or less imminent electoral tests, and therefore with narrow margins to maneuver,” wrote Adriana Cerretelli in an editorial on Sunday in the Italian economic daily Il Sole 24 Ore. She nonetheless called for “imagination, political courage and strategic vision to lift Europe out of the ford in which it has been mired for years.” “Although in different ways, all three are weak leaders facing internal difficulties, with more or less imminent electoral tests, and therefore with narrow margins to maneuver,” wrote Adriana Cerretelli in an editorial on Sunday in the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore. She nonetheless called for “imagination, political courage and strategic vision to lift Europe out of the ford in which it has been mired for years.”
Yet the three leaders themselves remain divided on critical issues facing the bloc, not least whether to allow flexibility on stiff budget requirements for the 19 eurozone countries that Ms. Merkel insists are necessary and that Mr. Renzi, especially, blames for stunting economic growth. Yet the three leaders themselves remain divided on critical issues, not least whether to allow flexibility on stiff budget requirements for the 19 eurozone countries that Ms. Merkel insists are necessary and that Mr. Renzi, especially, blames for stunting economic growth.
Allowing some leeway might bolster Mr. Hollande and Mr. Renzi politically, but it would be further proof of the bloc’s inability to stick to its own rules. Allowing some leeway might bolster Mr. Hollande and Mr. Renzi politically, but it would be further proof of the European Union’s inability to stick to its own rules.
Jan Techau, a German analyst who is the chairman of Carnegie Europe, a think tank in Brussels, cast doubt on whether any progress could be made on the issue. Jan Techau, a German analyst who is the chairman of Carnegie Europe in Brussels, cast doubt on whether any progress could be made on the issue.
“He wants a revised eurozone, moving away from austerity,” Mr. Techau said, referring to Mr. Renzi. “That is what he is trying to push very, very hard. But she doesn’t really want to go into a deepening of the eurozone just now. Everyone knows that the eurozone must be reformed. But the timing and direction are completely open, and completely disputed.” “He wants a revised eurozone, moving away from austerity,” Mr. Techau said, referring to Mr. Renzi. “Everyone knows that the eurozone must be reformed. But the timing and direction are completely open, and completely disputed.”
Ms. Merkel faces national elections in fall 2017, and it is unlikely that a euro overhaul will be achieved before then, Mr. Techau noted. “She doesn’t want to get rushed into anything before elections next year,” he said. Ms. Merkel faces national elections in the fall of 2017, and it is unlikely that a euro overhaul will be achieved before then, Mr. Techau noted. “She doesn’t want to get rushed into anything before elections next year.”
As a leading German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, put it, “Over the next month, Europe will embark on a quest for meaning.”As a leading German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, put it, “Over the next month, Europe will embark on a quest for meaning.”
The talks on Monday are supposed to culminate in mid-September in a meeting of the 27 nations that will remain in the bloc without Britain. The three top leaders have promised new efforts on internal and external security; fresh stimulus for growth and jobs; and special programs for Europe’s youth, who are bearing the brunt of unemployment almost everywhere but Germany. The talks on Monday are supposed to culminate in mid-September in a meeting of the 27 nations that will remain in the bloc. The three top leaders have promised new efforts on internal and external security; fresh stimulus for growth and jobs; and special programs for Europe’s youth, who are bearing the brunt of unemployment almost everywhere but Germany.
There is no clear indication of how or why these efforts would succeed where others have failed. Yet the pressure is immense; if Europe cannot rally to its many challenges, anti-European Union feelings could mount and lead to even more referendums on leaving the bloc. There is no clear indication of how or why these efforts would succeed where others have failed. Yet the pressure is immense; if Europe cannot rally to its many challenges, anti-European Union feelings could lead to even more referendums.
The Netherlands, which already voted against a Europe-wide agreement on Ukraine in a referendum this summer, “are a very nervous European partner at the moment,” Mr. Techau said.The Netherlands, which already voted against a Europe-wide agreement on Ukraine in a referendum this summer, “are a very nervous European partner at the moment,” Mr. Techau said.
Other factors gnawing at Europe’s fragile unity include the rerun presidential elections scheduled for Oct. 2 in Austria, where a far-right politician might win in the first such triumph in Europe since 1945. On the same day, Hungary will vote in a referendum on sheltering refugees, whose mass arrival last year shook Europe’s stability and led former Communist states to reject quotas for accepting the newcomers. Other factors gnawing at Europe’s fragile unity include the rerun presidential election scheduled for Oct. 2 in Austria, where a far-right politician could win in the first such triumph in Europe since 1945.
After the meeting on Monday in Italy, Ms. Merkel will spend her week crisscrossing central and Eastern Europe and then hosting Western European conservative leaders at a castle outside Berlin to try to forge new unity. Mr. Hollande and Mr. Renzi are likely to reach out to politicians in Portugal, Spain and Greece to unite the Continent’s southern flank. Ms. Merkel will spend the rest of the week crisscrossing central and Eastern Europe and then hosting Western European conservative leaders at a castle outside Berlin to try to forge new unity. Mr. Hollande and Mr. Renzi are likely to reach out to politicians in Portugal, Spain and Greece to unite the Continent’s southern flank.
One important task is working out a mandate for Michel Barnier, a veteran French politician, to negotiate for the bloc with Britain whenever the British decide those talks should begin. One important task is working out a mandate for Michel Barnier, a veteran politician from France, to negotiate with the British on behalf of the European Union.
Paradoxically, even if Europe’s leaders succeed in agreeing a mandate for Mr. Barnier, “they won’t publicize it because they don’t want to undermine their own negotiation position,” Mr. Techau said. No one knows when negotiations on Britain’s departure will begin. Prime Minister Theresa May has hinted that London might not activate the relevant clause — known as Article 50 — until late this year, or even early in 2017. The complex separation will then have to be negotiated within two years.
No one knows when negotiations on Britain’s departure will begin. Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain has hinted that London might not activate the relevant clause — known as Article 50 — until late this year, or even early in 2017. The complex divorce will then have to be negotiated within two years. In Ms. Merkel’s view, that ball is very much in Britain’s court. In contrast to the many meetings planned with European leaders this week, the only place she will run into a leading Briton is at a celebration in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, where Britain will be represented by Prince William, who, like other members of the royal family, has no say in politics.
In Ms. Merkel’s view, the ball is very much in Britain’s court. In contrast to the many meetings planned with European leaders this week, the only place she will run into a leading Briton is at a celebration in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, where Britain will be represented by Prince William of Britain’s royal family, which has no power in political affairs. “We are not conducting any prenegotiations with the British, Ms. Merkel’s spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said on Monday. “It is up to them to tell us” when the clock starts ticking on Britain’s membership, he said, which for now remains, “with all the advantages — and all the obligations.”
“Great Britain must get clear what kind of relations it wants to have with the European Union in the future,” Ms. Merkel’s spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said on Monday. “We are not conducting any prenegotiations with the British. It is up to them to tell us” when the clock starts ticking on Britain’s membership, which for now remains, “with all the advantages — and all the obligations,” he said.