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| Brexit: Expert who predicted EU referendum result reveals what he thinks will happen next | Brexit: Expert who predicted EU referendum result reveals what he thinks will happen next |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| One of the first experts to correctly predict the outcome of the EU referendum has spoken out against how he was universally derided, and issued a stark warning about the possible implications for Europe. | |
| Writing years before the vote, economist John Van Reenen argued Brexit was a real possibility since David Cameron committed to a ballot on the issue in 2013. | Writing years before the vote, economist John Van Reenen argued Brexit was a real possibility since David Cameron committed to a ballot on the issue in 2013. |
| A blog post by Mr Van Reenen authored months before the referendum alongside three of his colleagues from the LSE, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, lays out the economic costs of Britain leaving the European Union. | A blog post by Mr Van Reenen authored months before the referendum alongside three of his colleagues from the LSE, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson, lays out the economic costs of Britain leaving the European Union. |
| It claims if Britain manages to secure a deal where it keeps access to the single market, income per person will still fall by 1.3 per cent. | It claims if Britain manages to secure a deal where it keeps access to the single market, income per person will still fall by 1.3 per cent. |
| If the UK is unwilling to accept the free movement of labour, it is likely trade will fall by more, leading to a 2.6 per cent decrease in income per person, according to the research conducted by the LSE. | If the UK is unwilling to accept the free movement of labour, it is likely trade will fall by more, leading to a 2.6 per cent decrease in income per person, according to the research conducted by the LSE. |
| This translates to a fall of between £850 and £1,700 per UK household. | This translates to a fall of between £850 and £1,700 per UK household. |
| Mr Van Reenen, who is a professor of economics at LSE and director of the university's Centre for Economic Performance, has now seen his predictions borne out. | Mr Van Reenen, who is a professor of economics at LSE and director of the university's Centre for Economic Performance, has now seen his predictions borne out. |
| In a new piece following the referendum result, Mr Van Reenen blamed the stigmatisation of foreigners, the eurosceptic and anti-immigration stance of large sections of the British press and also “the worst [politicians] in living memory” for the result. | In a new piece following the referendum result, Mr Van Reenen blamed the stigmatisation of foreigners, the eurosceptic and anti-immigration stance of large sections of the British press and also “the worst [politicians] in living memory” for the result. |
| He argued the vote was “won on a drumbeat of anti-foreigner sentiment” and is “the same tune that was played in the 1930s” and has "drowned a once great nation.” | He argued the vote was “won on a drumbeat of anti-foreigner sentiment” and is “the same tune that was played in the 1930s” and has "drowned a once great nation.” |
| And in a warning for the future, Mr Van Reenen suggested that other European countries will follow Britain’s example and be “swept along in this poisonous flood”. | And in a warning for the future, Mr Van Reenen suggested that other European countries will follow Britain’s example and be “swept along in this poisonous flood”. |
| The only question worth asking, according to Mr Van Reenen, is which countries will accept the "tsunami of bile" and take an anti-immigration, anti-Europe stance in the coming years. | The only question worth asking, according to Mr Van Reenen, is which countries will accept the "tsunami of bile" and take an anti-immigration, anti-Europe stance in the coming years. |