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| The only way to defeat Islamic State is to give young Arabs hope | The only way to defeat Islamic State is to give young Arabs hope |
| (30 days later) | |
| In the worldwide struggle against Islamic State and other violent religious extremists, an important factor is often overlooked: the psychological impact of both victory and defeat. | In the worldwide struggle against Islamic State and other violent religious extremists, an important factor is often overlooked: the psychological impact of both victory and defeat. |
| Since Muslims ruled Andalusia, followers of Islam have witnessed one historical defeat after another, the last being the demise of the 600-year Ottoman empire. In more modern history, Arabs have witnessed political defeats that left Palestine under Israeli military control, Syria and Egypt ceding territory in the six-day war and Iraq defeated twice by an US-led coalition that included Arab allies. | Since Muslims ruled Andalusia, followers of Islam have witnessed one historical defeat after another, the last being the demise of the 600-year Ottoman empire. In more modern history, Arabs have witnessed political defeats that left Palestine under Israeli military control, Syria and Egypt ceding territory in the six-day war and Iraq defeated twice by an US-led coalition that included Arab allies. |
| The Isis ideology encourages young Muslims and Arabs coming of age to find in the promised “caliphate” the hope of victory and the false reassurance of return to a lost golden age. | The Isis ideology encourages young Muslims and Arabs coming of age to find in the promised “caliphate” the hope of victory and the false reassurance of return to a lost golden age. |
| The defeat of Isis is therefore important on two levels. Operationally, it would end the group’s physical control of territory and the possibility of training and planning attacks. On a psychological level, it would represent the defeat of a warped ideology. | The defeat of Isis is therefore important on two levels. Operationally, it would end the group’s physical control of territory and the possibility of training and planning attacks. On a psychological level, it would represent the defeat of a warped ideology. |
| But defeating Isis physically and ideologically should not be left to military strategists or western troops. It makes a big difference who is credited with their defeat, and for such a defeat to be sustainable it must be matched with a credible alternative for the restless young people who yearn to be part of a winning team. If the west is going to play a part in shaping the future after the defeat of the “caliphate”, it is vital that they don’t claim credit for such a defeat, even if they have played a key role. | But defeating Isis physically and ideologically should not be left to military strategists or western troops. It makes a big difference who is credited with their defeat, and for such a defeat to be sustainable it must be matched with a credible alternative for the restless young people who yearn to be part of a winning team. If the west is going to play a part in shaping the future after the defeat of the “caliphate”, it is vital that they don’t claim credit for such a defeat, even if they have played a key role. |
| But more important still is who will fill the ideological vacuum once Isis is no longer in control of the territory it holds. When young people demonstrated in their thousands on the streets of Tunis and Cairo in 2010-2011, many of them believed the moment for Arab democracy had arrived. Unfortunately the true agents of change lacked the ability and the organisation to fill the vacuum created by the departure of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and the jailing of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. | But more important still is who will fill the ideological vacuum once Isis is no longer in control of the territory it holds. When young people demonstrated in their thousands on the streets of Tunis and Cairo in 2010-2011, many of them believed the moment for Arab democracy had arrived. Unfortunately the true agents of change lacked the ability and the organisation to fill the vacuum created by the departure of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and the jailing of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. |
| Ironically, the strength and short-term victories of Isis and similar groups has led to a new radical secular movement taking shape in the Middle East and north Africa. This conversation is mostly happening on social media, and like the Arab spring demonstrators, those hopeful of achieving secular democracy have little chance of genuinely filling the vacuum that is sure to develop once the Isis hardcore is defeated. | Ironically, the strength and short-term victories of Isis and similar groups has led to a new radical secular movement taking shape in the Middle East and north Africa. This conversation is mostly happening on social media, and like the Arab spring demonstrators, those hopeful of achieving secular democracy have little chance of genuinely filling the vacuum that is sure to develop once the Isis hardcore is defeated. |
| What is needed now is a new partnership between moderate powers in the Arab world, civil society activists and secularists . The number one condition for such a partnership is genuine respect for others and an end to rivalry. A successful partnership must respect and build on the only alternatives to violent extremism: power-sharing, inclusivity and pluralism. | What is needed now is a new partnership between moderate powers in the Arab world, civil society activists and secularists . The number one condition for such a partnership is genuine respect for others and an end to rivalry. A successful partnership must respect and build on the only alternatives to violent extremism: power-sharing, inclusivity and pluralism. |
| The raison d’être of this new partnership must be to promote democratic principles and to encourage the separation of church and state while respecting moderate religious conservatives who believe in gradual rather than revolutionary change. But this will not be enough. Feeding the heart without feeding the body will only delay another round of trouble. A Marshall plan of sorts must be implemented that can help address the huge unemployment problem that faces most Arab and Muslim young people today. | The raison d’être of this new partnership must be to promote democratic principles and to encourage the separation of church and state while respecting moderate religious conservatives who believe in gradual rather than revolutionary change. But this will not be enough. Feeding the heart without feeding the body will only delay another round of trouble. A Marshall plan of sorts must be implemented that can help address the huge unemployment problem that faces most Arab and Muslim young people today. |
| All of this may sound idealistic and certainly is not new to the west, which has regularly rejected such ideas in favour of maintaining alliances with autocratic regimes to promote its short-term interests. | All of this may sound idealistic and certainly is not new to the west, which has regularly rejected such ideas in favour of maintaining alliances with autocratic regimes to promote its short-term interests. |
| The biggest danger in the coming months and years is that the west will selfishly refocus its attention internally. The most recent violent attacks in the US, France and Germany show clearly that isolationism will do little to address borderless issues. | The biggest danger in the coming months and years is that the west will selfishly refocus its attention internally. The most recent violent attacks in the US, France and Germany show clearly that isolationism will do little to address borderless issues. |
| While Isis needs to be defeated, care must be given to who earns the credit. The best-case scenario – although probably an idealistic one – should be an inclusive power-sharing governance structure that can help build a much more progressive and representative future for the Middle East, preventing any resurgence of this ugly scourge. | While Isis needs to be defeated, care must be given to who earns the credit. The best-case scenario – although probably an idealistic one – should be an inclusive power-sharing governance structure that can help build a much more progressive and representative future for the Middle East, preventing any resurgence of this ugly scourge. |