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| US jobs data gives positive shock | US jobs data gives positive shock |
| (20 minutes later) | |
| US job figures have surprised Wall Street, falling less than expected and shifting the balance of opinion towards analysts not predicting a recession. | |
| The US economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, according to non-farm payrolls figures from the Labor Department. | The US economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, according to non-farm payrolls figures from the Labor Department. |
| Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but reduced its stress on the risks to the economy. | |
| As a result of the upbeat news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index opened more than 100 points higher. | |
| Big improvement | Big improvement |
| US Treasury bond prices fell sharply when the figures were released, as they suggest the economy may not be faring as badly as had been thought and investors decided that interest rate cuts may now be put on hold. | US Treasury bond prices fell sharply when the figures were released, as they suggest the economy may not be faring as badly as had been thought and investors decided that interest rate cuts may now be put on hold. |
| It looks as if employers are being cautious about cutting employment too severely Pierre Ellis, Decision Economics | It looks as if employers are being cautious about cutting employment too severely Pierre Ellis, Decision Economics |
| "Job losses are way below the recession norm for this point of business cycle, if this is recession," said Robert Brusca at FAO Economics. | "Job losses are way below the recession norm for this point of business cycle, if this is recession," said Robert Brusca at FAO Economics. |
| "Many things do not really add up for the recession forecasters." | "Many things do not really add up for the recession forecasters." |
| The payrolls figure was a big improvement from the 81,000 jobs lost in March and comes just as consumers are receiving their tax rebate cheques as part of the government's stimulus package. | The payrolls figure was a big improvement from the 81,000 jobs lost in March and comes just as consumers are receiving their tax rebate cheques as part of the government's stimulus package. |
| At the same time, the jobless rate fell to 5% from 5.1% in March, when it had been expected to increase to 5.2%. | |
| "It's a lot better than expected, both in terms of the non-farm payroll number and the unemployment rate, so it looks like the economy is in better shape than we thought," said Owen Fitzpatrick of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. | "It's a lot better than expected, both in terms of the non-farm payroll number and the unemployment rate, so it looks like the economy is in better shape than we thought," said Owen Fitzpatrick of Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. |
| "It's a positive, but I don't think it'll be a blowout positive." | "It's a positive, but I don't think it'll be a blowout positive." |
| "This will alleviate some of the concerns that we're in for a steep reduction in employment and a prolonged, drawn-out recession." | "This will alleviate some of the concerns that we're in for a steep reduction in employment and a prolonged, drawn-out recession." |
| Cautious employers | Cautious employers |
| One of the big areas of job growth in April was professional and business services, while there was a small fall in the average number of hours worked per week to 33.7. | One of the big areas of job growth in April was professional and business services, while there was a small fall in the average number of hours worked per week to 33.7. |
| "It looks as if employers are being cautious about cutting employment too severely," said Pierre Ellis at Decision Economics in New York. | "It looks as if employers are being cautious about cutting employment too severely," said Pierre Ellis at Decision Economics in New York. |
| The construction sector is under significant pressure in the US | |
| "This may well show a pattern of increased use of outside service providers as the outlook becomes more uncertain," he added. | "This may well show a pattern of increased use of outside service providers as the outlook becomes more uncertain," he added. |
| While the payroll figure was better than had been expected, it was still the fourth consecutive month of falls as the economy continued to slow. | |
| The drop meant it was the worst run of negative payrolls figures since the five month run from February to June 2003. | |
| "This is a blip against a deteriorating trend, though don't expect the bulls on Wall Street to see it that way," said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. | "This is a blip against a deteriorating trend, though don't expect the bulls on Wall Street to see it that way," said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. |
| "All the payroll improvement was in the service-providing sector," he said, pointing to a 61,000 decline in jobs in construction, and a 46,000 slide in manufacturing jobs. | "All the payroll improvement was in the service-providing sector," he said, pointing to a 61,000 decline in jobs in construction, and a 46,000 slide in manufacturing jobs. |
| "Expect much weaker headlines in May," he warned. | "Expect much weaker headlines in May," he warned. |
| Key sectors | Key sectors |
| Other analysts also voiced concerns about the strength of employment in some industries, such as retailing, which lost 27,000 jobs. | Other analysts also voiced concerns about the strength of employment in some industries, such as retailing, which lost 27,000 jobs. |
| "If you isolate the cyclical industries, employment is dropping quite quickly," said Avery Shenfeld at CIBC World Markets. | "If you isolate the cyclical industries, employment is dropping quite quickly," said Avery Shenfeld at CIBC World Markets. |
| "It's still not a sign the labour market is healthy." | "It's still not a sign the labour market is healthy." |