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| Theresa May is bad, but the other Tory candidates are worse | Theresa May is bad, but the other Tory candidates are worse |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Imagine Britain’s membership of the European Union as a cat. The cat is sealed in a box with an unstable radioactive element, “Article 50”. At some point the toxicity of A50 will kill the cat – an outcome that is confirmed on opening the box. But as long as the box is sealed, moggy is simultaneously dead and alive. This state is known as Schrödinger’s EU membership, after the Austrian physicist who described something similar in 1935 to elucidate the mysteries of quantum mechanics. | Imagine Britain’s membership of the European Union as a cat. The cat is sealed in a box with an unstable radioactive element, “Article 50”. At some point the toxicity of A50 will kill the cat – an outcome that is confirmed on opening the box. But as long as the box is sealed, moggy is simultaneously dead and alive. This state is known as Schrödinger’s EU membership, after the Austrian physicist who described something similar in 1935 to elucidate the mysteries of quantum mechanics. |
| If that discipline sounds intimidating – a synonym for brain-melting complexity – the metaphor works all the better for the big task facing our next prime minister: negotiating a post-referendum settlement with the EU. The parameters are superficially simple: trade on terms that maintain the advantages of the single market, combined with a reassertion of national border controls to meet the demand of leave voters for reduced migration. | If that discipline sounds intimidating – a synonym for brain-melting complexity – the metaphor works all the better for the big task facing our next prime minister: negotiating a post-referendum settlement with the EU. The parameters are superficially simple: trade on terms that maintain the advantages of the single market, combined with a reassertion of national border controls to meet the demand of leave voters for reduced migration. |
| The snag is that free labour movement and the single market are not separate. Less of one means less of the other. To maximise satisfaction for Brexit voters who were motivated by desire to cut immigration – not all of them, but a large number – is to sabotage the economy. To refuse those people measurable satisfaction is an affront to democracy. | The snag is that free labour movement and the single market are not separate. Less of one means less of the other. To maximise satisfaction for Brexit voters who were motivated by desire to cut immigration – not all of them, but a large number – is to sabotage the economy. To refuse those people measurable satisfaction is an affront to democracy. |
| Gove has a liberal social conscience, but it was over-zealously applied to schools reform and led to chaos | Gove has a liberal social conscience, but it was over-zealously applied to schools reform and led to chaos |
| Despite disingenuous denials by liberal leavers, their campaign accepted the fundamental terms of the debate as a choice between border control at any price, and integration with our closest neighbours and trading partners. A majority plumped for the former. | Despite disingenuous denials by liberal leavers, their campaign accepted the fundamental terms of the debate as a choice between border control at any price, and integration with our closest neighbours and trading partners. A majority plumped for the former. |
| Remainers can dislike that choice. We can hate the way it was sold – the sinister “breaking point” insinuations of indigenous dilution by foreign hordes. But pro-Europeans won’t get far in the coming years if they can’t get past the first two stages of grief: denial and anger. (Some fury is justified but, in this respect I cite Philip Roth: “Anger is to make you effective. That’s its survival function. That’s why it’s given to you. If it makes you ineffective, drop it like a hot potato.”) | |
| If a Brexit deal honours the referendum outcome it cannot revert to something called “membership” of the EU; but if it reflects responsible handling of the national interest, it will come as close as possible. Welcome to quantum diplomacy, a new experimental field of political science that will require formidable skill and a large dose of that quality notoriously derided by Michael Gove – expertise. | If a Brexit deal honours the referendum outcome it cannot revert to something called “membership” of the EU; but if it reflects responsible handling of the national interest, it will come as close as possible. Welcome to quantum diplomacy, a new experimental field of political science that will require formidable skill and a large dose of that quality notoriously derided by Michael Gove – expertise. |
| Here we meet a paradox: the person to carry forward the instruction delivered by a vast democratic exercise will be chosen by around 150,000 Conservative party members from a shortlist drafted by 330 Tory MPs. There is a theoretical argument for resolving this perversity with a general election: to rehabilitate the authority of parliament it must be realigned with the post-referendum landscape. The new prime minister needs a national mandate. | Here we meet a paradox: the person to carry forward the instruction delivered by a vast democratic exercise will be chosen by around 150,000 Conservative party members from a shortlist drafted by 330 Tory MPs. There is a theoretical argument for resolving this perversity with a general election: to rehabilitate the authority of parliament it must be realigned with the post-referendum landscape. The new prime minister needs a national mandate. |
| This is appealing on a constitutional level and appalling on a practical one. Britain has been in a state of febrile campaigning since the Scottish referendum in autumn 2014, with only moments of respite. This period has not been marked by judicious evaluation of realistic policy options, nor by methodical measurement of room for compromise. It feels as if politics is in the late stages of an epic, two-year cocaine bender – wired on false promises and hysterical accusations – and what it needs to do is sit down with a cup of tea and a biscuit. | This is appealing on a constitutional level and appalling on a practical one. Britain has been in a state of febrile campaigning since the Scottish referendum in autumn 2014, with only moments of respite. This period has not been marked by judicious evaluation of realistic policy options, nor by methodical measurement of room for compromise. It feels as if politics is in the late stages of an epic, two-year cocaine bender – wired on false promises and hysterical accusations – and what it needs to do is sit down with a cup of tea and a biscuit. |
| But if there is not to be an election, the responsibility on the shoulders of the Conservative party is huge. They are choosing a prime minister for the whole country, including the 48% who voted remain. This person must navigate the most turbulent sea. | But if there is not to be an election, the responsibility on the shoulders of the Conservative party is huge. They are choosing a prime minister for the whole country, including the 48% who voted remain. This person must navigate the most turbulent sea. |
| I’m not a Tory, so I don’t expect party members to heed my opinion, but for what it’s worth I urge them to begin by doing the opposite of what many Labour members did last summer. They should judge the candidates not on the basis of doctrinal purity, nor in retaliation for perceived betrayals of some platonic ideal of their party’s past, but on capability. | I’m not a Tory, so I don’t expect party members to heed my opinion, but for what it’s worth I urge them to begin by doing the opposite of what many Labour members did last summer. They should judge the candidates not on the basis of doctrinal purity, nor in retaliation for perceived betrayals of some platonic ideal of their party’s past, but on capability. |
| They must treat this as a recruitment exercise for a tremendously difficult job in which the cost of failure is unfathomable. Before them lies a pile of CVs. Rejecting Liam Fox in last night’s first-round ballot was an act of mercy by MPs. His cabinet career failed in disgrace. He allowed a lobbyist chum to masquerade as an official. He has contributed only unrepentant vanity and stale ideological mediocrity since. | They must treat this as a recruitment exercise for a tremendously difficult job in which the cost of failure is unfathomable. Before them lies a pile of CVs. Rejecting Liam Fox in last night’s first-round ballot was an act of mercy by MPs. His cabinet career failed in disgrace. He allowed a lobbyist chum to masquerade as an official. He has contributed only unrepentant vanity and stale ideological mediocrity since. |
| It was unsurprising that Stephen Crabb dropped out next. Inexperience and conspicuous pro-Europeanism were against him. Andrea Leadsom also lacks top-flight credentials and should be binned as a divisive candidate liked by anti-Brussels dogmatists. They appear not to mind if her late conversion to Brexit stemmed from tactical duplicity, as Ken Clarke speculated with accidental candour on Sky News yesterday; hardly a recommendation. Her endorsement by Arron Banks, Ukip financier and Trumpian despiser of civilised debate, invites disqualification. | It was unsurprising that Stephen Crabb dropped out next. Inexperience and conspicuous pro-Europeanism were against him. Andrea Leadsom also lacks top-flight credentials and should be binned as a divisive candidate liked by anti-Brussels dogmatists. They appear not to mind if her late conversion to Brexit stemmed from tactical duplicity, as Ken Clarke speculated with accidental candour on Sky News yesterday; hardly a recommendation. Her endorsement by Arron Banks, Ukip financier and Trumpian despiser of civilised debate, invites disqualification. |
| Related: Conservative MPs start voting in leadership contest | Related: Conservative MPs start voting in leadership contest |
| That leaves Gove and Theresa May. The former is clever, or articulately cunning in a way that resembles intelligence. He has imagination and a liberal social conscience. But their overzealous application to schools reform led to chaos, alienating even people who shared his motives. On foreign affairs, Gove is a fanatic. “Wild,” says Clarke. “He’d go to war with at least three countries.” | That leaves Gove and Theresa May. The former is clever, or articulately cunning in a way that resembles intelligence. He has imagination and a liberal social conscience. But their overzealous application to schools reform led to chaos, alienating even people who shared his motives. On foreign affairs, Gove is a fanatic. “Wild,” says Clarke. “He’d go to war with at least three countries.” |
| The home secretary – solid, redoubtable – has the safer-looking hands. It may seem awkward for a remainer to enact a leave mandate, but no one can fairly accuse May of Europhiliac, open-door liberalism. | The home secretary – solid, redoubtable – has the safer-looking hands. It may seem awkward for a remainer to enact a leave mandate, but no one can fairly accuse May of Europhiliac, open-door liberalism. |
| A grim selection. I rejoice at the thought of none of them. But I don’t get to choose. There is time yet for someone to surprise and impress. And since betrayal and misstep are tipping careers lifeless on to the stage at a rate to rival the final scene of Hamlet, it is possible the field will have shrunk again by the time you read this. | A grim selection. I rejoice at the thought of none of them. But I don’t get to choose. There is time yet for someone to surprise and impress. And since betrayal and misstep are tipping careers lifeless on to the stage at a rate to rival the final scene of Hamlet, it is possible the field will have shrunk again by the time you read this. |
| As things stand, the reasonable course for Tories would be to choose May as the pragmatic, compromise candidate of administrative sobriety. But if the recent trajectory of politics is sustained, reason will not be the decisive factor. | As things stand, the reasonable course for Tories would be to choose May as the pragmatic, compromise candidate of administrative sobriety. But if the recent trajectory of politics is sustained, reason will not be the decisive factor. |