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| After ‘Brexit,’ Some in E.U. Push Military Unity, but Voters Focus on Threats Within | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| WASHINGTON — Britain’s vote to leave the European Union comes as the 28-nation bloc is grappling with more than its usual economic issues. The union is also in the midst of deep ideological divisions over the major diplomatic and security issues of the day. | WASHINGTON — Britain’s vote to leave the European Union comes as the 28-nation bloc is grappling with more than its usual economic issues. The union is also in the midst of deep ideological divisions over the major diplomatic and security issues of the day. |
| The body has traditionally been an afterthought in such matters, with individual states or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a strictly military alliance, taking the lead. But that is slowly changing. Britain’s departure, analysts say, could shift internal debate on not just individual issues but the very nature of the union’s role in diplomacy and security. | The body has traditionally been an afterthought in such matters, with individual states or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a strictly military alliance, taking the lead. But that is slowly changing. Britain’s departure, analysts say, could shift internal debate on not just individual issues but the very nature of the union’s role in diplomacy and security. |
| As France and Germany fill the leadership void, they will have an opportunity to pursue a shared goal that Britain has blocked: expanding the European Union’s integration to include military policy. | As France and Germany fill the leadership void, they will have an opportunity to pursue a shared goal that Britain has blocked: expanding the European Union’s integration to include military policy. |
| This ambition, which some union officials are already pushing forward, would expand the bloc’s ability to act as a unified diplomatic body, and allow it to put muscle behind its increasingly prominent role in the world. It would give Europe a greater ability to confront security challenges, particularly the threat that many Eastern European members perceive from Russia. | This ambition, which some union officials are already pushing forward, would expand the bloc’s ability to act as a unified diplomatic body, and allow it to put muscle behind its increasingly prominent role in the world. It would give Europe a greater ability to confront security challenges, particularly the threat that many Eastern European members perceive from Russia. |
| But this would do little to address Europe’s other major security challenge, terrorism, underscoring the body’s tendency to emphasize ambitious long-term projects over more immediate and politically charged crises. | |
| A new European project: military unity | A new European project: military unity |
| The European Union already has a military affairs office, known as the European Defense Agency, but it is weak and decentralized, lacking even a permanent headquarters. Britain has long opposed strengthening this arm of the union, preferring that all military coordination go through NATO, where its voice is amplified by its close alliance with the United States. | The European Union already has a military affairs office, known as the European Defense Agency, but it is weak and decentralized, lacking even a permanent headquarters. Britain has long opposed strengthening this arm of the union, preferring that all military coordination go through NATO, where its voice is amplified by its close alliance with the United States. |
| Days after Britain’s referendum, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, presented a long-awaited memo articulating the body’s “global strategy.” At its center is a call, long sought by French and German officials, for beginning to integrate Europe’s military policies. | Days after Britain’s referendum, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, presented a long-awaited memo articulating the body’s “global strategy.” At its center is a call, long sought by French and German officials, for beginning to integrate Europe’s military policies. |
| The mere existence of the memo — the first of its kind since 2003 — points to long-building momentum within Europe for military integration. Proponents say this would not just bolster defense but also remake the union as a more active force in the world that could project hard power and lead peacekeeping operations. | The mere existence of the memo — the first of its kind since 2003 — points to long-building momentum within Europe for military integration. Proponents say this would not just bolster defense but also remake the union as a more active force in the world that could project hard power and lead peacekeeping operations. |
| The memo did not call for unifying Europe’s armies, despite rumors to the contrary in the British news media. But it did say that the European Union should develop the institutions to act as a coordinated bloc in military matters. | The memo did not call for unifying Europe’s armies, despite rumors to the contrary in the British news media. But it did say that the European Union should develop the institutions to act as a coordinated bloc in military matters. |
| For France, military integration is seen as a way back to the center of the international stage, in part by buttressing the peacekeeping operations that French leaders often undertake. | For France, military integration is seen as a way back to the center of the international stage, in part by buttressing the peacekeeping operations that French leaders often undertake. |
| Britain’s departure from the European Union could “be an opportunity for further defense and security integration, as the French are already advocating,” said Benjamin Haddad, a French analyst at the Washington-based Hudson Institute. | Britain’s departure from the European Union could “be an opportunity for further defense and security integration, as the French are already advocating,” said Benjamin Haddad, a French analyst at the Washington-based Hudson Institute. |
| Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker who serves on Parliament’s committee on foreign affairs, argued in April that Europe should begin taking steps toward creating a “common European army” — something that would make it far harder for the nations to turn against one another. | Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker who serves on Parliament’s committee on foreign affairs, argued in April that Europe should begin taking steps toward creating a “common European army” — something that would make it far harder for the nations to turn against one another. |
| The European Union as a global power? | The European Union as a global power? |
| While a post-“Brexit” European Union would represent a smaller share of the world’s military power — Britain has the largest military budget in Europe — it could come to wield that power in ways that would be more consequential. Ms. Mogherini is calling for the European Union to consolidate authority on military procurement and deployments abroad, according to The Financial Times. | While a post-“Brexit” European Union would represent a smaller share of the world’s military power — Britain has the largest military budget in Europe — it could come to wield that power in ways that would be more consequential. Ms. Mogherini is calling for the European Union to consolidate authority on military procurement and deployments abroad, according to The Financial Times. |
| The union runs several peacekeeping operations, mostly in Africa, as well as an antipiracy mission off of the coast of Somalia. Such missions could expand under a more militarily unified bloc. | The union runs several peacekeeping operations, mostly in Africa, as well as an antipiracy mission off of the coast of Somalia. Such missions could expand under a more militarily unified bloc. |
| Ms. Mogherini emphasized that military unity would be not just to defend Europe from foreign militaries — a role that NATO currently plays — but also to strengthen the European Union’s diplomatic role in the world. | Ms. Mogherini emphasized that military unity would be not just to defend Europe from foreign militaries — a role that NATO currently plays — but also to strengthen the European Union’s diplomatic role in the world. |
| European leaders, tired of American dominance, have already used the bloc to reassert their relevance on the global stage — for example, by opening Iran nuclear talks in 2004 and by setting policies related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as new rules on labeling for products made in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. | European leaders, tired of American dominance, have already used the bloc to reassert their relevance on the global stage — for example, by opening Iran nuclear talks in 2004 and by setting policies related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as new rules on labeling for products made in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. |
| But these initiatives have been limited to so-called soft power: diplomatic brokering and trade rules. European military coordination would provide hard power as well, in an era when the two often go hand in hand. Consider, for example, American-led efforts at containing Chinese moves in the South China Sea or deterring North Korean threats. | But these initiatives have been limited to so-called soft power: diplomatic brokering and trade rules. European military coordination would provide hard power as well, in an era when the two often go hand in hand. Consider, for example, American-led efforts at containing Chinese moves in the South China Sea or deterring North Korean threats. |
| The European Union is a bystander in such issues. Integrating military policy could help it become a real player. | The European Union is a bystander in such issues. Integrating military policy could help it become a real player. |
| The Russia question | The Russia question |
| Europe’s greatest diplomatic and external security challenge — and the most immediate test of French and German ambitions to remake it as a strong global player — is Russia. | Europe’s greatest diplomatic and external security challenge — and the most immediate test of French and German ambitions to remake it as a strong global player — is Russia. |
| European Union sanctions against Russia, imposed after its March 2014 annexation of Crimea, have made it a major center of gravity for Western policy. Expanding that role could be particularly important for bloc members that are not part of NATO, namely Finland and Sweden, which are concerned over perceived Russian threats. | |
| Western European leaders tend to be most concerned with migration and terrorism, and some question whether continuing sanctions against Russia are worth the economic cost and political headache. Britain, by aligning with Eastern European leaders who see Russia as a dire threat, has helped maintain the European Union’s hard line against Moscow. | Western European leaders tend to be most concerned with migration and terrorism, and some question whether continuing sanctions against Russia are worth the economic cost and political headache. Britain, by aligning with Eastern European leaders who see Russia as a dire threat, has helped maintain the European Union’s hard line against Moscow. |
| “The loss of the British voice in the E.U. will be concerning to those on Russia’s doorstep,” wrote Shashank Joshi, a British security analyst at the Royal United Services Institute. The country’s departure, he added, could “nudge E.U. policy towards Moscow.” | “The loss of the British voice in the E.U. will be concerning to those on Russia’s doorstep,” wrote Shashank Joshi, a British security analyst at the Royal United Services Institute. The country’s departure, he added, could “nudge E.U. policy towards Moscow.” |
| If Europe cannot maintain a unified front on Russia today, then its hopes of building up global military and diplomatic power tomorrow are hardly assured. | If Europe cannot maintain a unified front on Russia today, then its hopes of building up global military and diplomatic power tomorrow are hardly assured. |
| Britain’s departure would put more pressure on Germany to manage European disagreements over Russia, said Stefan Meister of the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations. It is a sensitive subject within Germany, touching on the country’s history of militarism as well as its hesitation about assuming a strong leadership role in Europe. | Britain’s departure would put more pressure on Germany to manage European disagreements over Russia, said Stefan Meister of the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations. It is a sensitive subject within Germany, touching on the country’s history of militarism as well as its hesitation about assuming a strong leadership role in Europe. |
| German’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said in June that Europe should be more willing to phase out sanctions on Russia: If he or others pressure Chancellor Angela Merkel to soften her approach to Russia, then a Britain-less European Union will be likely to follow. | German’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said in June that Europe should be more willing to phase out sanctions on Russia: If he or others pressure Chancellor Angela Merkel to soften her approach to Russia, then a Britain-less European Union will be likely to follow. |
| The unresolved issue: terrorism | The unresolved issue: terrorism |
| Even if the European Union holds a united front on Russia and goes on to build a military arm that fulfills every French and German dream, none of this will do much to affect the security threat that most concerns the continent’s citizens: terrorism. | Even if the European Union holds a united front on Russia and goes on to build a military arm that fulfills every French and German dream, none of this will do much to affect the security threat that most concerns the continent’s citizens: terrorism. |
| Europe’s terrorism problem is largely an internal one. Attacks have mainly been conducted by European citizens, though many were trained by the Islamic State in Syria, and experts have deplored the union’s failures to share intelligence and monitor suspects. These problems are complicated by Europe’s open borders, making a counterterrorism shortfall in one country a risk to them all. | Europe’s terrorism problem is largely an internal one. Attacks have mainly been conducted by European citizens, though many were trained by the Islamic State in Syria, and experts have deplored the union’s failures to share intelligence and monitor suspects. These problems are complicated by Europe’s open borders, making a counterterrorism shortfall in one country a risk to them all. |
| Brexit would have little direct effect on these problems, analysts say, because Britain would most likely continue cooperating with the union on the issue. But if Brexit worsens European infighting and political paralysis, Mr. Haddad said, that could further distract from counterterrorism. | Brexit would have little direct effect on these problems, analysts say, because Britain would most likely continue cooperating with the union on the issue. But if Brexit worsens European infighting and political paralysis, Mr. Haddad said, that could further distract from counterterrorism. |
| So Brexit may give momentum to European ambitions to take on external security challenges, but not to confront its internal one. | So Brexit may give momentum to European ambitions to take on external security challenges, but not to confront its internal one. |
| This underscores a recurring issue with union leaders, who are often more focused on big projects than on meeting the concerns of citizens. Few voters in France or Germany are clamoring for a greater union footprint in global affairs or for military integration. | |
| These leaders also tend to gravitate toward policies that bring more official unity, regardless of public interest in such policies, and to play down problems that stem, at least in part, from the union’s foundational ideal of open borders. That tendency has fueled criticism from euroskeptics who say the European Union does not listen to Europeans. | |
| This tension could undercut any effort to integrate Europe’s militaries. As Mr. Meister, the German analyst, pointed out, military power is one of the most central expressions of sovereignty, and Europe’s current climate favors increasing individual states’ sovereignty rather than surrendering it. | This tension could undercut any effort to integrate Europe’s militaries. As Mr. Meister, the German analyst, pointed out, military power is one of the most central expressions of sovereignty, and Europe’s current climate favors increasing individual states’ sovereignty rather than surrendering it. |
| “Growing conflicts among the member states and growing populism makes it very difficult to step forward with projects like a European security and defense policy,” he said. | “Growing conflicts among the member states and growing populism makes it very difficult to step forward with projects like a European security and defense policy,” he said. |
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