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Nicola Sturgeon prepares for second Scottish independence poll Nicola Sturgeon: second Scottish independence poll highly likely
(about 2 hours later)
Nicola Sturgeon says she believes a second referendum on Scottish independence is “highly likely” after the UK overall voted to leave the EU. Scotland is on the brink of staging a fresh referendum on independence after Nicola Sturgeon requested talks with the European Union on separate membership after the UK’s vote to leave.
The first minister said her government had started the process of preparing legislation at Holyrood to pave the way for a second vote before the UK formally quits the EU in about two years. The first minister said she believed a second referendum on independence was “highly likely” after Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain within the EU, but was unable to prevent the leave campaign winning by 52% to 48% across the UK.
Speaking in Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she was deeply disappointed by the result of the UK referendum but said it had exposed a clear divide between Scottish and English voters, after Scotland voted heavily in favour of remaining. Sturgeon said that was a “democratic outrage” and constituted the clear, material change in Scotland’s circumstances which triggered the Scottish National party’s carefully worded manifesto commitment in May to hold a second independence vote if needed.
She said that divide met her government’s central test before holding a second vote on independence of “a material change” in Scotland’s position within the UK.
“It is a significant material change in circumstances. It’s a statement of the obvious that the option of a second independence referendum must be on the table and it is on the table,” she said.“It is a significant material change in circumstances. It’s a statement of the obvious that the option of a second independence referendum must be on the table and it is on the table,” she said.
SNP sources and activists within Women for Independence (WFI) said there had been a surge in membership, with people offering to campaign and donating money for a second referendum. Sturgeon announced she was instructing Scottish government officials to draft fresh referendum legislation for Holyrood, only two years after her party lost the first independence vote in 2014, to ensure a vote could be held quickly if enough Scottish voters backed it.
The SNP said it was being inundated with emails from previous no voters now pledging their support for independence following the conclusion of the EU referendum. “The surge is back,” said one WFI activist. UK government sources said David Cameron, who quit as prime minister after the referendum defeat, was anxious to ensure that his successor made sure the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish government were closely involved in the UK’s Brexit negotiations to avoid increasing Scottish grievances and fuelling the case for independence.
Sturgeon disclosed the Scottish government would seek urgent talks with the European commission and other member states to make clear Scotland wanted to remain within the EU – a clear hint she is hoping the EU will back the country’s continued membership before the UK formally leaves. Her cabinet will meet in emergency session on Saturday morning at her official residence Bute House, and is expected to agree plans to put forward referendum legislation in September’s programme for government.
Related: 'I'm now hoping for independence': Scottish readers on Brexit Holyrood would need Westminster’s legislative approval to stage an official referendum, as it did in 2014. Cameron had previously said no UK government would give that so soon after the 2014 vote but Sturgeon said on Friday it would be “inconceivable” for Westminster to ignore a democratic vote by MSPs requesting that authority.
Sturgeon said the Scottish parliament “must have the option to hold a referendum. I can therefore confirm today, in order to protect that position, we’re beginning now to prepare the legislation that would be required to enable a new independence referendum to take place”. In a significant boost to her strategy, MSPs in the Scottish Green party indicated she could win the six Scottish Green votes in the Scottish parliament which Sturgeon needs to ensure a Holyrood majority, as momentum behind a second vote sharply rose after the UK result became clear.
She added that it was “democratically unacceptable” that Scotland would be taken out of the EU against its will after the UK as a whole voted to back the leave campaign. The most recent polls suggest independence does not yet have clear majority support. But SNP sources and activists within Women for Independence (WFI) said there had been a surge on Friday in membership requests, with people offering to campaign and donating money.
Scotland voted to remain in the European Union by 62% to 38%. The UK as a whole voted to leave by 52% to 48%. Related: Nicola Sturgeon needs to keep Scotland in the EU. But how? | Lesley Riddoch
Earlier, Alex Salmond said he was certain Nicola Sturgeon would call for a second Scottish independence referendum after the UK voted to leave the EU. The SNP said it was being inundated with emails from previous no voters now pledging their support for independence after the conclusion of the EU referendum. The Radical Independence Campaign, which was heavily involved in registering first-time and alienated working-class voters during the last referendum campaign, likewise reported an increase in donations over the morning. “The surge is back on,” said one WFI activist.
The former first minister and Scottish National party (SNP) leader said Scotland must stage a second independence vote before the UK’s exit was agreed – a process expected to take two years to negotiate. A number of prominent former no voters have declared themselves ready to consider supporting independence should another referendum be called. Novelist Jenny Colgan, who wrote for the Guardian in September 2014 of the joy of Britishness, tweeted that she was weeping with relief as Sturgeon promised to fight for the interests of Scots who had voted to remain.
He too said the Brexit vote constituted a material change in Scotland’s position within the UK, telling BBC Radio Scotland: “This changes the whole context of Scottish independence.” Echoing earlier remarks by her predecessor Alex Salmond, Sturgeon said it made clear logical sense for those powers to be in place quickly and before the UK’s exit from the EU was completed by an expected deadline of 2018. There will be added urgency to that timetable after senior European commission and European parliament figures said they wanted the Brexit talks speeded up, to lessen the uncertainty now facing the EU.
Sturgeon implied she planned to press ahead with a second referendum by insisting she wanted to “take all possible steps and explore all options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted. In other words, to secure our continuing place in the EU and in the single market in particular.” Sturgeon said pressing ahead with an independence bill would ensure a seamless transition for Scotland from having EU membership as part of the UK to having it as an independent nation. She said her primary concern was to ensure that Scotland’s vote to remain in the EU, by 62% to 38%, was brought into effect.
Yet the SNP leader did not guarantee that her government would stage a second referendum, stressing that the challenges of leaving the UK were complex, despite Salmond’s insistence it was inevitable. She would “take all possible steps and explore all options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted. In other words, to secure our continuing place in the EU and in the single market in particular.”
Sturgeon is writing this weekend to all EU member states setting out her case for Scotland remaining in the UK and pressing for urgent talks in Brussels with the European commission president Jean-Claude Junker, where she will emphasise Scotland’s strong pro-European vote.
Salmond said staging a fast referendum was the most obvious solution. “The logic would be that Scotland would have the option of remaining within Europe while the rest of the UK left Europe, so there would be no logic in saying: let Scotland go out and then come back in again,” he told BBC Radio Scotland.
“We proved that we are a modern, outward looking, open and inclusive country,” she said. “And we said clearly that we do not want to leave the European Union. I am determined that we will do what it takes to make sure that these aspirations are realised.”
Sturgeon was careful to avoid giving any guarantee, however, that a second referendum would be held, stressing that the challenges of leaving the UK were complex and still unclear since the UK-EU negotiations had not yet begun.
The SNP would face significant economic, legal and political questions about leaving the UK. With the collapse in oil prices but high levels of public spending, it has a structural deficit of £15bn, and a weak economy hovering close to recession.The SNP would face significant economic, legal and political questions about leaving the UK. With the collapse in oil prices but high levels of public spending, it has a structural deficit of £15bn, and a weak economy hovering close to recession.
It would need to strike a deal with UK government about paying off its share of the UK’s £1.6tn debt. It would face losing Scotland’s share of the UK rebate, as well as finding the cash needed for Scotland’s contribution to the EU, and require the EU’s agreement on its currency. EU members may expect Scotland to join the euro.It would need to strike a deal with UK government about paying off its share of the UK’s £1.6tn debt. It would face losing Scotland’s share of the UK rebate, as well as finding the cash needed for Scotland’s contribution to the EU, and require the EU’s agreement on its currency. EU members may expect Scotland to join the euro.
Related: 'I'm now hoping for independence': Scottish readers on Brexit
That prospect was ruled out by Salmond on Friday morning. Implying that work was under way on alternatives to retaining sterling, he said. “There are a range of other options obviously, such as sterlingisation, an independent Scottish currency linked to the pound; an independent Scottish floating currency.”That prospect was ruled out by Salmond on Friday morning. Implying that work was under way on alternatives to retaining sterling, he said. “There are a range of other options obviously, such as sterlingisation, an independent Scottish currency linked to the pound; an independent Scottish floating currency.”
The Scottish Green party announced earlier on Friday morning it would launch a petition urging the Scottish parliament to explore “every option” after the referendum, in a clear hint that those options would include a second independence vote. The author JK Rowling, who voted against independence, has implied she may now rethink her position, and Salmond said major Scottish employers and companies, such as the whisky giant Diageo, would consider whether Scottish independence within the EU would ensure their continued access to the EU single market.
With the SNP two seats short of an overall majority at Holyrood, the vote of the Scottish Greens’ six pro-independence MSPs would be crucial in winning parliamentary backing for a second referendum.
Salmond said his successor now had to implement her manifesto pledge to call for a second referendum if there was “a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will”.
He said: “I’m quite certain that Nicola will start to implement that manifesto.”
Salmond added that a new prime minister to replace David Cameron, who announced his resignation on Friday morning, would soon have to invoke article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon treaty to start the process of leaving.
“That sets the clock ticking. So some time over the next two to two-and-a-half years, there would have to be a Scottish referendum to see if the people of Scotland want to assert their national independence, as part of a wider Europe.
“The logic would be that Scotland would have the option of remaining within Europe while the rest of the UK left Europe, so there would be no logic in saying: let Scotland go out and then come back in again.”
With Sturgeon due to make a statement on her plans for a second referendum later on Friday morning, Salmond implied that he knew she had begun planning for that vote and had looked at Scotland’s alternative currency options.
He suggested Sturgeon would be far more confident than many observers thought about her chances of persuading a majority of Scots to now back independence, despite a series of polls putting that at less than 50%.
The author JK Rowling, who voted against independence, has implied she would now rethink her position, and Salmond said major Scottish employers and companies, such as the whisky giant Diageo, would consider whether Scottish independence within the EU would ensure their continued access to the EU single market.
“There’s going to be rethinking by a whole range of companies because access to that marketplace is key to prosperity and one thing I’m sure Nicola Sturgeon won’t allow is the livelihoods of Scottish workers and their families being sacrificed and jeopardised by the incompetence of Westminster politicians,” Salmond told BBC Radio’s Good Morning Scotland.“There’s going to be rethinking by a whole range of companies because access to that marketplace is key to prosperity and one thing I’m sure Nicola Sturgeon won’t allow is the livelihoods of Scottish workers and their families being sacrificed and jeopardised by the incompetence of Westminster politicians,” Salmond told BBC Radio’s Good Morning Scotland.
Sturgeon has insisted that her government be given a direct role in the UK’s negotiations with the EU on exiting, but she could also demand that Westminster give Holyrood the legal authority to stage a second referendum if it wants to.