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UK's top credit rating at risk as Brexit recession looms - business live UK's top credit rating at risk as Brexit recession looms - business live
(35 minutes later)
2.03pm BST
14:03
Morgan Stanley 'moving 2,000 staff out of London'
The BBC’s Ben Thompson is reporting that US investment bank Morgan Stanley has begun the process of moving some staff out of the City, to Ireland and Germany.
Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt
We’re looking into it now.
It’s certainly plausible; last week, Morgan Stanley said it could relocate 1,000 workers out of the UK if the Leave campaign won yesterday’s referendum.
2.00pm BST
14:00
Nice chart from the FT, showing how today’s sterling plunge is the third-worst currency selloff in the last 40 years.
It is only beaten by the shock decision to lift Switzerland’s currency peg 18 months ago, and the turmoil caused to Japan by the 1973 oil crisis.
Pound's Brexit decline among biggest of any currency over 40 years https://t.co/6NhTX5IQzM pic.twitter.com/1pOKDqWQEK
1.57pm BST
13:57
Dominic Rushe
US markets are set to open soon and at the moment it looks bad.
Dow Jones Industrial futures - an indication of which way the market will go - are down 2.64% or 468 points. It’s not as bad as the drops we saw during the financial crisis - which were often twice that or more - but there are other signs of worry.
Oil is down, Brent crude is off 4.9% at $48.45, suggesting worries about a global slowdown. And gold - favourite investment of worried investors - is up 5.2% at $1,328.
1.47pm BST
13:47
The chancellor has also pledged to do all he can to implement the public’s decision.
In practice, though, David Cameron’s resignation casts a huge shadow over Osborne’s own career, after six years as Britain’s finance chief.
G7 central banks have taken steps to ensure adequate liquidity and to support functioning of markets
It was a hard fought campaign. It is not the outcome I wanted but I respect decision of British people and will do all I can to make it work
1.41pm BST
13:41
IMF urges Britain and Europe to work together
Breaking: The head of the International Monetary Fund has urged Britain and Europe to co-operate, following last night’s seismic referendum result.
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, also backed the decision by the central banks of Britain and the eurozone to promise massive liquidity injections, if needed (as covered this morning)
She says:
“We take note of the decision by the people of the United Kingdom. We urge the authorities in the U.K. and Europe to work collaboratively to ensure a smooth transition to a new economic relationship between the U.K. and the EU, including by clarifying the procedures and broad objectives that will guide the process.
“We strongly support commitments of the Bank of England and the ECB to supply liquidity to the banking system and curtail excess financial volatility. We will continue to monitor developments closely and stand ready to support our members as needed.”
Updated
at 1.41pm BST
1.38pm BST
13:38
Osborne briefs G7 on Brexit
World finance ministers and central bank chiefs have been briefed on Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
That’s according to Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer (at the time of writing, anyway) who says:
Just briefed G7 finance ministers and bank governors on outcome of EU referendum. They all respect the decision of the British people
Discussed with G7 colleagues market consequences of UK's decision to leave EU. @hmtreasury and @bankofengland monitoring situation closely
1.33pm BST
13:33
UK holiday firm Thomas Cook has halted web sales of foreign currencies, after being swamped with demand for euros from anxious Brits.
The company has also imposed a £1,000 limit on currency sales at its shops, due to unprecedented demand after a record-breaking fall for the pound overnight.
A spokeswoman told Reuters that:.
“We have temporarily suspended our travel money website following unprecedented customer demand for foreign currency overnight and this morning.
“The demand for the euro has been building and we have had to just restrict it for now. We have enough currency to fulfil our standing orders but we have had to restrict new orders.”
Earlier this week, there were queues outside FX dealers in London as people tried to protect themselves against a sterling crash. They now look quite prescient, given the pound has slumped from $1.50 to $1.37 in the last 14 hours.
Thomas Cook suspends online currency transactions https://t.co/L93e81nVPw
1.16pm BST1.16pm BST
13:1613:16
S&P confirms that Britain's credit rating is at riskS&P confirms that Britain's credit rating is at risk
Standard & Poor’s has confirmed it is reviewing the UK’s top-rated AAA credit rating, which means they are considering cutting it.Standard & Poor’s has confirmed it is reviewing the UK’s top-rated AAA credit rating, which means they are considering cutting it.
The rating agency fears that Britain’s growth performance, external funding, and the public balance sheet are all going to suffer.The rating agency fears that Britain’s growth performance, external funding, and the public balance sheet are all going to suffer.
And it warns that it could easily cut the rating by at least one notch, due to the economic problems Brexit will cause.And it warns that it could easily cut the rating by at least one notch, due to the economic problems Brexit will cause.
S&P says:S&P says:
A vote to leave would, in our view, deter investment in the economy, decrease official demand for sterling reserves, and put the U.K.’s financial services sector at a competitive disadvantage compared with other global financial centres.A vote to leave would, in our view, deter investment in the economy, decrease official demand for sterling reserves, and put the U.K.’s financial services sector at a competitive disadvantage compared with other global financial centres.
As mentioned earlier, S&P is the only one of the Big Three agencies to have kept a AAA rating on UK government debt.As mentioned earlier, S&P is the only one of the Big Three agencies to have kept a AAA rating on UK government debt.
1.07pm BST1.07pm BST
13:0713:07
JP Morgan's Flanders: Marine Le Pen will be happyJP Morgan's Flanders: Marine Le Pen will be happy
Julia KolleweJulia Kollewe
Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JP Morgan Asset Management, said that while the vote to leave was a “seismic change for the UK” it was unlikely to prove a threat to the world economy.Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe at JP Morgan Asset Management, said that while the vote to leave was a “seismic change for the UK” it was unlikely to prove a threat to the world economy.
She told a conference call this lunchtime that:She told a conference call this lunchtime that:
“I don’t think Brexit puts the global recovery at risk.”“I don’t think Brexit puts the global recovery at risk.”
However there were wider political consequences, she said, pointing to elections in France and Germany next year and in Spain on Sunday.However there were wider political consequences, she said, pointing to elections in France and Germany next year and in Spain on Sunday.
She singled out France’s far-right leader, saying:She singled out France’s far-right leader, saying:
“Marine Le Pen will feel strengthened by this.”“Marine Le Pen will feel strengthened by this.”
This is true....This is true....
Related: European far right hails Britain's Brexit voteRelated: European far right hails Britain's Brexit vote
Flanders estimated that it would reduce UK economic growth by 1.5% between now and 2017, and there could even be a quarter of contraction by the end of the year.Flanders estimated that it would reduce UK economic growth by 1.5% between now and 2017, and there could even be a quarter of contraction by the end of the year.
She said that while the government was likely to loosen fiscal policy in the short term to counter weaker economic growth, there could be more austerity in store in future years to balance the books.She said that while the government was likely to loosen fiscal policy in the short term to counter weaker economic growth, there could be more austerity in store in future years to balance the books.
Turning to the housing market, she said:Turning to the housing market, she said:
“The assumption that this is not going to be good for the London property market as a whole is a safe bet.”“The assumption that this is not going to be good for the London property market as a whole is a safe bet.”
12.53pm BST12.53pm BST
12:5312:53
Finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the world’s top advanced economies are have held a conference call to discuss Britain’s referendum.Finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the world’s top advanced economies are have held a conference call to discuss Britain’s referendum.
That’s according to German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jäger, who told reporters:That’s according to German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jäger, who told reporters:
“A teleconference of the G7 ministers and central bank governors is underway at this minute. At the end of this teleconference, there may be a statement.”“A teleconference of the G7 ministers and central bank governors is underway at this minute. At the end of this teleconference, there may be a statement.”
12.45pm BST12.45pm BST
12:4512:45
Lombard Odier: Recession is a near certaintyLombard Odier: Recession is a near certainty
Britain is almost certain to fall into recession, even if central banks act to prevent market mayhem.Britain is almost certain to fall into recession, even if central banks act to prevent market mayhem.
So argue Jan Straatman and Salman Ahmed of Lombard Odier Investment Managers, who write:So argue Jan Straatman and Salman Ahmed of Lombard Odier Investment Managers, who write:
Focusing on the Bank of England, the central bank is in a very tricky situation. The sharp macro imbalances facing the UK economy - the twin deficits - will continue to play out in the form of sustained pressure on sterling. Indeed, to protect the currency and the country from a balance of payment crisis, we think a sustained QE programme is unlikely to be the correct policy response.Focusing on the Bank of England, the central bank is in a very tricky situation. The sharp macro imbalances facing the UK economy - the twin deficits - will continue to play out in the form of sustained pressure on sterling. Indeed, to protect the currency and the country from a balance of payment crisis, we think a sustained QE programme is unlikely to be the correct policy response.
A recession is a near certainty and we expect inflation to rise sharply on the back of the weaker currency.A recession is a near certainty and we expect inflation to rise sharply on the back of the weaker currency.
They also predict further wild swings in the markets, following the prime minister’s resignation this morning which has left Boris Johnson as the front-runner to replace him.They also predict further wild swings in the markets, following the prime minister’s resignation this morning which has left Boris Johnson as the front-runner to replace him.
Sterling is at the centre of the storm, with a nearly 10% hit against the US dollar since Thursday’s close. Not surprisingly, traditional safe havens such as government bonds in advanced economies, the Japanese yen and gold are rallying as investors take flight to safety.Sterling is at the centre of the storm, with a nearly 10% hit against the US dollar since Thursday’s close. Not surprisingly, traditional safe havens such as government bonds in advanced economies, the Japanese yen and gold are rallying as investors take flight to safety.
In terms of pure politics, the turmoil for the UK and the European Union has just started. David Cameron announced his resignation but we expect the coming weeks and the upcoming Conservative leadership election to be tumultuous for markets and sterling.In terms of pure politics, the turmoil for the UK and the European Union has just started. David Cameron announced his resignation but we expect the coming weeks and the upcoming Conservative leadership election to be tumultuous for markets and sterling.
12.27pm BST
12:27
Over in Australia, people are discovering that they can’t exchange money into, or out of, British pounds.
Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s biggest bank, has told customers that sterling transfers aren’t currently available, while it assesses the aftermath of the Brexit poll.
@JoannaFarmer Due to recent results from the British exit referendum we are temporarily suspending all foreign exchange (1/2)
@JoannaFarmer of GBP pounds and transactions that do not include AUD until further notice (2/2). ^Mike
And some National Bank of Australia customers are finding problems transferring money into sterling, or US dollars.
@MarkDiStef @CommBank NAB as well - also it's not just to pounds, have people here trying to get to USD @NAB
The National Australia Bank follows Commonweath Bank... and frozen pound and US dollar exchange. Unprecedented? https://t.co/eMOyFoQecI
12.14pm BST
12:14
European bank shares have been roundly routed this morning, as investors predict weaker growth and new economic uncertainty:
#Brexit banks misery: It's the biggest selloff on record for European banks... pic.twitter.com/tKFqBrSDfx
Updated
at 12.22pm BST
12.13pm BST
12:13
Britain’s referendum has hit commodity prices, sending the oil price sliding and could also hurt efforts to rescue South Wales’ steel industry.
Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, has tumbled by 5% today to $48.38 per barrel.
That reflects fears that Brexit will weaken the global economy.
Sebastien Marlier, senior commodities editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit, believes oil will continue to weaken:
Uncertainty about the UK, EU and global economy will initially translate into weaker commodity prices. The recent upward trend in oil prices will reverse, with the price of crude falling quickly back below US$40/barrel on weaker sentiment. Most commodities will follow suit. Gold will be an outlier, however, and will continue its upward trend amid investor flight to safety. Significantly for the UK, there is also a risk that the coming period of volatility could undermine negotiations to save Tata’s Port Talbot steelworks.
After the initial shock of Brexit wears off, fundamentals should gradually reassert their influence over the oil and commodities markets, with prices rising again as demand and supply come closer to balance. However, Brexit will lead to slightly slower European and global economic growth in the medium term. This will translate into a more gradual increase in oil demand and, in turn, the oil price.
11.59am BST
11:59
London’s new mayor is already taking steps to be closely involved in the Brexit talks:
Spokesman for @SadiqKhan confirms he has spoken to @NicolaSturgeon about need for Scotland+London to have seat at Brexit negotiating table.
11.58am BST
11:58
Simon Goodley
Over at City stockbroker Panmure Gordon, which also saw a return to 1980s-style vocal trading earlier today, the mood has calmed a tad.
The most audible voice now belongs to a television presenter, rather than traders yelling buy and sell orders to each other (as during the dramatic market open at 8am)
Now the reality of Brexit is sinking in, brokers here are finding that American clients see an investment opportunity and many of them have been buying London-listed shares. Their dollars go a bit further than they did.
However, that is not to be confused with US investors thinking that the UK has made a sensible choice.
Nick Hiley, head of sales at Panmure Gordon, says:
“UK investors often make the error of thinking our assets are priced in sterling. They’re not. [The rest of the world views them as being] priced in dollars. In dollars the market is off much more. The damage is considerable.”
Right now, the FTSE 100 is down 300 points or 4.8%, a loss of £77bn. But the market is also worth 8% less than yesterday, due to the slump in the pound.
£ has been mullered, stocks much less so. FTSE-100 over a year -7% in £, -22% in $ pic.twitter.com/3ePoEoUAzP
Updated
at 12.03pm BST
11.41am BST
11:41
The pound has dropped by two cents in the last few minutes, after Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, floated the prospect of a second independence referendum.
Sturgeon is holding a press conference right now. She says that another referendum is now very likely, and that Scotland shouldn’t be taken out of the EU against its will.
This has knocked the pound back to $1.367, from $1.39 at 11am BST.
Strong from Sturgeon: Scotland forced to leave EU against our will would be "democratically unacceptable" #Brexit
Sturgeon: I think a 2nd independence referendum is now highly likely
11.31am BST
11:31
The US stock market is expected to fall by over 2.5% when New York traders gets their teeth into Brexit, in three hour’s time.
Dow Futures down 500, Crude drops 5%, Gold rallies 5%,10 year yield down to 1.5%. Buckle up #Brexit #CNBC
11.29am BST
11:29
UK house prices to be hit by Brexit
House prices are a popular conversation point at British dinner parties, school gates and cafes at the best of times.
So this morning, many people are wondering what the EU referendum means for the property market. And the early verdict is that it’s going to dampen demand, and push prices down.
Jan Crosby, head of housing at KPMG UK, predicts at least six months of uncertainty -- and longer in London. He expects prices to take a 5% hit, but more in the capital.
“As we enter a new phase of uncertainty following the UK’s vote to leave the EU, it is very likely people will put big decisions on hold, and one of the biggest decisions people ever make is a house purchase.
This means we can expect short term transaction volumes to decrease and to stay deflated for some time – perhaps until next spring. While we may not notice much of a change over summer, given the traditional hiatus in the housing market, the usual pick up in autumn may not materialise.
Richard Donnell, insight director at property consultancy Hometrack, also expects demand for new houses to slide:
“The immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see the short-term impact on financial markets and the economy at large.
Related: House price fall could follow Brexit, say experts
Updated
at 11.35am BST
11.12am BST
11:12
Fidelity predicts mild UK recession
David Cameron’s resignation means Britain is now gripped by a political crisis, as well as an economic one.
Dominic Rossi, global CIO of Equities at Fidelity International, believes the political shock will be more serious. But he also believes Britain will fall back into recession, at a time of growing risk worldwide.
“From an economic point of view, we can expect lower growth in the UK and across Europe, and that is now being discounted in equity markets. We also expect a mild recession in the UK over the course of this year and into next year.
However, what matters more is that political risk premia will now rise around the world and this implies lower valuations. Today’s result will set off a domino effect of political risk. Whether it’s the US election later this year or the French election next year, investors are going to be far more cautious.
11.06am BST
11:06
Jonathan Hill, the British European Commissioner, could become an early casualty of the referendum.
Hill is currently responsibly for financial stability, financial services and capital markets union. But not for much longer, if some MEPs get their way.
German MEP Elmar Brok says European Parliament will call on Juncker to immediately strip British commissioner of financial services brief