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| Version 11 | Version 12 |
|---|---|
| Bank of England and ECB promise to protect markets from Brexit panic - business live | Bank of England and ECB promise to protect markets from Brexit panic - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.53pm BST | |
| 12:53 | |
| Finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the world’s top advanced economies are have held a conference call to discuss Britain’s referendum. | |
| That’s according to German finance ministry spokesman Martin Jäger, who told reporters: | |
| “A teleconference of the G7 ministers and central bank governors is underway at this minute. At the end of this teleconference, there may be a statement.” | |
| 12.45pm BST | |
| 12:45 | |
| Lombard Odier: Recession is a near certainty | |
| Britain is almost certain to fall into recession, even if central banks act to prevent market mayhem. | |
| So argue Jan Straatman and Salman Ahmed of Lombard Odier Investment Managers, who write: | |
| Focusing on the Bank of England, the central bank is in a very tricky situation. The sharp macro imbalances facing the UK economy - the twin deficits - will continue to play out in the form of sustained pressure on sterling. Indeed, to protect the currency and the country from a balance of payment crisis, we think a sustained QE programme is unlikely to be the correct policy response. | |
| A recession is a near certainty and we expect inflation to rise sharply on the back of the weaker currency. | |
| They also predict further wild swings in the markets, following the prime minister’s resignation this morning which has left Boris Johnson as the front-runner to replace him. | |
| Sterling is at the centre of the storm, with a nearly 10% hit against the US dollar since Thursday’s close. Not surprisingly, traditional safe havens such as government bonds in advanced economies, the Japanese yen and gold are rallying as investors take flight to safety. | |
| In terms of pure politics, the turmoil for the UK and the European Union has just started. David Cameron announced his resignation but we expect the coming weeks and the upcoming Conservative leadership election to be tumultuous for markets and sterling. | |
| 12.27pm BST | |
| 12:27 | |
| Over in Australia, people are discovering that they can’t exchange money into, or out of, British pounds. | |
| Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s biggest bank, has told customers that sterling transfers aren’t currently available, while it assesses the aftermath of the Brexit poll. | |
| @JoannaFarmer Due to recent results from the British exit referendum we are temporarily suspending all foreign exchange (1/2) | |
| @JoannaFarmer of GBP pounds and transactions that do not include AUD until further notice (2/2). ^Mike | |
| And some National Bank of Australia customers are finding problems transferring money into sterling, or US dollars. | |
| @MarkDiStef @CommBank NAB as well - also it's not just to pounds, have people here trying to get to USD @NAB | |
| The National Australia Bank follows Commonweath Bank... and frozen pound and US dollar exchange. Unprecedented? https://t.co/eMOyFoQecI | |
| 12.14pm BST | 12.14pm BST |
| 12:14 | 12:14 |
| European bank shares have been roundly routed this morning, as investors predict weaker growth and new economic uncertainty: | |
| #Brexit banks misery: It's the biggest selloff on record for European banks... pic.twitter.com/tKFqBrSDfx | #Brexit banks misery: It's the biggest selloff on record for European banks... pic.twitter.com/tKFqBrSDfx |
| Updated | |
| at 12.22pm BST | |
| 12.13pm BST | 12.13pm BST |
| 12:13 | 12:13 |
| Britain’s referendum has hit commodity prices, sending the oil price sliding and could also hurt efforts to rescue South Wales’ steel industry. | Britain’s referendum has hit commodity prices, sending the oil price sliding and could also hurt efforts to rescue South Wales’ steel industry. |
| Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, has tumbled by 5% today to $48.38 per barrel. | Brent crude, sourced from the North Sea, has tumbled by 5% today to $48.38 per barrel. |
| That reflects fears that Brexit will weaken the global economy. | That reflects fears that Brexit will weaken the global economy. |
| Sebastien Marlier, senior commodities editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit, believes oil will continue to weaken: | Sebastien Marlier, senior commodities editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit, believes oil will continue to weaken: |
| Uncertainty about the UK, EU and global economy will initially translate into weaker commodity prices. The recent upward trend in oil prices will reverse, with the price of crude falling quickly back below US$40/barrel on weaker sentiment. Most commodities will follow suit. Gold will be an outlier, however, and will continue its upward trend amid investor flight to safety. Significantly for the UK, there is also a risk that the coming period of volatility could undermine negotiations to save Tata’s Port Talbot steelworks. | Uncertainty about the UK, EU and global economy will initially translate into weaker commodity prices. The recent upward trend in oil prices will reverse, with the price of crude falling quickly back below US$40/barrel on weaker sentiment. Most commodities will follow suit. Gold will be an outlier, however, and will continue its upward trend amid investor flight to safety. Significantly for the UK, there is also a risk that the coming period of volatility could undermine negotiations to save Tata’s Port Talbot steelworks. |
| After the initial shock of Brexit wears off, fundamentals should gradually reassert their influence over the oil and commodities markets, with prices rising again as demand and supply come closer to balance. However, Brexit will lead to slightly slower European and global economic growth in the medium term. This will translate into a more gradual increase in oil demand and, in turn, the oil price. | After the initial shock of Brexit wears off, fundamentals should gradually reassert their influence over the oil and commodities markets, with prices rising again as demand and supply come closer to balance. However, Brexit will lead to slightly slower European and global economic growth in the medium term. This will translate into a more gradual increase in oil demand and, in turn, the oil price. |
| 11.59am BST | 11.59am BST |
| 11:59 | 11:59 |
| London’s new mayor is already taking steps to be closely involved in the Brexit talks: | London’s new mayor is already taking steps to be closely involved in the Brexit talks: |
| Spokesman for @SadiqKhan confirms he has spoken to @NicolaSturgeon about need for Scotland+London to have seat at Brexit negotiating table. | Spokesman for @SadiqKhan confirms he has spoken to @NicolaSturgeon about need for Scotland+London to have seat at Brexit negotiating table. |
| 11.58am BST | 11.58am BST |
| 11:58 | 11:58 |
| Simon Goodley | Simon Goodley |
| Over at City stockbroker Panmure Gordon, which also saw a return to 1980s-style vocal trading earlier today, the mood has calmed a tad. | Over at City stockbroker Panmure Gordon, which also saw a return to 1980s-style vocal trading earlier today, the mood has calmed a tad. |
| The most audible voice now belongs to a television presenter, rather than traders yelling buy and sell orders to each other (as during the dramatic market open at 8am) | The most audible voice now belongs to a television presenter, rather than traders yelling buy and sell orders to each other (as during the dramatic market open at 8am) |
| Now the reality of Brexit is sinking in, brokers here are finding that American clients see an investment opportunity and many of them have been buying London-listed shares. Their dollars go a bit further than they did. | Now the reality of Brexit is sinking in, brokers here are finding that American clients see an investment opportunity and many of them have been buying London-listed shares. Their dollars go a bit further than they did. |
| However, that is not to be confused with US investors thinking that the UK has made a sensible choice. | However, that is not to be confused with US investors thinking that the UK has made a sensible choice. |
| Nick Hiley, head of sales at Panmure Gordon, says: | Nick Hiley, head of sales at Panmure Gordon, says: |
| “UK investors often make the error of thinking our assets are priced in sterling. They’re not. [The rest of the world views them as being] priced in dollars. In dollars the market is off much more. The damage is considerable.” | “UK investors often make the error of thinking our assets are priced in sterling. They’re not. [The rest of the world views them as being] priced in dollars. In dollars the market is off much more. The damage is considerable.” |
| Right now, the FTSE 100 is down 300 points or 4.8%, a loss of £77bn. But the market is also worth 8% less than yesterday, due to the slump in the pound. | Right now, the FTSE 100 is down 300 points or 4.8%, a loss of £77bn. But the market is also worth 8% less than yesterday, due to the slump in the pound. |
| £ has been mullered, stocks much less so. FTSE-100 over a year -7% in £, -22% in $ pic.twitter.com/3ePoEoUAzP | £ has been mullered, stocks much less so. FTSE-100 over a year -7% in £, -22% in $ pic.twitter.com/3ePoEoUAzP |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.03pm BST | at 12.03pm BST |
| 11.41am BST | 11.41am BST |
| 11:41 | 11:41 |
| The pound has dropped by two cents in the last few minutes, after Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, floated the prospect of a second independence referendum. | The pound has dropped by two cents in the last few minutes, after Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, floated the prospect of a second independence referendum. |
| Sturgeon is holding a press conference right now. She says that another referendum is now very likely, and that Scotland shouldn’t be taken out of the EU against its will. | Sturgeon is holding a press conference right now. She says that another referendum is now very likely, and that Scotland shouldn’t be taken out of the EU against its will. |
| This has knocked the pound back to $1.367, from $1.39 at 11am BST. | This has knocked the pound back to $1.367, from $1.39 at 11am BST. |
| Strong from Sturgeon: Scotland forced to leave EU against our will would be "democratically unacceptable" #Brexit | Strong from Sturgeon: Scotland forced to leave EU against our will would be "democratically unacceptable" #Brexit |
| Sturgeon: I think a 2nd independence referendum is now highly likely | Sturgeon: I think a 2nd independence referendum is now highly likely |
| 11.31am BST | 11.31am BST |
| 11:31 | 11:31 |
| The US stock market is expected to fall by over 2.5% when New York traders gets their teeth into Brexit, in three hour’s time. | The US stock market is expected to fall by over 2.5% when New York traders gets their teeth into Brexit, in three hour’s time. |
| Dow Futures down 500, Crude drops 5%, Gold rallies 5%,10 year yield down to 1.5%. Buckle up #Brexit #CNBC | Dow Futures down 500, Crude drops 5%, Gold rallies 5%,10 year yield down to 1.5%. Buckle up #Brexit #CNBC |
| 11.29am BST | 11.29am BST |
| 11:29 | 11:29 |
| UK house prices to be hit by Brexit | UK house prices to be hit by Brexit |
| House prices are a popular conversation point at British dinner parties, school gates and cafes at the best of times. | House prices are a popular conversation point at British dinner parties, school gates and cafes at the best of times. |
| So this morning, many people are wondering what the EU referendum means for the property market. And the early verdict is that it’s going to dampen demand, and push prices down. | So this morning, many people are wondering what the EU referendum means for the property market. And the early verdict is that it’s going to dampen demand, and push prices down. |
| Jan Crosby, head of housing at KPMG UK, predicts at least six months of uncertainty -- and longer in London. He expects prices to take a 5% hit, but more in the capital. | Jan Crosby, head of housing at KPMG UK, predicts at least six months of uncertainty -- and longer in London. He expects prices to take a 5% hit, but more in the capital. |
| “As we enter a new phase of uncertainty following the UK’s vote to leave the EU, it is very likely people will put big decisions on hold, and one of the biggest decisions people ever make is a house purchase. | “As we enter a new phase of uncertainty following the UK’s vote to leave the EU, it is very likely people will put big decisions on hold, and one of the biggest decisions people ever make is a house purchase. |
| This means we can expect short term transaction volumes to decrease and to stay deflated for some time – perhaps until next spring. While we may not notice much of a change over summer, given the traditional hiatus in the housing market, the usual pick up in autumn may not materialise. | This means we can expect short term transaction volumes to decrease and to stay deflated for some time – perhaps until next spring. While we may not notice much of a change over summer, given the traditional hiatus in the housing market, the usual pick up in autumn may not materialise. |
| Richard Donnell, insight director at property consultancy Hometrack, also expects demand for new houses to slide: | Richard Donnell, insight director at property consultancy Hometrack, also expects demand for new houses to slide: |
| “The immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see the short-term impact on financial markets and the economy at large. | “The immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see the short-term impact on financial markets and the economy at large. |
| Related: House price fall could follow Brexit, say experts | Related: House price fall could follow Brexit, say experts |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.35am BST | at 11.35am BST |
| 11.12am BST | 11.12am BST |
| 11:12 | 11:12 |
| Fidelity predicts mild UK recession | Fidelity predicts mild UK recession |
| David Cameron’s resignation means Britain is now gripped by a political crisis, as well as an economic one. | David Cameron’s resignation means Britain is now gripped by a political crisis, as well as an economic one. |
| Dominic Rossi, global CIO of Equities at Fidelity International, believes the political shock will be more serious. But he also believes Britain will fall back into recession, at a time of growing risk worldwide. | Dominic Rossi, global CIO of Equities at Fidelity International, believes the political shock will be more serious. But he also believes Britain will fall back into recession, at a time of growing risk worldwide. |
| “From an economic point of view, we can expect lower growth in the UK and across Europe, and that is now being discounted in equity markets. We also expect a mild recession in the UK over the course of this year and into next year. | “From an economic point of view, we can expect lower growth in the UK and across Europe, and that is now being discounted in equity markets. We also expect a mild recession in the UK over the course of this year and into next year. |
| However, what matters more is that political risk premia will now rise around the world and this implies lower valuations. Today’s result will set off a domino effect of political risk. Whether it’s the US election later this year or the French election next year, investors are going to be far more cautious. | However, what matters more is that political risk premia will now rise around the world and this implies lower valuations. Today’s result will set off a domino effect of political risk. Whether it’s the US election later this year or the French election next year, investors are going to be far more cautious. |
| 11.06am BST | 11.06am BST |
| 11:06 | 11:06 |
| Jonathan Hill, the British European Commissioner, could become an early casualty of the referendum. | Jonathan Hill, the British European Commissioner, could become an early casualty of the referendum. |
| Hill is currently responsibly for financial stability, financial services and capital markets union. But not for much longer, if some MEPs get their way. | Hill is currently responsibly for financial stability, financial services and capital markets union. But not for much longer, if some MEPs get their way. |
| German MEP Elmar Brok says European Parliament will call on Juncker to immediately strip British commissioner of financial services brief | German MEP Elmar Brok says European Parliament will call on Juncker to immediately strip British commissioner of financial services brief |