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| ‘Brexit’ and the Risks of Democracy | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| The Brexit ballot puts one of democracy’s riskiest tools, the referendum, to the test. | The Brexit ballot puts one of democracy’s riskiest tools, the referendum, to the test. |
| The British people are voting on whether to leave the European Union. The betting markets and the financial markets are both signaling that the country will vote to stay. But even if Britain rejects Brexit, as leaving the European Union is known, the very act of holding a referendum will come in for criticism. | The British people are voting on whether to leave the European Union. The betting markets and the financial markets are both signaling that the country will vote to stay. But even if Britain rejects Brexit, as leaving the European Union is known, the very act of holding a referendum will come in for criticism. |
| In a single-issue vote, a small number of people can change the course of an entire country for generations. All it would take is a simple majority of Britons to throw Europe into turmoil with a vote to leave. This problem is made much worse if turnout is low. | In a single-issue vote, a small number of people can change the course of an entire country for generations. All it would take is a simple majority of Britons to throw Europe into turmoil with a vote to leave. This problem is made much worse if turnout is low. |
| Referendums can also distill complex issues into a simplistic choice, stoking a harsh type of populism. Critics of California’s habit of holding single-issue ballots point to votes that limited increases in property taxes and introduced the “three-strikes” minimum sentencing law. And a leader may hold a referendum for expedient political reasons — an accusation made against David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister — rather than for the good of the country. | Referendums can also distill complex issues into a simplistic choice, stoking a harsh type of populism. Critics of California’s habit of holding single-issue ballots point to votes that limited increases in property taxes and introduced the “three-strikes” minimum sentencing law. And a leader may hold a referendum for expedient political reasons — an accusation made against David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister — rather than for the good of the country. |
| Then there’s the democratic argument against referendums: The electorate already gets a chance to vote on big issues in a general election. In recent years, neither of Britain’s two main political parties has run on a platform that includes leaving the European Union, and voters have repeatedly backed them to form governments. Also, a large proportion of current members of the British Parliament want Britain to remain in the union. This could cause a mess if Britain votes to leave. In such an outcome, politicians who favor Brexit are expected to take power. But the mostly pro-Europe Parliament might not support those leaders, leading to a period of turmoil and paralysis. | Then there’s the democratic argument against referendums: The electorate already gets a chance to vote on big issues in a general election. In recent years, neither of Britain’s two main political parties has run on a platform that includes leaving the European Union, and voters have repeatedly backed them to form governments. Also, a large proportion of current members of the British Parliament want Britain to remain in the union. This could cause a mess if Britain votes to leave. In such an outcome, politicians who favor Brexit are expected to take power. But the mostly pro-Europe Parliament might not support those leaders, leading to a period of turmoil and paralysis. |
| Pretty ugly. So why might holding the ballot be worth these risks? | Pretty ugly. So why might holding the ballot be worth these risks? |
| Two reasons: A vote is overdue, and the British people seem to want the opportunity to vote on Europe separately from a general election. | Two reasons: A vote is overdue, and the British people seem to want the opportunity to vote on Europe separately from a general election. |
| The last time Britain held a referendum on Europe was over 40 years ago. Since then, much has changed in Britain’s relations with what became the European Union. Other countries, including France in 2005, got a chance to vote on important changes, but Britain did not till now. | The last time Britain held a referendum on Europe was over 40 years ago. Since then, much has changed in Britain’s relations with what became the European Union. Other countries, including France in 2005, got a chance to vote on important changes, but Britain did not till now. |
| And it appears that turnout will be particularly strong for the Brexit vote, as was the case for Scotland’s vote in 2014 on whether to remain part of Britain. | And it appears that turnout will be particularly strong for the Brexit vote, as was the case for Scotland’s vote in 2014 on whether to remain part of Britain. |
| Such referendums may appeal to voters because they offer the freedom to go against the position held by the political party they normally support. In the Brexit vote, for instance, 32 percent of voters who backed the pro-Europe Labor Party at the last general election say they will vote to leave, according to a YouGov poll conducted in the last few days. And 41 percent of backers of the Conservative Party, in which there is considerable hostility toward the European Union, said they would vote to stay. | Such referendums may appeal to voters because they offer the freedom to go against the position held by the political party they normally support. In the Brexit vote, for instance, 32 percent of voters who backed the pro-Europe Labor Party at the last general election say they will vote to leave, according to a YouGov poll conducted in the last few days. And 41 percent of backers of the Conservative Party, in which there is considerable hostility toward the European Union, said they would vote to stay. |
| In some ways, it might appear that the plebiscite has encouraged people to adopt Manichaean views, particularly on immigration. A new Ipsos MORI poll shows that concern about immigration rose significantly as the vote approached. | In some ways, it might appear that the plebiscite has encouraged people to adopt Manichaean views, particularly on immigration. A new Ipsos MORI poll shows that concern about immigration rose significantly as the vote approached. |
| But the YouGov poll found that concerns about the economy and sovereignty were dominant. The poll asked which one issue would play the biggest role in deciding how the respondents intended to vote in the referendum. A third said their biggest consideration was what would be best for jobs and the economy, while 29 percent said they would choose mainly on the basis of what would best allow Britain to balance sovereignty and cooperation with other countries. Only 18 percent said immigration was the most important issue. | But the YouGov poll found that concerns about the economy and sovereignty were dominant. The poll asked which one issue would play the biggest role in deciding how the respondents intended to vote in the referendum. A third said their biggest consideration was what would be best for jobs and the economy, while 29 percent said they would choose mainly on the basis of what would best allow Britain to balance sovereignty and cooperation with other countries. Only 18 percent said immigration was the most important issue. |
| The Brexit referendum has been bruising for Britain. But it’s hard to say it was bad for its democracy. | The Brexit referendum has been bruising for Britain. But it’s hard to say it was bad for its democracy. |