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US Federal Reserve says Brexit a factor in rates hold decision | US Federal Reserve says Brexit a factor in rates hold decision |
(35 minutes later) | |
The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at between 0.25% and 0.5% in the face of an uncertain jobs market. | The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at between 0.25% and 0.5% in the face of an uncertain jobs market. |
The possibility of Brexit was one of the factors that led the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, Chair Janet Yellen said. | The possibility of Brexit was one of the factors that led the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold, Chair Janet Yellen said. |
The US central bank also said it expected a "slower path" for future rate rises. | The US central bank also said it expected a "slower path" for future rate rises. |
It raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. | It raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. |
On the 23 June UK referendum on whether to stay in the European Union, Ms Yellen said: "Clearly this is a very important decision for the United Kingdom and for Europe. | On the 23 June UK referendum on whether to stay in the European Union, Ms Yellen said: "Clearly this is a very important decision for the United Kingdom and for Europe. |
"It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets. | "It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets. |
"If it does so it could have consequences in turn for the US economic outlook that would be a factor in deciding on the appropriate path of policy," she added. | "If it does so it could have consequences in turn for the US economic outlook that would be a factor in deciding on the appropriate path of policy," she added. |
Fed policymakers did not reveal when rates might rise, but the door has been left open for an increase when they next meet at the end of July. | Fed policymakers did not reveal when rates might rise, but the door has been left open for an increase when they next meet at the end of July. |
Chair Yellen added: "Proceeding cautiously and raising our interest-rate target will allow us to verify that economic growth will return to a moderate pace, that the labor market will strengthen further, and that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% objective." | Chair Yellen added: "Proceeding cautiously and raising our interest-rate target will allow us to verify that economic growth will return to a moderate pace, that the labor market will strengthen further, and that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% objective." |
The Fed said in a statement that the pace of improvement in the labour market had slowed. The bank added, however, that "economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labour market indicators will strengthen" even with gradual rate increases. | The Fed said in a statement that the pace of improvement in the labour market had slowed. The bank added, however, that "economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labour market indicators will strengthen" even with gradual rate increases. |
Analysis: Andrew Walker, BBC News | |
The key consideration in this decision was the US jobs market - with a little help from the uncertainties arising from the forthcoming British referendum and a few other factors. | |
We have had two months where job creation has been disappointing, especially May. | |
The Fed Chair Janet Yellen called it "something of a loss of momentum". | |
But she also said signs there were signs that the labour market is "approaching maximum employment" and it's important not to attach too much importance to one data point. | |
She - and, she said, the Fed's policy making committee - did not feel that "progress in the labour market has come to an end". | |
Which leaves us (or at least me) having to pore over the next jobs report to see how likely a rate rise is in July. | |
At this stage it doesn't look very likely, but it is not altogether off the table. | |
The dollar fell against the euro and sterling, but Wall Street held on to earlier gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%. | The dollar fell against the euro and sterling, but Wall Street held on to earlier gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%. |
The Fed expected the unemployment rate to stand at 4.7% by the end of this year, before falling to 4.6% in 2017 and remain at that level in 2018. | The Fed expected the unemployment rate to stand at 4.7% by the end of this year, before falling to 4.6% in 2017 and remain at that level in 2018. |
In May, US job creation fell to its lowest level in more than five years, after faltering in April. | In May, US job creation fell to its lowest level in more than five years, after faltering in April. |
Ms Yellen said it was important not to overreact to one or two monthly readings. | Ms Yellen said it was important not to overreact to one or two monthly readings. |
"That said, we will be watching the job market carefully," she added. | "That said, we will be watching the job market carefully," she added. |
'Dovish' | 'Dovish' |
The Fed now expects the US economy to expand by only 2% a year for the foreseeable future - slightly lower than the forecast in March. | The Fed now expects the US economy to expand by only 2% a year for the foreseeable future - slightly lower than the forecast in March. |
Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo Funds Management said: "It's as dovish as the Fed can get without actually cutting rates." | Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo Funds Management said: "It's as dovish as the Fed can get without actually cutting rates." |
Aaron Kohli of BMO Capital Markets agreed that the statement appeared "somewhat dovish", adding: "The market had expected them to moderate their tone a little bit given what's been going on and given the risk that we have in terms of Brexit." | Aaron Kohli of BMO Capital Markets agreed that the statement appeared "somewhat dovish", adding: "The market had expected them to moderate their tone a little bit given what's been going on and given the risk that we have in terms of Brexit." |