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Version 4 Version 5
EU referendum live: 57 Tory MPs 'would vote against' Osborne's Brexit budget EU referendum live: 57 Tory MPs 'would vote against' Osborne's Brexit budget
(35 minutes later)
10.07am BST
10:07
Farage says Osborne's claims 'not credible'
And here is some Ukip reaction to George Osborne.
From Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader
Academic review shows Treasury wildly exaggerating impact of Leaving EU. Mr. Osborne's claims not credible. https://t.co/Ht2P8If5L8
From Suzanne Evans
If my timeline is anything to go by, Osborne is toast.
#punishmentbudget illustrates the depth of contempt Osborne & #Remain chums have for us, the UK & his own -quite clearly - lying manifesto.
10.03am BST
10:03
Here is ITV’s Robert Peston on George Osborne’s stance.
.@George_Osborne bet his job as Chancellor on winning referendum vote for Remain, as 57 Tory MPs say he has to go if pushes emergency budget
This is probably true, although the idea that Osborne had any chance of merrily carrying on a chancellor if Britain voted to leave the EU was implausible anyway. Although many senior Leave figures say publicly that they would want David Cameron to stay on as prime minister if Leave wins, in reality almost everyone thinks he would resign before the end of the year. And, with Leave winning and Cameron gone, Osborne would be out too.
9.58am BST
09:58
Here is Jonathan Portes, a former senior government economist and now a fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, on George Osborne’s proposals.
Post-Brexit, an "emergency Budget" to raise taxes & cut spending would be precisely wrong response. My thoughts: pic.twitter.com/LiX8RSZOyD
9.51am BST
09:51
Osborne on Today - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat
This is what journalists are saying about George Osborne’s Today interview, and about his post-Brexit emergency budget proposal generally.
From PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield
That might be the worst Today interview George Osborne has ever given. Sounded rattled.
From the Telegraph’s Allison Pearson
Bravo @MishalHusainBBC for calling out George Osborne on apocalyptic Punishment Budget threat @BBCr4today
From the Financial Times’ Chris Giles
After Brexit, public finances need 2 things: Immediate flexibility, & a plan for postponed prudence. Osborne weak on 1), strong on 2)
From the Financial Times’ Stefan Stern
I would not play a game of chicken with George Osborne. He has a stronger nerve than most. Certainly stronger than flapping backbenchers.
From Paul Mason, a Guardian columnist
Osborne's attempt to scare people with Brexit=Cuts is irresponsible nonsense - I'll try to persuade you to Remain calmly & rationally (1/2)
(2/2) as Macmillan said: UK workers beat Hitler & Kaiser... They won't be scared sh*tless by Osborne and the Institute for Fiscal Studies
From Sky’s Faisal Islam
On Osborne Brexit fiscal black hole fears -said similar re Scotland 2014 - Project Fear? - It turned out even worse: pic.twitter.com/geTdBoQxr3
- on above tables, look at the last line "Memo" - Osborne 2014 warning of £4bn fall in volatile North Sea revenues - correct, conservative
From the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves
Starting to think Osborne may have delivered his last Budget, whichever way the referendum goes
From the BBC’s Andrew Neil
Substantial Tory backbench revolt says if Mr Osborne proceeded with his "punishment" budget, his position as Chancellor would be untenable.
From the Times’ Michael Savage
If there's a #Remain vote, Osborne has now dented his reputation with huge chunk of Tory MPs. Big sign of #Brexit worry inside Downing St.
From ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman
If Brexit happens, MPs will stop Osborne's emergency budget. And he won’t be in post for long anyway. https://t.co/OvP9cxhEnM
From the Daily Mail’s Isabel Oakeshott
Bear in mind that if Britain votes for Brexit @George_Osborne wont be Chancellor any more. He'd prob have to resign within hours
9.42am BST
09:42
Here is Robert Oxley, head of media for Vote Leave, on George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget.
Osborne says this is how any Chancellor would respond. Darling faced with an actual crisis in 2008 chose precisely opposite fiscal policies
Oxley is referring to the way that, when faced with an economic crisis in 2008, the then chancellor Alistair Darling increased borrowing and cut VAT by 2.5% to stimulate the economy.
9.35am BST
09:35
Gisela Stuart says Labour would never back Osborne's proposed post-Brexit emergency budget
Here is the Labour MP Gisela Stuart, chair of Vote Leave, on George Osborne’s claims about the need for a tax-raising emergency budget after a vote to leave the EU. She said:
I simply can’t believe that Alistair Darling and the Labour party would support an Osborne punishment budget that is designed to hit the poorest hardest. George Osborne’s reckless and shameful proposals would, if not blocked, cut the NHS, cut pensions and cut funding for schools and I will never vote for this and nor do I think will any of my Labour colleagues.
I hope the Labour party will now make clear that these desperate proposals would never have our support, and are nothing more than another sorry attempt to scare the British people into supporting George Osborne, David Cameron, and their rich friends who want us to remain in the EU.
9.26am BST9.26am BST
09:2609:26
Duncan Smith says Osborne's post-Brexit budget warning most irresponsible thing he's seen from a chancellorDuncan Smith says Osborne's post-Brexit budget warning most irresponsible thing he's seen from a chancellor
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary and one of the 57 Tory MPs who has signed the letter saying they would vote down George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget (see 8.29am) has told LBC that Osborne’s warning is the most irresponsible thing he has seen from a chancellor.Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative former work and pensions secretary and one of the 57 Tory MPs who has signed the letter saying they would vote down George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget (see 8.29am) has told LBC that Osborne’s warning is the most irresponsible thing he has seen from a chancellor.
IDS on LBC: Osborne’s budget claim the most irresponsible thing I’ve seen from a Chancellor https://t.co/XXNMVjAEbE pic.twitter.com/hA3kKJ9x6BIDS on LBC: Osborne’s budget claim the most irresponsible thing I’ve seen from a Chancellor https://t.co/XXNMVjAEbE pic.twitter.com/hA3kKJ9x6B
9.20am BST9.20am BST
09:2009:20
George Osborne's Today interview - SummaryGeorge Osborne's Today interview - Summary
Here are the main points from George Osborne’s Today interview.Here are the main points from George Osborne’s Today interview.
No Conservatives want to raise taxes, least of all me. But equally Conservatives understand, and indeed I suspect many Labour politicians understand, you cannot have chaos in your public finances. You have to deal with the hole that would emerge if we quit the EU.No Conservatives want to raise taxes, least of all me. But equally Conservatives understand, and indeed I suspect many Labour politicians understand, you cannot have chaos in your public finances. You have to deal with the hole that would emerge if we quit the EU.
He also pointed out that Tory MPs voted to raise VAT in 2010.He also pointed out that Tory MPs voted to raise VAT in 2010.
The point is the county does not have a plan if we quit the EU. We would wake up, in just over a week’s time, with no plan for our country, with financial instability, with year’s of uncertainty. And you have to cut your cloth accordingly. The country would not be able to afford the size of the public services we have at the moment and we would have to increase taxes. That is the reality of a country that is not just immediately poorer, because of the uncertainty and the financial markets, but for decades ahead would be doing less trade with its key partners, its key allies, and the rest of the world.The point is the county does not have a plan if we quit the EU. We would wake up, in just over a week’s time, with no plan for our country, with financial instability, with year’s of uncertainty. And you have to cut your cloth accordingly. The country would not be able to afford the size of the public services we have at the moment and we would have to increase taxes. That is the reality of a country that is not just immediately poorer, because of the uncertainty and the financial markets, but for decades ahead would be doing less trade with its key partners, its key allies, and the rest of the world.
Just look at the people voting with their own money. They are not British people. They are investors in Britain. All around the world, sterling is falling, money is coming out of our stock market. You have got big companies like Rolls-Royce warning their workforce. You’ve got big property developers saying people aren’t buying homes. You’ve got small businesses worried about their future. This isn’t warnings just from a Conservative chancellor. This is real money out there in the real world.Just look at the people voting with their own money. They are not British people. They are investors in Britain. All around the world, sterling is falling, money is coming out of our stock market. You have got big companies like Rolls-Royce warning their workforce. You’ve got big property developers saying people aren’t buying homes. You’ve got small businesses worried about their future. This isn’t warnings just from a Conservative chancellor. This is real money out there in the real world.
Brexit might be for the very richest in our country. But it is the people on lower and middle incomes who will be affected, it is the people with job insecurity who will lose their jobs. They are the people who will pay the price for this enormous leap in the dark.Brexit might be for the very richest in our country. But it is the people on lower and middle incomes who will be affected, it is the people with job insecurity who will lose their jobs. They are the people who will pay the price for this enormous leap in the dark.
And by the way, when we walk through that door next Thursday, there is no coming back. We are not going to be rejoining the European Union in years to come when we think we have made a mistake. It will be a one-way exit, and that is going to live with us for decades to come.And by the way, when we walk through that door next Thursday, there is no coming back. We are not going to be rejoining the European Union in years to come when we think we have made a mistake. It will be a one-way exit, and that is going to live with us for decades to come.
The short answer is no, because we have a plan and the plan is to restrict the welfare that people have when they come to this country.The short answer is no, because we have a plan and the plan is to restrict the welfare that people have when they come to this country.
8.37am BST8.37am BST
08:3708:37
Vote Leave accuses Osborne of threatening to 'vandalise the economy'Vote Leave accuses Osborne of threatening to 'vandalise the economy'
And here is Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief executive, on the statement from the 57 Tory MPs.And here is Matthew Elliott, the Vote Leave chief executive, on the statement from the 57 Tory MPs.
George Osborne’s reckless teenage temper tantrum has proved a step too far. Threatening to vandalise the economy has led to his MPs effectively declaring no confidence in him. The prime minister must reflect on the failure of his appalling scare tactics and stop undermining the British economy for his own political interests.George Osborne’s reckless teenage temper tantrum has proved a step too far. Threatening to vandalise the economy has led to his MPs effectively declaring no confidence in him. The prime minister must reflect on the failure of his appalling scare tactics and stop undermining the British economy for his own political interests.
8.29am BST8.29am BST
08:2908:29
57 Tory MPs say they would vote against Osborne's 'absurd' emergency budget plans57 Tory MPs say they would vote against Osborne's 'absurd' emergency budget plans
Here is the statement signed today by 57 Tory MPs saying they would vote against George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget. It has been issued by Vote Leave.Here is the statement signed today by 57 Tory MPs saying they would vote against George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget. It has been issued by Vote Leave.
It says:It says:
We find it incredible that the chancellor could seriously be threatening to renege on so many manifesto pledges. It is absurd to say that if people vote to take back control from the EU that he would want to punish them in this way. We do not believe that he would find it possible to get support in parliament for these proposals to cut the NHS, our police forces and our schools.We find it incredible that the chancellor could seriously be threatening to renege on so many manifesto pledges. It is absurd to say that if people vote to take back control from the EU that he would want to punish them in this way. We do not believe that he would find it possible to get support in parliament for these proposals to cut the NHS, our police forces and our schools.
If the chancellor is serious then we cannot possibly allow this to go ahead. It would be unnecessary, wrong and a rejection of the platform on which we all stood. If he were to proceed with these proposals, the chancellor’s position would become untenable.If the chancellor is serious then we cannot possibly allow this to go ahead. It would be unnecessary, wrong and a rejection of the platform on which we all stood. If he were to proceed with these proposals, the chancellor’s position would become untenable.
This is a blatant attempt to talk down the market and the country. The chancellor risks doing damage to the British economy in his bid to win this political campaign.This is a blatant attempt to talk down the market and the country. The chancellor risks doing damage to the British economy in his bid to win this political campaign.
And here is the list of the 57 MPs. It does not include government ministers backing Vote Leave, or Boris Johnson.And here is the list of the 57 MPs. It does not include government ministers backing Vote Leave, or Boris Johnson.
8.23am BST8.23am BST
08:2308:23
Q: You are trying to scare people. This is a classic case of Project Fear.Q: You are trying to scare people. This is a classic case of Project Fear.
Osborne says look at what investors are doing. Sterling is falling. Money is being taken out of the stock market. This is real money, in the real world.Osborne says look at what investors are doing. Sterling is falling. Money is being taken out of the stock market. This is real money, in the real world.
And that’s it. The interview is over.And that’s it. The interview is over.
I will post a summary shortly.I will post a summary shortly.
8.22am BST8.22am BST
08:2208:22
Q: How will you get EU migration down?Q: How will you get EU migration down?
Osborne says the government is addressing abuse of the welfare system. It will be harder for EU migrants to claim benefits. And the government is doing what it can to promote economic growth in eurozone economies.Osborne says the government is addressing abuse of the welfare system. It will be harder for EU migrants to claim benefits. And the government is doing what it can to promote economic growth in eurozone economies.
Q: But 57 of your own MPs are saying they would vote against your emergency budget?Q: But 57 of your own MPs are saying they would vote against your emergency budget?
Osborne says the Today programme was first broadcast in 1957. He doubts there has been a time since then when a Tory and a Labour chancellor have agreed on what might have to happen.Osborne says the Today programme was first broadcast in 1957. He doubts there has been a time since then when a Tory and a Labour chancellor have agreed on what might have to happen.
Q: But with 57 MPs voting against, you could not pass this budget.Q: But with 57 MPs voting against, you could not pass this budget.
Osborne says he does not want to raise taxes. Alistair Darling agrees taxes would have to go up. Conservatives don’t like raising taxes. But they would have to fix the public finances.Osborne says he does not want to raise taxes. Alistair Darling agrees taxes would have to go up. Conservatives don’t like raising taxes. But they would have to fix the public finances.
Q: You would not be able to get this through the Commons.Q: You would not be able to get this through the Commons.
Osborne says the Conservative government would do what was necessary.Osborne says the Conservative government would do what was necessary.
8.19am BST8.19am BST
08:1908:19
Q: Voters may not believe you. Or they may think this is worth it. Is there anything more the government can offer on freedom of movement?Q: Voters may not believe you. Or they may think this is worth it. Is there anything more the government can offer on freedom of movement?
Osborne says it is all very well for people who are wealthy to say it does not matter if the country is worse off. Osborne says he cares about that. Brexit might be for the very richest in this country. But it is not for others.Osborne says it is all very well for people who are wealthy to say it does not matter if the country is worse off. Osborne says he cares about that. Brexit might be for the very richest in this country. But it is not for others.
He says voting to leave would be a “one-way exit”. Britain would not be able to reapply.He says voting to leave would be a “one-way exit”. Britain would not be able to reapply.
Q: The Guardian is reporting today that Number 10 is thinking of doing more on free movement. Is there anything new you will offer?Q: The Guardian is reporting today that Number 10 is thinking of doing more on free movement. Is there anything new you will offer?
The short answer is no, says Osborne.The short answer is no, says Osborne.
He says the government has plans to bring down immigration.He says the government has plans to bring down immigration.
8.16am BST8.16am BST
08:1608:16
Q: But the economy was weak before the EU referendum campaign started.Q: But the economy was weak before the EU referendum campaign started.
Osborne says the country does face economic challenges. But cutting off your links with your closest trading allies is not the answer to any of those problems.Osborne says the country does face economic challenges. But cutting off your links with your closest trading allies is not the answer to any of those problems.
He says lots of businesses are delaying decisions before the referendum.He says lots of businesses are delaying decisions before the referendum.
And today Leave are saying it would take four years to negotiate withdrawal. That is being optimistic. But during those four years there would be uncertainty.And today Leave are saying it would take four years to negotiate withdrawal. That is being optimistic. But during those four years there would be uncertainty.
Q: If you implemented this emergency budget, you would be breaking your law blocking tax increases.Q: If you implemented this emergency budget, you would be breaking your law blocking tax increases.
Osborne says the government would have to to increase taxes. That is the reality. The country would not just be immediately poorer. It would be poorer for decades ahead.Osborne says the government would have to to increase taxes. That is the reality. The country would not just be immediately poorer. It would be poorer for decades ahead.
If you are trading less, there is less money coming into the exchequer.If you are trading less, there is less money coming into the exchequer.
8.13am BST8.13am BST
08:1308:13
George Osborne's Today interviewGeorge Osborne's Today interview
Andrew SparrowAndrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
George Osborne is being interviewed on the Today programme.George Osborne is being interviewed on the Today programme.
Q: How can you know what would happen if we leave the EU?Q: How can you know what would happen if we leave the EU?
Osborne says we have the weight of expert opinion. There are reports from the IFS and the NIESR.Osborne says we have the weight of expert opinion. There are reports from the IFS and the NIESR.
Q: But this has never happened before.Q: But this has never happened before.
Osborne says, listen to the market. And listen to what Rolls Royce is saying today.Osborne says, listen to the market. And listen to what Rolls Royce is saying today.
7.53am BST7.53am BST
07:5307:53
Sky News is reporting that 57 Conservative MPs say they would vote down a post-Brexit emergency budget of the kind dangled by George Osborne today:Sky News is reporting that 57 Conservative MPs say they would vote down a post-Brexit emergency budget of the kind dangled by George Osborne today:
Some 57 Tory MPs have written a letter saying they will vote down the Brexit budget, which would contain £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts, signalling a significant escalation in the Conservative civil war over the EU.Some 57 Tory MPs have written a letter saying they will vote down the Brexit budget, which would contain £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts, signalling a significant escalation in the Conservative civil war over the EU.
The source of the 57 figure isn’t clear, but a number of Tory MPs, including Liam Fox and Steve Baker, have already spoken out against the chancellor’s announcement.The source of the 57 figure isn’t clear, but a number of Tory MPs, including Liam Fox and Steve Baker, have already spoken out against the chancellor’s announcement.
Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, also told Sky News this morning that he did not accept the £30bn figure cited by Osborne.Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, also told Sky News this morning that he did not accept the £30bn figure cited by Osborne.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.57am BSTat 7.57am BST
7.32am BST7.32am BST
07:3207:32
The British Medical Journal has published an editorial – penned by editor in chief Fiona Godlee and colleagues – on why it thinks doctors should vote remain. The authors acknowledge that this is “an unusual move” for the journal:The British Medical Journal has published an editorial – penned by editor in chief Fiona Godlee and colleagues – on why it thinks doctors should vote remain. The authors acknowledge that this is “an unusual move” for the journal:
Some readers may wonder why the BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case …Some readers may wonder why the BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case …
It has become increasingly obvious that the arguments for remaining in the EU are overwhelming, and that now is not the time for balance.It has become increasingly obvious that the arguments for remaining in the EU are overwhelming, and that now is not the time for balance.
The editorial says the leave campaign claims about the NHS “are simply wrong”:The editorial says the leave campaign claims about the NHS “are simply wrong”:
Its constant claim that the UK sends £350m to the EU every week has been blown out of the water … But perhaps the most laughable untruth is that the NHS would be safer in their hands …Its constant claim that the UK sends £350m to the EU every week has been blown out of the water … But perhaps the most laughable untruth is that the NHS would be safer in their hands …
Those who want the UK to leave are not unlike the antivaccine lobbyists who, having forgotten the evils of measles, mumps and rubella, turn to the alleged harms of the vaccines themselves. Likewise Brexit campaigners have forgotten the evils of virulent nationalism because Europe has succeeded in containing them.Those who want the UK to leave are not unlike the antivaccine lobbyists who, having forgotten the evils of measles, mumps and rubella, turn to the alleged harms of the vaccines themselves. Likewise Brexit campaigners have forgotten the evils of virulent nationalism because Europe has succeeded in containing them.
6.58am BST6.58am BST
06:5806:58
Morning briefingMorning briefing
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage.Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage.
I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big pictureThe big picture
So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence:So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence:
Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it.Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it.
Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p.Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p.
Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”:Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”:
It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy.It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy.
I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion.I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion.
Some commentators weren’t too concerned:Some commentators weren’t too concerned:
Osborne threatening emergency tax rises and cuts post-Brexit. How would he do that from the backbenches?Osborne threatening emergency tax rises and cuts post-Brexit. How would he do that from the backbenches?
The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto.The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto.
But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks:But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks:
For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens.For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens.
As this Guardian report spells out:As this Guardian report spells out:
The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months.The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months.
Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future:Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future:
On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU.On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU.
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week.Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week.
And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom.And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom.
You should also know:You should also know:
Poll positionPoll position
The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%.The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%.
A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%.A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%.
DiaryDiary
Read theseRead these
In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet:In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet:
In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed.In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed.
For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week.For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week.
Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay.Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay.
Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart.Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart.
We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country.We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country.
Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea.Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea.
We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us.We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us.
Baffling claim of the dayBaffling claim of the day
The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers:The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers:
Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK.Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK.
Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports.Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports.
Celebrity endorsement of the dayCelebrity endorsement of the day
I don't want to leave a union that has brought more peace and stability to the region than it has ever known #Remain https://t.co/lsPqxUKe7kI don't want to leave a union that has brought more peace and stability to the region than it has ever known #Remain https://t.co/lsPqxUKe7k
The day in a tweetThe day in a tweet
2. There's warning the country of post-Brexit consequences & then there's suggesting you're not good enough a chancellor to mitigate them2. There's warning the country of post-Brexit consequences & then there's suggesting you're not good enough a chancellor to mitigate them
If today were a novel ...If today were a novel ...
It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”.It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”.
And another thingAnd another thing
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UpdatedUpdated
at 8.41am BSTat 8.41am BST