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Polling shows Kelly O'Dwyer's seat within Greens' grasp after collapse in support Polling shows Kelly O'Dwyer's seat within Greens' grasp after collapse in support
(2 months later)
The Greens could pull off one of the biggest upsets of the 2016 election by winning the seat held by the Turnbull government’s assistant treasurer, Kelly O’Dwyer.The Greens could pull off one of the biggest upsets of the 2016 election by winning the seat held by the Turnbull government’s assistant treasurer, Kelly O’Dwyer.
Private polling shows O’Dwyer’s primary vote has collapsed to 44.1% from 54.37% since the last election, putting the federal seat of Higgins – once held by the former treasurer Peter Costello – within the Greens’ reach.Private polling shows O’Dwyer’s primary vote has collapsed to 44.1% from 54.37% since the last election, putting the federal seat of Higgins – once held by the former treasurer Peter Costello – within the Greens’ reach.
It makes Higgins the only Liberal-held seat in Australia in which the Greens are the major challenger.It makes Higgins the only Liberal-held seat in Australia in which the Greens are the major challenger.
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Greens party directors are now pouring more resources into the seat and the activist group GetUp! will also be distributing material instructing voters to put O’Dwyer last.Greens party directors are now pouring more resources into the seat and the activist group GetUp! will also be distributing material instructing voters to put O’Dwyer last.
The polling of 1,118 people – commissioned by the Greens and run by Lonergan Research – was conducted over 3-4 June. It found O’Dwyer’s primary vote had dropped 10 percentage points since 2013. The Greens candidate, Jason Ball, has increased his party’s primary vote by nearly eight percentage points in that time, to 24.1% from 16.8%.The polling of 1,118 people – commissioned by the Greens and run by Lonergan Research – was conducted over 3-4 June. It found O’Dwyer’s primary vote had dropped 10 percentage points since 2013. The Greens candidate, Jason Ball, has increased his party’s primary vote by nearly eight percentage points in that time, to 24.1% from 16.8%.
It puts the Greens in second position on primary votes, ahead of Labor’s candidate, Carl Katter, who is sitting on 18.2%. It is the first time the Greens have been ahead of Labor in the blue-ribbon seat.It puts the Greens in second position on primary votes, ahead of Labor’s candidate, Carl Katter, who is sitting on 18.2%. It is the first time the Greens have been ahead of Labor in the blue-ribbon seat.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Liberal primary vote is at 53% and the Greens are now sitting on 47% – a gap within the poll’s margin of error.On a two-party preferred basis, the Liberal primary vote is at 53% and the Greens are now sitting on 47% – a gap within the poll’s margin of error.
The Greens say it gives them a genuine chance to win the seat after preferences are distributed, because they’re getting preferences from Labor, the Australian Equality party, the Animal Justice party and Derryn Hinch’s Justice party.The Greens say it gives them a genuine chance to win the seat after preferences are distributed, because they’re getting preferences from Labor, the Australian Equality party, the Animal Justice party and Derryn Hinch’s Justice party.
The Nick Xenophon Team says it is running an open ticket, with no preferences for anyone, but that could change in the next couple of weeks.The Nick Xenophon Team says it is running an open ticket, with no preferences for anyone, but that could change in the next couple of weeks.
The swell of support for the Greens will energise supporters who have been campaigning intensely in Higgins for nearly a year.The swell of support for the Greens will energise supporters who have been campaigning intensely in Higgins for nearly a year.
Larissa Brown, the state director of the Victorian Greens, told Guardian Australia that the party would be putting extra resources into the Higgins campaign now, increasing their door-knocking and phone calls to voters.Larissa Brown, the state director of the Victorian Greens, told Guardian Australia that the party would be putting extra resources into the Higgins campaign now, increasing their door-knocking and phone calls to voters.
“As with Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports, the increased likelihood of winning this seat is attracting volunteers from outside the area to boost the campaign,” Brown said.“As with Batman, Wills and Melbourne Ports, the increased likelihood of winning this seat is attracting volunteers from outside the area to boost the campaign,” Brown said.
O’Dwyer has been contacted for comment.O’Dwyer has been contacted for comment.
The Greens’ chances of winning other inner-city seats in Melbourne and Sydney were dealt a blow over the weekend after Labor struck a deal with the Liberal party to get Liberal preferences ahead of the Greens in key Labor-held seats.The Greens’ chances of winning other inner-city seats in Melbourne and Sydney were dealt a blow over the weekend after Labor struck a deal with the Liberal party to get Liberal preferences ahead of the Greens in key Labor-held seats.
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The Greens have been trying to win the Labor-held seats of Batman and Wills in Melbourne, and party strategists say they stood a chance of winning them with help from Liberal preferences.The Greens have been trying to win the Labor-held seats of Batman and Wills in Melbourne, and party strategists say they stood a chance of winning them with help from Liberal preferences.
However, the Labor-Liberal preference deal made those two campaigns inordinately harder.However, the Labor-Liberal preference deal made those two campaigns inordinately harder.
Party strategists say there is still a chance the Greens could win Batman, because Labor’s gaffe-prone David Feeney, who has held the seat since 2013, has had a horror campaign.Party strategists say there is still a chance the Greens could win Batman, because Labor’s gaffe-prone David Feeney, who has held the seat since 2013, has had a horror campaign.
Brown says the Greens always intended to win Batman “in our own right”.Brown says the Greens always intended to win Batman “in our own right”.
“As Adam Bandt showed at the last election we can win even when Labor conspires with the Liberals on preferences,” Brown said.“As Adam Bandt showed at the last election we can win even when Labor conspires with the Liberals on preferences,” Brown said.
“We are in a good position and as our campaign continues to grow I believe [the Greens candidate for Batman] Alex Bhatal can win.”“We are in a good position and as our campaign continues to grow I believe [the Greens candidate for Batman] Alex Bhatal can win.”
The Greens’ Higgins campaign is being run up by the same team that helped elect Sam Hibbins in Prahran at the 2014 Victorian state election.The Greens’ Higgins campaign is being run up by the same team that helped elect Sam Hibbins in Prahran at the 2014 Victorian state election.