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Europe and the Unthinkable Europe and the Unthinkable
(35 minutes later)
BERLIN — The Soviet Union was a giant on the stage of the 20th century. In this city at the heart of the last century’s drama its presence lingers — in the Soviet War Memorial in the Tiergarten (80,000 Soviet soldiers died in the Battle of Berlin); in the vast memorial and military cemetery in Treptower Park; in the graffiti scrawled by Soviet soldiers on the walls of the Reichstag; in the fragments of the Wall that cut off the Soviet imperium’s captive masses. Yet, a quarter-century ago, the Soviet Union vanished from the map. BERLIN — The Soviet Union was a giant on the stage of the 20th century. In this city at the heart of the last century’s drama its presence lingers — in the Soviet War Memorial in the Tiergarten (80,000 Soviet soldiers died in the Battle of Berlin); in the vast memorial and military cemetery in Treptower Park; in the graffiti scrawled by Soviet soldiers on the walls of the Reichstag; in the fragments of the Wall that cut off the Soviet imperium’s captive masses. Yet, a quarter-century ago, the Soviet Union vanished from the map.
No foreign army conquered it. No massive uprising overran it. No economic implosion swallowed it. One of the world’s two superpowers simply ceased to be. The unthinkable occurred. A vast empire put itself out of existence and turned out the lights.No foreign army conquered it. No massive uprising overran it. No economic implosion swallowed it. One of the world’s two superpowers simply ceased to be. The unthinkable occurred. A vast empire put itself out of existence and turned out the lights.
Berlin, as the author Kati Marton put it, is “the capital of the unimaginable.” Hitler, the vulgar buffoon, was ridiculed but took the world down with him. Almost nobody foresaw the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.Berlin, as the author Kati Marton put it, is “the capital of the unimaginable.” Hitler, the vulgar buffoon, was ridiculed but took the world down with him. Almost nobody foresaw the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
There is no better place to ponder all that cannot possibly happen until it does.There is no better place to ponder all that cannot possibly happen until it does.
There is no better juncture, either. The foundations of the postwar world born from the rubble of Berlin are trembling. The old is dying, the new too inchoate to decipher. The politics of America mystify the world.There is no better juncture, either. The foundations of the postwar world born from the rubble of Berlin are trembling. The old is dying, the new too inchoate to decipher. The politics of America mystify the world.
From Germany’s “zero hour” in 1945 there emerged in due course two institutions — NATO and the European Union — that together ushered Germany from its shame and Europe from its repetitive self-immolation. They cemented the United States as a European power. They fashioned European security and prosperity through unity.From Germany’s “zero hour” in 1945 there emerged in due course two institutions — NATO and the European Union — that together ushered Germany from its shame and Europe from its repetitive self-immolation. They cemented the United States as a European power. They fashioned European security and prosperity through unity.
Now NATO and the E.U. are questioned, even ridiculed. Forces of disintegration are on the march.Now NATO and the E.U. are questioned, even ridiculed. Forces of disintegration are on the march.
In less than two weeks, Britain will vote on whether to quit the Union. The referendum is too close to call. I believe that reason will prevail over derangement — at least one leader of the “Brexit” campaign has contemptibly compared the Union’s designs to Hitler’s — and that Britain will remain where it belongs: in Europe. But the scale of the disaster if Britain votes to leave should not be underestimated. It might mark the beginning of the end of the European Union. A political “bank run,” in the phrase of the political scientist Ivan Krastev, could ensue.In less than two weeks, Britain will vote on whether to quit the Union. The referendum is too close to call. I believe that reason will prevail over derangement — at least one leader of the “Brexit” campaign has contemptibly compared the Union’s designs to Hitler’s — and that Britain will remain where it belongs: in Europe. But the scale of the disaster if Britain votes to leave should not be underestimated. It might mark the beginning of the end of the European Union. A political “bank run,” in the phrase of the political scientist Ivan Krastev, could ensue.
Conditions seem ripe. Europe is increasingly unloved, its miracle too dull to be appreciated. For President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the disintegration of the European Union would be sweet revenge for the fall of the Soviet Union. He will probe. For populist anti-European politicians from the Netherlands to France — friends of Putin all — a British exit would offer open season for fantasies of drum-beating nationalist fragmentation.Conditions seem ripe. Europe is increasingly unloved, its miracle too dull to be appreciated. For President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the disintegration of the European Union would be sweet revenge for the fall of the Soviet Union. He will probe. For populist anti-European politicians from the Netherlands to France — friends of Putin all — a British exit would offer open season for fantasies of drum-beating nationalist fragmentation.
The straitjacket of the euro, maintained through necessity in defiance of logic, may become untenable once unraveling has been legitimized. A British drama will have a Greek sequel. If political dissolution is the order of the day, why should economic disaggregation not follow?The straitjacket of the euro, maintained through necessity in defiance of logic, may become untenable once unraveling has been legitimized. A British drama will have a Greek sequel. If political dissolution is the order of the day, why should economic disaggregation not follow?
The financial turmoil that would accompany a leave vote could spark destabilizing contagion. As refugees continue to flow into Europe, anti-immigrant politicians from Donald Trump in the United States to the National Front leader Marine Le Pen in France would benefit. Trump has called NATO “obsolete” at precisely the moment when it’s needed to defend the Baltic states from Putin. Absent NATO, Putin would already have devoured Estonia for post-Ukraine dessert.The financial turmoil that would accompany a leave vote could spark destabilizing contagion. As refugees continue to flow into Europe, anti-immigrant politicians from Donald Trump in the United States to the National Front leader Marine Le Pen in France would benefit. Trump has called NATO “obsolete” at precisely the moment when it’s needed to defend the Baltic states from Putin. Absent NATO, Putin would already have devoured Estonia for post-Ukraine dessert.
The departure of Britain would magnify German dominance of the European Union, accentuating anti-German sentiment and upsetting the balance between liberal northern European economies and more statist Mediterranean models.The departure of Britain would magnify German dominance of the European Union, accentuating anti-German sentiment and upsetting the balance between liberal northern European economies and more statist Mediterranean models.
A British exit would be devastating, not least for Britain, whose own union of England and Scotland would probably cease to be. Every fiber of pragmatism in the land of continuity par excellence suggests Britain will not throw itself over a cliff. Even here in the capital of the unimaginable I refuse to believe it.A British exit would be devastating, not least for Britain, whose own union of England and Scotland would probably cease to be. Every fiber of pragmatism in the land of continuity par excellence suggests Britain will not throw itself over a cliff. Even here in the capital of the unimaginable I refuse to believe it.
But the unimaginable must be taken seriously if it is to be averted. The Soviet Union proved vulnerable to being unloved. A season of anger is upon the West.But the unimaginable must be taken seriously if it is to be averted. The Soviet Union proved vulnerable to being unloved. A season of anger is upon the West.
Berlin is a monument to the triumph of liberty. The city is also a monument to realpolitik, the kind that made Stalin an ally before the Iron Curtain descended. I listened the other evening at the American Academy in Berlin as Henry Kissinger, the personification of realpolitik, insisted that the “necessity of the coherence of the Atlantic world” had become “even greater.” With him was the American ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, the recipient of this year’s Kissinger Prize — and long the personification of liberal interventionist idealism. In many ways they formed a strange duo. But their togetherness was also a statement: That, until now, America’s postwar European and internationalist commitment has held across the foreign policy spectrum.Berlin is a monument to the triumph of liberty. The city is also a monument to realpolitik, the kind that made Stalin an ally before the Iron Curtain descended. I listened the other evening at the American Academy in Berlin as Henry Kissinger, the personification of realpolitik, insisted that the “necessity of the coherence of the Atlantic world” had become “even greater.” With him was the American ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, the recipient of this year’s Kissinger Prize — and long the personification of liberal interventionist idealism. In many ways they formed a strange duo. But their togetherness was also a statement: That, until now, America’s postwar European and internationalist commitment has held across the foreign policy spectrum.
Realpolitik and idealism meet in the unity of Europe. The unthinkable, on both sides of the Atlantic, must be resisted before it is too late.Realpolitik and idealism meet in the unity of Europe. The unthinkable, on both sides of the Atlantic, must be resisted before it is too late.