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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/may/27/markets-us-growth-figures-janet-yellen-putin-greece-live
The article has changed 19 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
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| US GDP growth revised higher, ahead of Yellen comments– business live | US GDP growth revised higher, ahead of Yellen comments– business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.51pm BST | |
| 15:51 | |
| Competition watchdog to look at Home Retail deal | |
| In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority said it was investigating the £1.4bn takeover of Argos owner Home Retail by supermarket group Sainsbury. | |
| It said it would be looking at whether the deal would hurt competition in the UK, and it would announce its decision by 25 July. | |
| 3.49pm BST | 3.49pm BST |
| 15:49 | 15:49 |
| Back with the US GDP figures, and we could be looking at a weak figure for the second quarter according to Markit: | Back with the US GDP figures, and we could be looking at a weak figure for the second quarter according to Markit: |
| US Q1 GDP revised up from 0.5% to 0.8%, in line w/ PMI. Latter predicts similar weak Q2 rise https://t.co/FmuJFEYWNS pic.twitter.com/oLMW7MnnO7 | US Q1 GDP revised up from 0.5% to 0.8%, in line w/ PMI. Latter predicts similar weak Q2 rise https://t.co/FmuJFEYWNS pic.twitter.com/oLMW7MnnO7 |
| 3.24pm BST | 3.24pm BST |
| 15:24 | 15:24 |
| #Greece's cash-strapped, overstretched security forces have deployed 2,500 police/snipers around #Athens in draconian security op 4 #Putin | #Greece's cash-strapped, overstretched security forces have deployed 2,500 police/snipers around #Athens in draconian security op 4 #Putin |
| 3.14pm BST | 3.14pm BST |
| 15:14 | 15:14 |
| And here’s Russian president Putin arriving in Greece: | And here’s Russian president Putin arriving in Greece: |
| #Russia president Putin arrives in Athens on official visit pic.twitter.com/pCH5tQmz7C /via @d_daso #Greece | #Russia president Putin arrives in Athens on official visit pic.twitter.com/pCH5tQmz7C /via @d_daso #Greece |
| Putin arrives amid heavy security #Greece #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/bPOhhM3YQ5 | Putin arrives amid heavy security #Greece #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/bPOhhM3YQ5 |
| 3.09pm BST | 3.09pm BST |
| 15:09 | 15:09 |
| US consumer confidence lower than expected | US consumer confidence lower than expected |
| American consumers are more confident in May than they were in April, but the latest survey has still come in lower than analysts had been forecasting. | American consumers are more confident in May than they were in April, but the latest survey has still come in lower than analysts had been forecasting. |
| The University of Michigan’s final index of consumer sentiment for May was up from 89 in April to 94.7. But this was lower that the preliminary estimate of 95.8 and below the consensus of 95.4. | The University of Michigan’s final index of consumer sentiment for May was up from 89 in April to 94.7. But this was lower that the preliminary estimate of 95.8 and below the consensus of 95.4. |
| 2.58pm BST | 2.58pm BST |
| 14:58 | 14:58 |
| Meanwhile in Greece: | Meanwhile in Greece: |
| #Putin has touched down in #Athens. State-run TV showing his plane drawing up at red carpet NOW! | #Putin has touched down in #Athens. State-run TV showing his plane drawing up at red carpet NOW! |
| (See our preview earlier) | (See our preview earlier) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.59pm BST | at 2.59pm BST |
| 2.46pm BST | 2.46pm BST |
| 14:46 | 14:46 |
| Wall Street edges higher | Wall Street edges higher |
| Investors are keeping their powder dry ahead of the remarks later from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, with the latest GDP revisions doing little to lift the mood. | Investors are keeping their powder dry ahead of the remarks later from US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, with the latest GDP revisions doing little to lift the mood. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28 points or 0.16% while the S&P 500 opened up 0.12% and Nasdaq just 0.09%. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28 points or 0.16% while the S&P 500 opened up 0.12% and Nasdaq just 0.09%. |
| 2.14pm BST | 2.14pm BST |
| 14:14 | 14:14 |
| And here’s how the US slowdown looks: | And here’s how the US slowdown looks: |
| First-quarter US economic growth revised higher to 0.8 per cent rate, from 0.5 per cent. https://t.co/Ht9PrGJRJ8 pic.twitter.com/f0Bk3cTnBr | First-quarter US economic growth revised higher to 0.8 per cent rate, from 0.5 per cent. https://t.co/Ht9PrGJRJ8 pic.twitter.com/f0Bk3cTnBr |
| 2.02pm BST | 2.02pm BST |
| 14:02 | 14:02 |
| A US interest rate rise in the next two months is unnecessary, given the uncertainty over the country’s economy evidenced by the revised first quarter GDP figures, suggest the CEBR. It said: | A US interest rate rise in the next two months is unnecessary, given the uncertainty over the country’s economy evidenced by the revised first quarter GDP figures, suggest the CEBR. It said: |
| We still expect the remaining three quarters of 2016 to make up for the first quarter slowdown. Despite the seasonal adjustment process, first quarter GDP data are often unreliable and overly gloomy due to seasonal factors such as winter weather. Our view is also supported by consistently strong job creation figures and a rebound in consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment saw an uptick in May due to a strong labour market showing and expectations that both inflation and interest rates would remain low. | We still expect the remaining three quarters of 2016 to make up for the first quarter slowdown. Despite the seasonal adjustment process, first quarter GDP data are often unreliable and overly gloomy due to seasonal factors such as winter weather. Our view is also supported by consistently strong job creation figures and a rebound in consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment saw an uptick in May due to a strong labour market showing and expectations that both inflation and interest rates would remain low. |
| However, the chances that interest rates will remain lower for longer are slimmer now than they were earlier this month...The minutes from the [latest Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, and statements made by Federal Reserve officials since, indicate that some FOMC members believe that the US labour market is at full employment and that this may start putting upward pressure on inflation. | However, the chances that interest rates will remain lower for longer are slimmer now than they were earlier this month...The minutes from the [latest Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, and statements made by Federal Reserve officials since, indicate that some FOMC members believe that the US labour market is at full employment and that this may start putting upward pressure on inflation. |
| Another, less official, consideration may be the US presidential election taking place in November. In the past the Fed has been reluctant to indirectly weigh into political debates and raising interest rates too close to the election would be interpreted as a signal regarding the institution’s opinion of economic prospects. Therefore, while the FOMC’s interest rate decision in June will be data-dependant, it may also be impacted by the realisation that if interest rates do not rise in June or July, they are very likely to remain at 0.5% until at least December. | Another, less official, consideration may be the US presidential election taking place in November. In the past the Fed has been reluctant to indirectly weigh into political debates and raising interest rates too close to the election would be interpreted as a signal regarding the institution’s opinion of economic prospects. Therefore, while the FOMC’s interest rate decision in June will be data-dependant, it may also be impacted by the realisation that if interest rates do not rise in June or July, they are very likely to remain at 0.5% until at least December. |
| Cebr believes that raising rates in June or July is premature and unnecessary. The inflationary environment remains benign and the US economy still faces numerous risks on the global front. Lacklustre growth in export markets is already creating problems for the country’s exporters. Further strengthening the US dollar via monetary policy tightening would make US-made products relatively more expensive and therefore less desirable for foreign buyers. | Cebr believes that raising rates in June or July is premature and unnecessary. The inflationary environment remains benign and the US economy still faces numerous risks on the global front. Lacklustre growth in export markets is already creating problems for the country’s exporters. Further strengthening the US dollar via monetary policy tightening would make US-made products relatively more expensive and therefore less desirable for foreign buyers. |
| 1.48pm BST | 1.48pm BST |
| 13:48 | 13:48 |
| David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco said: | David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco said: |
| The question is how this affects the odds on a Fed rate hike this summer? As far as the markets are concerned, not very much so far although it certainly keeps the prospect alive. | The question is how this affects the odds on a Fed rate hike this summer? As far as the markets are concerned, not very much so far although it certainly keeps the prospect alive. |
| However, it’s unlikely investors will want to take on additional exposure ahead of Janet Yellen’s public appearance this evening and the long holiday weekend. Whether the Fed Chair says anything related to monetary policy is another matter altogether. What should prove far more significant is next week’s raft of manufacturing PMIs along with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll release. | However, it’s unlikely investors will want to take on additional exposure ahead of Janet Yellen’s public appearance this evening and the long holiday weekend. Whether the Fed Chair says anything related to monetary policy is another matter altogether. What should prove far more significant is next week’s raft of manufacturing PMIs along with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll release. |
| Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: | Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: |
| Yesterday’s durable goods orders and home sales data would have put a smile on the face of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but today’s underwhelming first quarter GDP report is unlikely to be as well-received. | Yesterday’s durable goods orders and home sales data would have put a smile on the face of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but today’s underwhelming first quarter GDP report is unlikely to be as well-received. |
| It’s not the most positive start to the financial year for the US and observers will now be keen to see if momentum can pick up in the next quarter. | It’s not the most positive start to the financial year for the US and observers will now be keen to see if momentum can pick up in the next quarter. |
| There’s plenty of talk about an interest rate rise, but Yellen and Co. are likely to wait for the data to support it before pushing the button. | There’s plenty of talk about an interest rate rise, but Yellen and Co. are likely to wait for the data to support it before pushing the button. |
| 1.47pm BST | 1.47pm BST |
| 13:47 | 13:47 |
| Despite the revision, the figures show a slowdown in GDP compared to the fourth quarter which saw a 1.4% increase. | Despite the revision, the figures show a slowdown in GDP compared to the fourth quarter which saw a 1.4% increase. |
| The overall figure was lifted by spending on home building and an increase in inventory investment by businesses. | The overall figure was lifted by spending on home building and an increase in inventory investment by businesses. |
| 1.34pm BST | 1.34pm BST |
| 13:34 | 13:34 |
| US GDP revised higher | US GDP revised higher |
| The US economy grew more than originally thought in the first quarter, but less than some economists had been expecting. | The US economy grew more than originally thought in the first quarter, but less than some economists had been expecting. |
| As various members of the Federal Reserve suggested that a rate hike in June was not off the table, official figures showed a 0.8% rise in GDP in the three months to March. This was higher than the first estimate of 0.5% but below estimates of a rise of 0.9%. | As various members of the Federal Reserve suggested that a rate hike in June was not off the table, official figures showed a 0.8% rise in GDP in the three months to March. This was higher than the first estimate of 0.5% but below estimates of a rise of 0.9%. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.45pm BST | at 1.45pm BST |
| 1.01pm BST | 1.01pm BST |
| 13:01 | 13:01 |
| 12.51pm BST | 12.51pm BST |
| 12:51 | 12:51 |
| This really has been dullest morning in the City for a while. | This really has been dullest morning in the City for a while. |
| Our old friend, the FTSE 100, is refusing to show any enthusiasm and is currently down a meagre 4 points. | Our old friend, the FTSE 100, is refusing to show any enthusiasm and is currently down a meagre 4 points. |
| Investors are hoping that the US growth figures, in around 40 minutes, might cause a stir. Remember, economists expect the annualised growth rate in the last quarter to be revised up to 0.9%, from 0.4% before. | Investors are hoping that the US growth figures, in around 40 minutes, might cause a stir. Remember, economists expect the annualised growth rate in the last quarter to be revised up to 0.9%, from 0.4% before. |
| Conner Campbell of SpreadEx (who gets a bonus mark for keeping awake, frankly), says: | Conner Campbell of SpreadEx (who gets a bonus mark for keeping awake, frankly), says: |
| Friday continued at an alarmingly dull pace this morning, though there is the chance for a bit of excitement from the US open later this afternoon. | Friday continued at an alarmingly dull pace this morning, though there is the chance for a bit of excitement from the US open later this afternoon. |
| The FTSE plodded along flat on the day, with the DAX and CAC effectively following the UK index’s lead. Both regions had nothing in the way of data to offer this Friday, and with Brent Crude threatening to fall below $49 per barrel were lacking the recent commodity-buzz that has helped push the indices to 3 week highs. | The FTSE plodded along flat on the day, with the DAX and CAC effectively following the UK index’s lead. Both regions had nothing in the way of data to offer this Friday, and with Brent Crude threatening to fall below $49 per barrel were lacking the recent commodity-buzz that has helped push the indices to 3 week highs. |
| 12.16pm BST | 12.16pm BST |
| 12:16 | 12:16 |
| Putin's Greek visit could sow discord in EU | Putin's Greek visit could sow discord in EU |
| Greece is prepares to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin, amid tight security and fears that the visit will cause ructions within the EU. | Greece is prepares to welcome Russian president Vladimir Putin, amid tight security and fears that the visit will cause ructions within the EU. |
| Putin’s visit is billed as a way of deepening economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. He’ll be discussing trade, energy and transport issues, and meeting with President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. | Putin’s visit is billed as a way of deepening economic and diplomatic ties between the two countries. He’ll be discussing trade, energy and transport issues, and meeting with President Prokopis Pavlopoulos and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. |
| 2.500 police officers in #Athens - Tight security measures ahead of the visit of #Russian President Vladimir #Putin https://t.co/LIfjqM0Hl4 | 2.500 police officers in #Athens - Tight security measures ahead of the visit of #Russian President Vladimir #Putin https://t.co/LIfjqM0Hl4 |
| Putin has already signalled that Moscow wants closer links with Athens, as the Greek newspaper Kathimerini explains: | Putin has already signalled that Moscow wants closer links with Athens, as the Greek newspaper Kathimerini explains: |
| Moscow is primarily interested in buying state-run railway operator Trainose and a stake in Thessaloniki port, the country’s second largest, as Putin reiterated in a commentary for Kathimerini published on Thursday ahead of the visit. | Moscow is primarily interested in buying state-run railway operator Trainose and a stake in Thessaloniki port, the country’s second largest, as Putin reiterated in a commentary for Kathimerini published on Thursday ahead of the visit. |
| He also said that Russia – Greece’s main gas supplier – is still very much interested in reviving the South Stream gas pipeline project. | He also said that Russia – Greece’s main gas supplier – is still very much interested in reviving the South Stream gas pipeline project. |
| “The issue of our energy resources being carried through southern corridors to the countries of the European Union is still on the agenda,” Putin said | “The issue of our energy resources being carried through southern corridors to the countries of the European Union is still on the agenda,” Putin said |
| But the sight of Russia’s president landing in Athens at a time when the EU is imposing sanctions is causing some concern. | But the sight of Russia’s president landing in Athens at a time when the EU is imposing sanctions is causing some concern. |
| Daragh McDowell, a principal analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Putin hopes to take advantage of anger within Greece about its years of austerity. | Daragh McDowell, a principal analyst for Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Putin hopes to take advantage of anger within Greece about its years of austerity. |
| “The extreme political and economic disruption Greece has experienced, in combination with existing cultural ties, make it a particularly attractive target for these kind of initiatives. | “The extreme political and economic disruption Greece has experienced, in combination with existing cultural ties, make it a particularly attractive target for these kind of initiatives. |
| “Fundamentally these overtures are about sowing division and discord among the EU states in order to undermine the sanctions regime and, over the longer term, the EU as a whole.” | “Fundamentally these overtures are about sowing division and discord among the EU states in order to undermine the sanctions regime and, over the longer term, the EU as a whole.” |
| Vladimir #Putin expected in Athens at 3.30pm local, to sign bilateral agreements. Visits Mt Athos Saturday. More @Monocle24 soon #Greece | Vladimir #Putin expected in Athens at 3.30pm local, to sign bilateral agreements. Visits Mt Athos Saturday. More @Monocle24 soon #Greece |
| Putin due in Athens today, with foreign minister & businessmen. Off to Mt Athos on Saturda https://t.co/ekh8vmTfcd #Greece #Russia | Putin due in Athens today, with foreign minister & businessmen. Off to Mt Athos on Saturda https://t.co/ekh8vmTfcd #Greece #Russia |
| 11.51am BST | 11.51am BST |
| 11:51 | 11:51 |
| Resolution’s Duncan Weldon has now blogged about the IMF paper on the problems with neoliberal economics. | Resolution’s Duncan Weldon has now blogged about the IMF paper on the problems with neoliberal economics. |
| He explains that it’s part of a wider change of thinking at the Fund, away from the “Washington consensus” that dominated thinking before the wheels came off the global economy in 2008. | He explains that it’s part of a wider change of thinking at the Fund, away from the “Washington consensus” that dominated thinking before the wheels came off the global economy in 2008. |
| But the IMF is also pointing out the flaws in the policies implemented over the last eight years. | But the IMF is also pointing out the flaws in the policies implemented over the last eight years. |
| Duncan argues that the criticism against austerity is understandable : | Duncan argues that the criticism against austerity is understandable : |
| Excessive fiscal tightening in countries that still have fiscal space simply hasn’t worked as promised. There are plenty of countries with ample fiscal space that haven’t used it and the world economy has suffered as a result. | Excessive fiscal tightening in countries that still have fiscal space simply hasn’t worked as promised. There are plenty of countries with ample fiscal space that haven’t used it and the world economy has suffered as a result. |
| And the Fund’s comments on capital controls reflect its concerns that ultra-loose monetary policy in the US and Europe has a severe impact on emerging markets. If The Fed won’t care about spillover effects, developing countries must take more precautions. | And the Fund’s comments on capital controls reflect its concerns that ultra-loose monetary policy in the US and Europe has a severe impact on emerging markets. If The Fed won’t care about spillover effects, developing countries must take more precautions. |
| In this respect the Fund; move towards backing capital controls is a consequences of the failure of Western fiscal policy makers to do enough to support growth and the unwillingness of Western monetary policy makers to take into account the global consequences of their actions. | In this respect the Fund; move towards backing capital controls is a consequences of the failure of Western fiscal policy makers to do enough to support growth and the unwillingness of Western monetary policy makers to take into account the global consequences of their actions. |
| A 3 minute read on "that" IMF article & why it's basically driven by advanced economy policymakers messing up: https://t.co/FuzbQk8ZNO | A 3 minute read on "that" IMF article & why it's basically driven by advanced economy policymakers messing up: https://t.co/FuzbQk8ZNO |