Even the pro-Remain newspapers are sceptical about Osborne's 'dossier'
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Version 0 of 1. Does anyone really believe George Osborne’s warning that leaving the European Union would plunge Britain into instant recession, result in 820,000 job losses and force up the price of foreign holidays? Even a leading Remain campaigner, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, thought such “fear-based” predictions were insulting to the intelligence of the electorate. Sturgeon’s statement was headlined in the Guardian, the Times and Metro. It was noticeable that the pro-European Union Daily Mirror appeared sceptical enough to give Boris Johnson’s reaction - “These types of prophecies are not credible” - top billing in its news report. And the Europhile Independent ran a piece that also questioned the claims: “Five problems with the Treasury’s economic analysis of the impact of Brexit”. The pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph lamented that a “proudly impartial civil service” had produced a report that “could in no way be called open-minded.” On its news page, the paper reported that the prime minister was facing threats of cabinet resignations and it quoted Johnson, who accused Cameron and Osborne of “scaremongering”. It was not alone in revealing the depth of the split within the Conservative party. The Daily Mail’s splash, “Knives out for Cameron”, reported that “dozens of Tory MPs are threatening to topple David Cameron” following “the latest Brexit ‘dodgy’ dossier row.” It said unnamed backbenchers were predicting a vote of no-confidence in their leader after the referendum vote. But it also quoted several named critics: former defence secretary Liam Fox, Commons leader Chris Grayling, former chancellors Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont, plus backbencher Bernard Jenkin. It also mentioned the tweet by the Tory MP for Yeovil, Marcus Fysh, who called the Treasury analysis “specious bollocks” (though the paper used asterisks). That tweet was seized on by the Sun, which ran a poster-style front page headlined “Never mind the b*!!**ks”. It said a “furious Tory backlash” over Osborne’s “doomsday dossier on Brexit” had taken the party to “breaking point”, with two ministers threatening to quit. But it was the Telegraph that carried news giving the greatest heart to the Remain campaign by leading its front page with the results of its opinion poll. The ORB survey put Remain on 55% and Leave on 42% among voters who say they will vote. Among all voters, the Remain campaign was favoured by 58%. According to the poll, there has been “a collapse in support for Brexit”, with older voters, Conservative supporters and men moving into the Remain camp. The paper carried an analysis of the poll result by Lynton Crosby, the Tory party strategist, in which he wrote that one of the largest shifts in voting intention has occurred among Tory voters. In March, 60% were intending to vote Leave compared with 34% for Remain. Now the figures have moved to 57% as against 40%. Crosby concluded: “The Remain campaign should view these advancements as affirmation that the focus and messaging of its campaign is working. If Leave is to regain any lost ground, it must start paying attention to the numbers and capitalise on its strengths - its steadfast lead on immigration and the way uncontrolled immigration is seen more widely as a symbol of the country’s loss of control of its sovereignty to Europe, coupled with the enthusiasm of their base.” The Sun’s lengthy leading article preferred to point to the decision by Cameron’s former aide, Steve Hilton, to back Brexit after saying “membership of the EU makes Britain literally ungovernable.” It poured scorn on Osborne: “Either the chancellor’s forecasts are credible, in which case holding the vote is a monstrous act of negligence, or he doesn’t believe them himself and is in the business of whipping up hysteria. No prizes for guessing which we go for.” For the Sun, “Remain’s tactics have been a dark mix of fiction and fear plus a vicious smearing of their opponents.” I think that final sentence would win an award for irony. |