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| EU immigrant influx will make NHS unsustainable by 2030, says Gove | EU immigrant influx will make NHS unsustainable by 2030, says Gove |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Michael Gove has claimed that the NHS will no longer be sustainable if Britain stays in the EU because an immigrant population the size of Scotland could come to the UK by 2030. | Michael Gove has claimed that the NHS will no longer be sustainable if Britain stays in the EU because an immigrant population the size of Scotland could come to the UK by 2030. |
| The justice secretary and leading Brexit campaigner said if the UK voted to remain in the EU on 23 June he would press the government for an emergency cash injection for the NHS, while if it voted to leave he would push for hundreds of millions of pounds currently sent to the EU to be spent on the health service. | |
| Asking the NHS to look after a new group of patients equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable | |
| Gove’s speech coincided with official figures showing the NHS in England has run up a record deficit of £2.45bn – the biggest overspend in its history – as it struggles to cope with a surge in demand for care while suffering a major budget squeeze. | Gove’s speech coincided with official figures showing the NHS in England has run up a record deficit of £2.45bn – the biggest overspend in its history – as it struggles to cope with a surge in demand for care while suffering a major budget squeeze. |
| The Vote Leave immigration forecasts are likely to be strongly challenged by the remain campaign as they presume that five new countries will join the EU within four years. David Cameron has said Turkey is unlikely to join the EU in his lifetime. | The Vote Leave immigration forecasts are likely to be strongly challenged by the remain campaign as they presume that five new countries will join the EU within four years. David Cameron has said Turkey is unlikely to join the EU in his lifetime. |
| However, the justice secretary denied the claims were scaremongering but based on “rigorous” calculations. | However, the justice secretary denied the claims were scaremongering but based on “rigorous” calculations. |
| Speaking in Westminster, Gove said: “Boris Johnson and I will use all our influence with government to give the NHS additional support when we wake up on 24 June. But if we vote to remain, I fear the NHS will only face additional pressures. Even without the accession of any new countries, we can expect a continuing net flow of 172,000 new individuals from the EU to the UK every year. | Speaking in Westminster, Gove said: “Boris Johnson and I will use all our influence with government to give the NHS additional support when we wake up on 24 June. But if we vote to remain, I fear the NHS will only face additional pressures. Even without the accession of any new countries, we can expect a continuing net flow of 172,000 new individuals from the EU to the UK every year. |
| “That adds up to 2.58 million new people arriving here from the EU over the next 15 years. Population growth at that rate could reasonably be expected to increase the pressure on A&E by 28%.” | “That adds up to 2.58 million new people arriving here from the EU over the next 15 years. Population growth at that rate could reasonably be expected to increase the pressure on A&E by 28%.” |
| He said it was right to assume that there would be even more pressure from the accession of five new countries – Turkey, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, and Serbia – which have a combined population of 88 million. | |
| The Vote Leave campaign’s modelling predicts that there could be a cumulative net migration inflow by 2030 of between 3.1 million and 5.2 million. With transitional controls for seven years, the campaign claims net migration would have hit 2.7 million in 2030. | |
| “The idea of asking the NHS to look after a new group of patients equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable. Free movement on that scale will have huge consequences for the NHS,” he said. “To maintain current levels of funding per person, the NHS will need further investment of £4-9bn per year by 2030. It will also need tens of thousands of new doctors and nurses.” | |
| Gove’s public claim that the NHS is at risk on its current course is likely to infuriate David Cameron and George Osborne. The government insists the health service is under control. | |
| Cameron has suspended collective responsibility over the EU referendum but a number of ministers have strayed beyond the issue of Europe to make related attacks on wider government policy. | |
| The strength of Gove’s warning about the NHS is likely to make it even more difficult for Cameron to go back to a unified cabinet after 24 June. | |
| The prime minister is likely to have to resign if he loses the poll, but could still be in danger if there is a narrow vote to remain ; senior Tories could decide they want to replace him with a more Eurosceptic leader who would push for a second referendum. | |
| The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, has already suggested there could be a second poll, while Johnson has suggested the question of the EU may not be permanently settled by the result. | |
| However, Gove said he hoped all sides would accept the result of the referendum: “I do hope that we vote to leave. I also believe that whatever the decision the British people take it should be respected.” |