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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/may/05/uk-service-sector-report-slowdown-china-stock-markets-business-live
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| Donald Trump says he'd probably replace Fed chair Yellen - as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.38pm BST | |
| 17:38 | |
| Markets stablise after recent rout | |
| Some reasonable results from the likes of BT helped stock markets recover some poise after the volatile start to trading in May. There were more signs of weakness in the global economy, including disappointing UK services data and US jobs figures. But oil moved higher as supply concerns outweighed news of higher than expected US crude inventories, giving some support to commodity stocks. | |
| But there was little to really enthuse investors ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers, and the final scores showed: | |
| On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 41 points or 0.24%. | |
| On that note, we’ll close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow for non-farm payroll day. | |
| 5.15pm BST | 5.15pm BST |
| 17:15 | 17:15 |
| More on Greece, where strikes are set for the weekend and a parliamentary vote on reforms is due on Sunday: | More on Greece, where strikes are set for the weekend and a parliamentary vote on reforms is due on Sunday: |
| Greek pension and tax bills all but sure to pass on Sun. But Greece & lenders still at odds over extra contingency measures demanded by IMF. | Greek pension and tax bills all but sure to pass on Sun. But Greece & lenders still at odds over extra contingency measures demanded by IMF. |
| 5.02pm BST | 5.02pm BST |
| 17:02 | 17:02 |
| Global economic pressures which have dissuaded the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again could be waning, according to one of the central bank’s policymakers. | Global economic pressures which have dissuaded the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rates again could be waning, according to one of the central bank’s policymakers. |
| St Louis Fed president James Bullard said in a speech in California: | St Louis Fed president James Bullard said in a speech in California: |
| International influences on the U.S. economy have been widely discussed in global financial markets during the last several years. Those factors appear to be waning during the first half of 2016. | International influences on the U.S. economy have been widely discussed in global financial markets during the last several years. Those factors appear to be waning during the first half of 2016. |
| Financial stress has fallen according to recent readings. The effects of a stronger dollar appear to be waning. | Financial stress has fallen according to recent readings. The effects of a stronger dollar appear to be waning. |
| But he said there was evidence for both the Fed’s view of a gradual pace of rate increases and the market’s belief in only a few increases: | But he said there was evidence for both the Fed’s view of a gradual pace of rate increases and the market’s belief in only a few increases: |
| Evidence from labor markets, inflation readings and global influences suggests the [Federal Reserve’s] median projection may be more nearly correct. | Evidence from labor markets, inflation readings and global influences suggests the [Federal Reserve’s] median projection may be more nearly correct. |
| Evidence from readings on GDP growth and market-based inflation expectations suggests the market view of the path of the policy rate may be more nearly correct. | Evidence from readings on GDP growth and market-based inflation expectations suggests the market view of the path of the policy rate may be more nearly correct. |
| Which does not appear to shut the door to a June hike, following December’s increase. | Which does not appear to shut the door to a June hike, following December’s increase. |
| *BULLARD: THERE IS PLENTY OF NEW DATA RELEASES BEFORE JUNE FOMC | *BULLARD: THERE IS PLENTY OF NEW DATA RELEASES BEFORE JUNE FOMC |
| *BULLARD: FED'S `OPTIONS ARE OPEN AT THIS POINT' | *BULLARD: FED'S `OPTIONS ARE OPEN AT THIS POINT' |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.09pm BST | at 5.09pm BST |
| 4.39pm BST | 4.39pm BST |
| 16:39 | 16:39 |
| Markets are struggling to make any headway ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers. Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, says: | Markets are struggling to make any headway ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers. Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, says: |
| While markets have stabilised after days of losses, there seems little that can revive bullish sentiment as the day heads to its close. Despite an early attempt at a rally, indices remain under pressure, and it looks as if sellers will continue to dominate as the week enters its final session. ...Stocks remain under pressure, and with non-farm payrolls tomorrow the outlook remains resolutely grim. | While markets have stabilised after days of losses, there seems little that can revive bullish sentiment as the day heads to its close. Despite an early attempt at a rally, indices remain under pressure, and it looks as if sellers will continue to dominate as the week enters its final session. ...Stocks remain under pressure, and with non-farm payrolls tomorrow the outlook remains resolutely grim. |
| Further US dollar strength provides the reason for why there is little hope for indices at the present time. After weeks of weakness the impetus to buy the dollar appears too strong to hold back, which would provide a cogent reason for why indices have little ability to move higher. Ahead of non-farm payrolls, the market waits to see if the figure can best the number produced by ADP figures on Wednesday. | Further US dollar strength provides the reason for why there is little hope for indices at the present time. After weeks of weakness the impetus to buy the dollar appears too strong to hold back, which would provide a cogent reason for why indices have little ability to move higher. Ahead of non-farm payrolls, the market waits to see if the figure can best the number produced by ADP figures on Wednesday. |
| 4.17pm BST | 4.17pm BST |
| 16:17 | 16:17 |
| Meanwhile Greece’s unions have called a general strike for Friday and Saturday to protest against the tax and pension reforms due to be debated in parliament over the weekend, Reuters is reporting. | Meanwhile Greece’s unions have called a general strike for Friday and Saturday to protest against the tax and pension reforms due to be debated in parliament over the weekend, Reuters is reporting. |
| 3.29pm BST | 3.29pm BST |
| 15:29 | 15:29 |
| Over in Greece, there has been talk of a possible weekend parliamentary vote on pension reforms, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. The Syriza government is reportedly meeting on Friday: | Over in Greece, there has been talk of a possible weekend parliamentary vote on pension reforms, ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Monday. The Syriza government is reportedly meeting on Friday: |
| SYRIZA's parliamentary group to meet tomrw and discuss upcoming tax & pension legislation, under PM Alexis Tsipras. https://t.co/Z35OutLYTi | SYRIZA's parliamentary group to meet tomrw and discuss upcoming tax & pension legislation, under PM Alexis Tsipras. https://t.co/Z35OutLYTi |
| 3.23pm BST | 3.23pm BST |
| 15:23 | 15:23 |
| A solid US non-farms report on Friday could spark a near term revival in the US dollar, says Rob Carnell at ING Bank: | A solid US non-farms report on Friday could spark a near term revival in the US dollar, says Rob Carnell at ING Bank: |
| April jobs report might uphold the stagflationary trend in US data. If we can take the latest GDP data at face value, then the first quarter of 2016 saw US activity slide to an almost standstill. Yet, the labour market continues to fare well and was the one bright spot amid a general soft patch last month | April jobs report might uphold the stagflationary trend in US data. If we can take the latest GDP data at face value, then the first quarter of 2016 saw US activity slide to an almost standstill. Yet, the labour market continues to fare well and was the one bright spot amid a general soft patch last month |
| Over time, activity and labour data are likely to converge, but right now there is little evidence to untangle how this will play out. Were the April jobs figures to come in on a softer note, then this would endorse the weakness in activity and imply that lagging variables such as employment are also now turning lower. Conversely, if the labour data stays resilient then we will further linger in a state of limbo as either it is the activity data that is the aberration or the lags have yet to kick in. The April jobs report may in fact accentuate the stagflationary trends (soft activity, rising inflation) noted of late: | Over time, activity and labour data are likely to converge, but right now there is little evidence to untangle how this will play out. Were the April jobs figures to come in on a softer note, then this would endorse the weakness in activity and imply that lagging variables such as employment are also now turning lower. Conversely, if the labour data stays resilient then we will further linger in a state of limbo as either it is the activity data that is the aberration or the lags have yet to kick in. The April jobs report may in fact accentuate the stagflationary trends (soft activity, rising inflation) noted of late: |
| Payrolls to come in a tad softer than expectations (ING: +190,000; consensus: +200,000). While some indicators continue to signal a robust hiring backdrop, the softer ADP print suggests that there are some (albeit marginal) downside risks to jobs growth in April. | Payrolls to come in a tad softer than expectations (ING: +190,000; consensus: +200,000). While some indicators continue to signal a robust hiring backdrop, the softer ADP print suggests that there are some (albeit marginal) downside risks to jobs growth in April. |
| Upward bias in the unemployment rate still in place (ING: 5.0%; consensus: 4.9%). The discrepancy between payrolls and the household survey (from which the unemployment rate rate is derived) is still evident, while the very strong labour force growth is unlikely to endure. A slight correction in both components may put some upward pressure on the unemployment rate. | Upward bias in the unemployment rate still in place (ING: 5.0%; consensus: 4.9%). The discrepancy between payrolls and the household survey (from which the unemployment rate rate is derived) is still evident, while the very strong labour force growth is unlikely to endure. A slight correction in both components may put some upward pressure on the unemployment rate. |
| Robust underlying wage pressures should result in decent headline wage growth (ING: 2.4% year on year; consensus 2.4%). We note that the headline AHE measure has been hovering at the lower end of a range of US wage indicators, with the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker continuing to tick higher (on a moving average basis). Thus, we think the odds of a positive wage growth surprise are slightly higher this month. | Robust underlying wage pressures should result in decent headline wage growth (ING: 2.4% year on year; consensus 2.4%). We note that the headline AHE measure has been hovering at the lower end of a range of US wage indicators, with the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker continuing to tick higher (on a moving average basis). Thus, we think the odds of a positive wage growth surprise are slightly higher this month. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.07pm BST | at 4.07pm BST |
| 3.13pm BST | 3.13pm BST |
| 15:13 | 15:13 |
| US crude stocks rise by more than forecast | US crude stocks rise by more than forecast |
| US crude stocks increased by a higher than expected 2.8m barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. | US crude stocks increased by a higher than expected 2.8m barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. |
| Analysts had forecast a rise of 1.7m barrels. Meanwhile gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly by 536,000 compared to expectations of a 144,000 barrel decline. But stockpiles of distillate, which includes diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.3m barrels, more than the 83,000 decline expected. | Analysts had forecast a rise of 1.7m barrels. Meanwhile gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly by 536,000 compared to expectations of a 144,000 barrel decline. But stockpiles of distillate, which includes diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.3m barrels, more than the 83,000 decline expected. |
| Brent is currently up 3% at $46 a barrel despite the higher than expected inventory figures. The price is being supported by the wildfire threatening Canada’s oil sands region, as well as growing tensions in Libya. | Brent is currently up 3% at $46 a barrel despite the higher than expected inventory figures. The price is being supported by the wildfire threatening Canada’s oil sands region, as well as growing tensions in Libya. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.17pm BST | at 3.17pm BST |
| 2.49pm BST | 2.49pm BST |
| 14:49 | 14:49 |
| Shareholders revolt at Ladbrokes and Reckitt | Shareholders revolt at Ladbrokes and Reckitt |
| In the latest pay revolt nearly 24% of shareholders at Reckitt Benckiser voted against the remuneration policy and nearly 18% voted against the remuneration report. | In the latest pay revolt nearly 24% of shareholders at Reckitt Benckiser voted against the remuneration policy and nearly 18% voted against the remuneration report. |
| At Ladbrokes 42% voted against the remuneration report. | At Ladbrokes 42% voted against the remuneration report. |
| 2.29pm BST | 2.29pm BST |
| 14:29 | 14:29 |
| The latest data on US jobs will not give much grounds for optimism for Friday’s non-farm numbers, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco. He said: | The latest data on US jobs will not give much grounds for optimism for Friday’s non-farm numbers, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco. He said: |
| [Weekly jobless claims] have generally been a bright spot over the past few years. They used to come in around the high 300,000s – even topping 400,000 at the end of 2012. But now we are used to seeing claims coming in below 300,000 on a regular basis. | [Weekly jobless claims] have generally been a bright spot over the past few years. They used to come in around the high 300,000s – even topping 400,000 at the end of 2012. But now we are used to seeing claims coming in below 300,000 on a regular basis. |
| But now traders will focus on the main event which is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll release. Early expectations were for an increase of just over 200,000. But the “whisper number” will probably be well below that following yesterday’s grim ADP number. Today’s jobless claims together with a worse than expected Challenger Job-cut number haven’t helped either. | But now traders will focus on the main event which is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll release. Early expectations were for an increase of just over 200,000. But the “whisper number” will probably be well below that following yesterday’s grim ADP number. Today’s jobless claims together with a worse than expected Challenger Job-cut number haven’t helped either. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.36pm BST | at 2.36pm BST |
| 2.17pm BST | 2.17pm BST |
| 14:17 | 14:17 |
| US jobless claims rise | US jobless claims rise |
| More US employment data ahead of Friday’s non-farm numbers. | More US employment data ahead of Friday’s non-farm numbers. |
| After a jump in the number of US workers laid off last month it is probably no surprise that jobless claims rose last week. | After a jump in the number of US workers laid off last month it is probably no surprise that jobless claims rose last week. |
| According to the Labor department the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose 17,000 to 274,000, the largest increase since February of last year. | According to the Labor department the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose 17,000 to 274,000, the largest increase since February of last year. |
| Analysts had expected a figure of around 260,000. | Analysts had expected a figure of around 260,000. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.29pm BST | at 2.29pm BST |
| 1.37pm BST | 1.37pm BST |
| 13:37 | 13:37 |
| Donald Trump also says he’d scrap a swathe of federal regulations which are (he argues) holding back US firms. | Donald Trump also says he’d scrap a swathe of federal regulations which are (he argues) holding back US firms. |
| He told CNBC: | He told CNBC: |
| “We’re lowering taxes very substantially and we’re going to be getting rid of a tremendous amount of regulations.” | “We’re lowering taxes very substantially and we’re going to be getting rid of a tremendous amount of regulations.” |