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What to Watch For in the Indiana Primaries What to Watch For in the Indiana Primaries
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Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are hoping that Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana put to rest any question of whether they will win their parties’ presidential nominations. For Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and the Stop Trump movement, the state, which had seemed winnable as recently as last week, is most likely the last opportunity to deny Mr. Trump the delegates he needs to avoid a contested convention in July.Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are hoping that Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana put to rest any question of whether they will win their parties’ presidential nominations. For Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and the Stop Trump movement, the state, which had seemed winnable as recently as last week, is most likely the last opportunity to deny Mr. Trump the delegates he needs to avoid a contested convention in July.
But Indiana could also provide some insight into whether Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton will be able to win over the constituencies that have been most resistant to their candidacies.But Indiana could also provide some insight into whether Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton will be able to win over the constituencies that have been most resistant to their candidacies.
Here are some of the questions that could be answered by Tuesday’s results in the Hoosier State:Here are some of the questions that could be answered by Tuesday’s results in the Hoosier State:
After a huge sweep of the Northeast last week that exceeded even the most optimistic projections for his delegate haul, Mr. Trump is not very far from the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination. A win in Indiana would make him the overwhelming favorite to clinch it by June 7, the last day of voting for Republicans.After a huge sweep of the Northeast last week that exceeded even the most optimistic projections for his delegate haul, Mr. Trump is not very far from the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination. A win in Indiana would make him the overwhelming favorite to clinch it by June 7, the last day of voting for Republicans.
Mr. Trump already has nearly 1,000 delegates, and even the most pessimistic projections would give him another 120 from West Virginia, New Jersey and three states — Washington, Oregon and New Mexico — that award their delegates proportionally, putting him about 120 delegates away from the nomination. A win in Indiana would cover about half of that number, since the state’s 57 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis both statewide and by congressional district.Mr. Trump already has nearly 1,000 delegates, and even the most pessimistic projections would give him another 120 from West Virginia, New Jersey and three states — Washington, Oregon and New Mexico — that award their delegates proportionally, putting him about 120 delegates away from the nomination. A win in Indiana would cover about half of that number, since the state’s 57 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis both statewide and by congressional district.
Mr. Trump would have plenty of opportunities to cover the rest. A win in California (172 delegates), where he leads in recent polls by more than 20 percentage points, would be more than enough.Mr. Trump would have plenty of opportunities to cover the rest. A win in California (172 delegates), where he leads in recent polls by more than 20 percentage points, would be more than enough.
But Mr. Trump would not even need to win California; taking a third of its congressional districts and snagging a few extra delegates in West Virginia or Washington — let alone a surprise win in Nebraska or Montana — would be enough to win the nomination outright.But Mr. Trump would not even need to win California; taking a third of its congressional districts and snagging a few extra delegates in West Virginia or Washington — let alone a surprise win in Nebraska or Montana — would be enough to win the nomination outright.
The 92 delegates up for grabs in Indiana’s Democratic race will be distributed proportionally and will probably do little to loosen Mrs. Clinton’s tightening grip on her party’s nomination.The 92 delegates up for grabs in Indiana’s Democratic race will be distributed proportionally and will probably do little to loosen Mrs. Clinton’s tightening grip on her party’s nomination.
But now that she is moving closer to becoming the Democratic nominee, what will be telling is whether some of the constituencies that have been resistant to her candidacy begin coming around.But now that she is moving closer to becoming the Democratic nominee, what will be telling is whether some of the constituencies that have been resistant to her candidacy begin coming around.
Among the most significant of the voting blocs that have sided with her opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, are working-class white voters, whom Mrs. Clinton will need to claim in the general election. She began making progress with such voters in the Pennsylvania primary last week, effectively splitting whites without a college degree with Mr. Sanders, and will need to do so again in Indiana to win the state over all.Among the most significant of the voting blocs that have sided with her opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, are working-class white voters, whom Mrs. Clinton will need to claim in the general election. She began making progress with such voters in the Pennsylvania primary last week, effectively splitting whites without a college degree with Mr. Sanders, and will need to do so again in Indiana to win the state over all.
Mrs. Clinton’s performance in Madison, Delaware and Howard Counties will offer insights into whether she is gaining with working-class whites. All three are traditional manufacturing hubs with roots in the auto industry. She won each of them in her 2008 contest with Senator Barack Obama, a race in which she performed far better with the sort of blue-collar whites Mr. Sanders has won over this year.Mrs. Clinton’s performance in Madison, Delaware and Howard Counties will offer insights into whether she is gaining with working-class whites. All three are traditional manufacturing hubs with roots in the auto industry. She won each of them in her 2008 contest with Senator Barack Obama, a race in which she performed far better with the sort of blue-collar whites Mr. Sanders has won over this year.
The Republican race in Indiana could be decided in and around Indianapolis, the state’s capital and population center. Not only do about half of the state’s voters live in the Indianapolis media market, but five of Indiana’s nine congressional districts include or are adjacent to Marion County, which is home to Indianapolis.The Republican race in Indiana could be decided in and around Indianapolis, the state’s capital and population center. Not only do about half of the state’s voters live in the Indianapolis media market, but five of Indiana’s nine congressional districts include or are adjacent to Marion County, which is home to Indianapolis.
With 27 of Indiana’s 57 delegates going to the statewide winner and another 27 allocated across its congressional districts, a strong performance around the capital is crucial.With 27 of Indiana’s 57 delegates going to the statewide winner and another 27 allocated across its congressional districts, a strong performance around the capital is crucial.
But the challenge for Mr. Cruz is that while many of the Republicans in this heavily suburban and relatively affluent area are uneasy with Mr. Trump, they may be more inclined to support Gov. John Kasich of Ohio or stay home than back a hard-line conservative.But the challenge for Mr. Cruz is that while many of the Republicans in this heavily suburban and relatively affluent area are uneasy with Mr. Trump, they may be more inclined to support Gov. John Kasich of Ohio or stay home than back a hard-line conservative.
While Mr. Cruz and Mr. Kasich forged a deal in which Mr. Kasich agreed to cede Indiana to Mr. Cruz, a new poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal indicates that Mr. Kasich is still receiving 13 percent of the vote despite not campaigning actively in the state. And even if Mr. Kasich were not in the race and his support were reallocated by the second-choice preference of his voters, Mr. Trump would still lead Mr. Cruz by 11 points, according to the survey.While Mr. Cruz and Mr. Kasich forged a deal in which Mr. Kasich agreed to cede Indiana to Mr. Cruz, a new poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal indicates that Mr. Kasich is still receiving 13 percent of the vote despite not campaigning actively in the state. And even if Mr. Kasich were not in the race and his support were reallocated by the second-choice preference of his voters, Mr. Trump would still lead Mr. Cruz by 11 points, according to the survey.
Compounding Mr. Cruz’s challenge, the parts of northern Indiana where he was expected to do well are more competitive than his campaign anticipated. And southern Indiana, a heavily blue-collar region full of Reagan Democrats, could turn into a rout for Mr. Trump.Compounding Mr. Cruz’s challenge, the parts of northern Indiana where he was expected to do well are more competitive than his campaign anticipated. And southern Indiana, a heavily blue-collar region full of Reagan Democrats, could turn into a rout for Mr. Trump.
A victory for Mr. Trump in Indiana would not just be important for the delegates. It could also be telling because Indiana was supposed to be a good state for Mr. Cruz, who has fared well in primaries dominated by reliably conservative and evangelical voters.A victory for Mr. Trump in Indiana would not just be important for the delegates. It could also be telling because Indiana was supposed to be a good state for Mr. Cruz, who has fared well in primaries dominated by reliably conservative and evangelical voters.
Mr. Trump has won only two red states by more than five percentage points since Mr. Cruz emerged as his principal conservative rival after Super Tuesday. Mr. Trump only barely defeated Mr. Cruz in nearby Kentucky, Missouri and downstate Illinois, and that was before Senator Marco Rubio left the race. Mr. Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin seemed to confirm that the Rubio vote was safely in his camp, which boded well for him in Indiana.Mr. Trump has won only two red states by more than five percentage points since Mr. Cruz emerged as his principal conservative rival after Super Tuesday. Mr. Trump only barely defeated Mr. Cruz in nearby Kentucky, Missouri and downstate Illinois, and that was before Senator Marco Rubio left the race. Mr. Cruz’s big win in Wisconsin seemed to confirm that the Rubio vote was safely in his camp, which boded well for him in Indiana.
But Mr. Cruz’s expected advantage has not materialized. Polls have shown Mr. Trump ahead by as much as 15 points, pushing Mr. Cruz first to pursue his desperate alliance with Mr. Kasich and then to announce that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate.But Mr. Cruz’s expected advantage has not materialized. Polls have shown Mr. Trump ahead by as much as 15 points, pushing Mr. Cruz first to pursue his desperate alliance with Mr. Kasich and then to announce that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate.
A victory for Mr. Trump in Indiana would suggest that he has broken through his “ceiling” in conservative states and that Mr. Cruz has, in fact, lost ground over the last month. And it would raise serious questions about whether Mr. Cruz can still beat Mr. Trump in other states where Mr. Cruz was thought to be favored, like Nebraska, Washington, Montana and South Dakota.A victory for Mr. Trump in Indiana would suggest that he has broken through his “ceiling” in conservative states and that Mr. Cruz has, in fact, lost ground over the last month. And it would raise serious questions about whether Mr. Cruz can still beat Mr. Trump in other states where Mr. Cruz was thought to be favored, like Nebraska, Washington, Montana and South Dakota.
A Cruz upset, on the other hand, would suggest that his weakness in the Northeast was a regional phenomenon and that he might still have the strength needed to stop Mr. Trump in California and elsewhere in the West.A Cruz upset, on the other hand, would suggest that his weakness in the Northeast was a regional phenomenon and that he might still have the strength needed to stop Mr. Trump in California and elsewhere in the West.