Turbulent Politics in Baghdad

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/turbulent-politics-in-baghdad.html

Version 0 of 1.

The brief takeover of the Iraqi Parliament building by supporters of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr over the weekend was rich in symbolism. On Saturday, the demonstrators penetrated the heavily guarded Green Zone, toppling cement walls that have long barricaded the country’s ruling elite from the people it is supposed to serve. They ransacked lawmakers’ offices, waving Iraqi flags as they demanded that the country’s political patronage networks be replaced by a new administration of technocrats. On Sunday, heeding Mr. Sadr’s call, they retreated.

It’s impossible to predict what this remarkable show of force will lead to, given the volatility of Iraqi politics. But it made clear that Mr. Sadr — a former militia leader who has refashioned himself as an anti-corruption crusader — remains a force to be reckoned with.

Depending on his next moves, Mr. Sadr could either deepen the country’s political polarization or advance Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s fledgling efforts to form a functional government. The latter possibility, admittedly very slight, is the only one that would give Iraq a fighting chance of recapturing territory from the Islamic State and confronting an economic crisis brought about by the low price of oil.

It’s hard not to see Mr. Sadr’s return to the forefront of Iraqi politics as a threat. For much of the American occupation of Iraq, Mr. Sadr relied on violence to advance his goals. His militia, the Mahdi Army, fired rockets into the Green Zone to destabilize the American-backed government and killed scores of American troops. His fighters played a leading role in the brutal sectarian war that raged between 2005 and 2006. Mr. Sadr was equally disruptive in the political arena. His bloc in Parliament played a kingmaker role in power struggles — most notably by backing Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s bid to remain prime minister in 2010. And the ministries run by his allies exemplified the cronyism he now decries.

In 2014, Mr. Sadr announced that he would withdraw from politics, and he has since cast himself as a religious leader who champions the poor, regardless of sect. A year ago, he endorsed Mr. Abadi’s plan to reconfigure Baghdad’s ethnic quota-based government system by appointing competent ministers, slashing bloated payrolls and battling corruption.

These changes are desperately needed. Iraq is dipping into its foreign reserves to make up for a $3 billion monthly budget shortfall. Two of the country’s main cities, Falluja, in the west, and Mosul, in the north, are controlled by Islamic State militants. Last week, Mr. Abadi, who leads the Shiite-dominated government, managed to get five new ministers confirmed by Parliament, over the protests of several politicians who fear losing their clout if the status quo is upended. The refusal to hold new hearings for other nominees to government posts last week prompted the Green Zone protests.

As he directed his followers to leave the Green Zone on Sunday, Mr. Sadr asked them to refrain from violence and to chant nationalist slogans. In a statement, he warned that his followers would call for new elections if lawmakers continued to get in the way of political reform. It is encouraging that the Sadrists have so far largely refrained from violence and that their rallies are not sectarian. If Mr. Sadr keeps it this way, the street protests might give Mr. Abadi the political cover to force Parliament to make the reforms the government needs.