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George Osborne: UK would be 'permanently poorer' outside EU George Osborne: UK would be 'permanently poorer' outside EU
(35 minutes later)
The UK would be "permanently poorer" outside the European Union, Chancellor George Osborne has warned ahead of the in-out vote on membership on 23 June.The UK would be "permanently poorer" outside the European Union, Chancellor George Osborne has warned ahead of the in-out vote on membership on 23 June.
A Treasury analysis suggests an EU exit could see the UK economy 6% smaller than it would otherwise be by 2030.A Treasury analysis suggests an EU exit could see the UK economy 6% smaller than it would otherwise be by 2030.
Mr Osborne said the smaller size of the economy projected in the report was the equivalent of £4,300 per household.Mr Osborne said the smaller size of the economy projected in the report was the equivalent of £4,300 per household.
Leave campaigners called the claims "absurd" and "worthless" given the Treasury's past forecasting record.Leave campaigners called the claims "absurd" and "worthless" given the Treasury's past forecasting record.
Conservative MP John Redwood, who is campaigning for an Out vote, said: "This is a Treasury which failed to forecast the huge damage membership of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism inflicted on us and they were always very keen to join us and it gave us a huge recession. They failed to forecast the damage to the UK of the Eurozone crisis of 2011."Conservative MP John Redwood, who is campaigning for an Out vote, said: "This is a Treasury which failed to forecast the huge damage membership of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism inflicted on us and they were always very keen to join us and it gave us a huge recession. They failed to forecast the damage to the UK of the Eurozone crisis of 2011."
'Economic shock''Economic shock'
But Mr Osborne defended the report's findings on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, saying: "The conclusions could not be clearer. Britain would be permanently poorer if we left the EU to the tune of £4,300 for every household in the country. That's a fact everyone should think about "But Mr Osborne defended the report's findings on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, saying: "The conclusions could not be clearer. Britain would be permanently poorer if we left the EU to the tune of £4,300 for every household in the country. That's a fact everyone should think about "
The chancellor said "it would be the poorest" who would be most affected by an EU exit, citing people whose jobs "depend" on the car plants and steel making factories.The chancellor said "it would be the poorest" who would be most affected by an EU exit, citing people whose jobs "depend" on the car plants and steel making factories.
"They are the people whose incomes would go down, whose house prices would fall, whose job prospects would weaken, they are the people who always suffer when the country takes an economic wrong turn," he said."They are the people whose incomes would go down, whose house prices would fall, whose job prospects would weaken, they are the people who always suffer when the country takes an economic wrong turn," he said.
He added: "If you look at the evidence and what the rest of the world is telling Britain and they are very, very clear: we would be permanently poorer outside the EU, let alone the short-term economic shock."He added: "If you look at the evidence and what the rest of the world is telling Britain and they are very, very clear: we would be permanently poorer outside the EU, let alone the short-term economic shock."
The 200-page report, written by government economists, looks at three scenarios in the event of a vote to leave the EU on 23 June, according to BBC business editor Kamal Ahmed.The 200-page report, written by government economists, looks at three scenarios in the event of a vote to leave the EU on 23 June, according to BBC business editor Kamal Ahmed.
Each scenario had a strong negative impact on the economy, according to the report, sources have said - but the forecasted 6% shock to national income is based on the Canadian trade model with the EU.Each scenario had a strong negative impact on the economy, according to the report, sources have said - but the forecasted 6% shock to national income is based on the Canadian trade model with the EU.
BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said Mr Osborne was expected to warn that public services would be £36bn worse off by 2030 outside the EU.
Leave campaigners, including London mayor Boris Johnson, have said there would be no downsides to leaving, and suggested the UK could ape Canada's trade arrangement with the EU.Leave campaigners, including London mayor Boris Johnson, have said there would be no downsides to leaving, and suggested the UK could ape Canada's trade arrangement with the EU.
'Usual suspects''Usual suspects'
But Mr Osborne said it was "economically illiterate" to say the UK could retain "all the benefits" of EU membership and "none of the obligations or costs".But Mr Osborne said it was "economically illiterate" to say the UK could retain "all the benefits" of EU membership and "none of the obligations or costs".
Any trade arrangement would lead to less access to the EU single market unless Britain was prepared to pay into the EU budget and accept the free movement of people, he said.Any trade arrangement would lead to less access to the EU single market unless Britain was prepared to pay into the EU budget and accept the free movement of people, he said.
In his Daily Telegraph column, Mr Johnson said the referendum was on a "knife edge" and accused the "usual suspects" of trying to convince Britons to accept "the accelerating loss of democratic self-government as the price of economic prosperity".In his Daily Telegraph column, Mr Johnson said the referendum was on a "knife edge" and accused the "usual suspects" of trying to convince Britons to accept "the accelerating loss of democratic self-government as the price of economic prosperity".
"We have heard from the IMF (who got the Asian crisis completely wrong), as well as the banks and the CBI, all of whom were wrong about the euro."We have heard from the IMF (who got the Asian crisis completely wrong), as well as the banks and the CBI, all of whom were wrong about the euro.
"Davos man - the kind of people whose club class air tickets are paid by the taxpayer, all the lobbyists and corporate affairs directors of the big companies: they are all increasingly nervous that they have been rumbled, that people can see the emperor has no clothes and that Britain could have a glorious future outside the EU," he said."Davos man - the kind of people whose club class air tickets are paid by the taxpayer, all the lobbyists and corporate affairs directors of the big companies: they are all increasingly nervous that they have been rumbled, that people can see the emperor has no clothes and that Britain could have a glorious future outside the EU," he said.
Andrew Mackenzie, head of mining giant BHP Billiton, said there would be a decade of uncertainty if the UK voted to leave the EU, and that the country would be reduced to "rule takers".
"On trade, the EU has negotiated broadly effective deals for Europe and the UK. Restoring these agreements after Brexit would take years, perhaps a decade, of negotiation," he said.