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| German State Elections Point to Vulnerability for Angela Merkel | German State Elections Point to Vulnerability for Angela Merkel |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| BERLIN — The results of German state elections, in which an insurgent far-right party garnered up to 25 percent of the vote, have signaled a rare turn toward political vulnerability for Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as potential instability for her country and perhaps paralysis for Europe as a whole. | |
| Whether Europeans like it or not, they have come to count on Ms. Merkel’s leadership through successive crises in the past decade. Ms. Merkel’s Germany has seemed impervious to the protest votes and economic woes engulfing much of the Continent. | Whether Europeans like it or not, they have come to count on Ms. Merkel’s leadership through successive crises in the past decade. Ms. Merkel’s Germany has seemed impervious to the protest votes and economic woes engulfing much of the Continent. |
| But the elections in two western states and an eastern one on Sunday amounted to a stark warning that Germans are not happy with the prospect of integrating a million migrants and refugees from the wars in Iraq and Syria. | But the elections in two western states and an eastern one on Sunday amounted to a stark warning that Germans are not happy with the prospect of integrating a million migrants and refugees from the wars in Iraq and Syria. |
| The outcome is likely to further complicate efforts to solve a migration crisis in which coordination among Europeans is already so haphazard that Ms. Merkel has looked to Turkey to solve the problem for them. | The outcome is likely to further complicate efforts to solve a migration crisis in which coordination among Europeans is already so haphazard that Ms. Merkel has looked to Turkey to solve the problem for them. |
| But Turkey, too, has been consumed by instability and violence amid growing fears of spillover from the civil war in Syria, raising questions about the country’s ability to be a reliable partner in stemming the flow of migrants from its shores. | But Turkey, too, has been consumed by instability and violence amid growing fears of spillover from the civil war in Syria, raising questions about the country’s ability to be a reliable partner in stemming the flow of migrants from its shores. |
| In addition, Turkey’s human rights policies contravene principles that Ms. Merkel upholds elsewhere, unsettling voters and some other European governments. | In addition, Turkey’s human rights policies contravene principles that Ms. Merkel upholds elsewhere, unsettling voters and some other European governments. |
| To the surprise of virtually no one, however, Ms. Merkel on Monday insisted that she would not change course in the wake of returns that gave the far-right Alternative for Germany party its best showing ever. | |
| While conceding a “difficult day” on Sunday, the chancellor said she would continue admitting and integrating refugees, despite rising demands — even, or especially, from her now-wounded conservative bloc — to set limits on the numbers arriving. | While conceding a “difficult day” on Sunday, the chancellor said she would continue admitting and integrating refugees, despite rising demands — even, or especially, from her now-wounded conservative bloc — to set limits on the numbers arriving. |
| Ms. Merkel has won foreign plaudits for her courage and constancy. But her stance has been criticized in a Europe wary of the migrants, and it has left Ms. Merkel increasingly isolated at home, with even rockier days appearing ahead. | Ms. Merkel has won foreign plaudits for her courage and constancy. But her stance has been criticized in a Europe wary of the migrants, and it has left Ms. Merkel increasingly isolated at home, with even rockier days appearing ahead. |
| But the chancellor is keenly aware that her country is always closely watched because of its troubled history, and that the stakes for Germany are larger than her own political fortunes. | But the chancellor is keenly aware that her country is always closely watched because of its troubled history, and that the stakes for Germany are larger than her own political fortunes. |
| “The spell of our past means that one simply looks much more intensely at what Germany is up to,” said Jürgen W. Falter, a politics professor at Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz. | “The spell of our past means that one simply looks much more intensely at what Germany is up to,” said Jürgen W. Falter, a politics professor at Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz. |
| Perhaps, he added, Alternative for Germany could eventually veer to right-wing extremism. “And then, if Germany really became unstable, that would be rather destructive” in Europe and beyond, he said. | Perhaps, he added, Alternative for Germany could eventually veer to right-wing extremism. “And then, if Germany really became unstable, that would be rather destructive” in Europe and beyond, he said. |
| Professor Falter stressed that there were as yet no such indications. The new party may prove a flash in the pan, as other upstart parties here have been in the past. Or it may settle at the hard right of established politics, or turn into a populist movement like the National Front in France. | Professor Falter stressed that there were as yet no such indications. The new party may prove a flash in the pan, as other upstart parties here have been in the past. Or it may settle at the hard right of established politics, or turn into a populist movement like the National Front in France. |
| Ms. Merkel, in power since 2005, faces the biggest test of her political career. If she weakens and eventually stumbles, she would follow at least two other German chancellors — Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, her predecessor — in risking her job over a principle. | Ms. Merkel, in power since 2005, faces the biggest test of her political career. If she weakens and eventually stumbles, she would follow at least two other German chancellors — Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, her predecessor — in risking her job over a principle. |
| She is far from such a danger right now. But her Bavarian partner, Horst Seehofer, has complained about her course for months and on Monday said the country and its conservative bloc “can’t go on like this.” | She is far from such a danger right now. But her Bavarian partner, Horst Seehofer, has complained about her course for months and on Monday said the country and its conservative bloc “can’t go on like this.” |
| Given the Nazi past, it has been a mantra here that the center-right could not allow a party to flourish further right. | Given the Nazi past, it has been a mantra here that the center-right could not allow a party to flourish further right. |
| But by appearing more in step with other Europeans unsettled by globalization and change, the Alternative for Germany, which started three years ago as a protest movement against the euro currency, may have made it harder for other German parties to brand its followers neo-Nazis. | But by appearing more in step with other Europeans unsettled by globalization and change, the Alternative for Germany, which started three years ago as a protest movement against the euro currency, may have made it harder for other German parties to brand its followers neo-Nazis. |
| The new party won “not just because of the vacuum on the right, but because they attracted voters who were anti-Establishment, anti-liberalization, anti-European, anti-everything that has come to be regarded as the norm,” said Sylke Tempel of the German Council on Foreign Relations. | The new party won “not just because of the vacuum on the right, but because they attracted voters who were anti-Establishment, anti-liberalization, anti-European, anti-everything that has come to be regarded as the norm,” said Sylke Tempel of the German Council on Foreign Relations. |
| Postelection analysis showed that her party failed to address the fears stirred by the refugees, Ms. Merkel said. “It also became clear,” she said, “that we have a world which is changing, and that many people have the impression that this world is in great disorder.” | Postelection analysis showed that her party failed to address the fears stirred by the refugees, Ms. Merkel said. “It also became clear,” she said, “that we have a world which is changing, and that many people have the impression that this world is in great disorder.” |
| For the first time, the chancellor and her colleagues acknowledged that the hundreds of reported sexual assaults and robberies by Arab and North African men on young women in Cologne on New Year’s Eve were a turning point, and had influenced her party’s poor showing on Sunday. | For the first time, the chancellor and her colleagues acknowledged that the hundreds of reported sexual assaults and robberies by Arab and North African men on young women in Cologne on New Year’s Eve were a turning point, and had influenced her party’s poor showing on Sunday. |
| Reiner Haseloff, the only member of Ms. Merkel’s party, the Christian Democrats, to win a state election on Sunday, noted that the Alternative for Germany party had been in the doldrums at around 5 percent in the fall. | |
| “The real leap happened shortly after New Year’s, against the backdrop of the events in Cologne, Stuttgart and Hamburg,” he said, naming two other cities where assaults were reported, although on a far lesser scale. | “The real leap happened shortly after New Year’s, against the backdrop of the events in Cologne, Stuttgart and Hamburg,” he said, naming two other cities where assaults were reported, although on a far lesser scale. |
| “That was where we saw a high double-digit leap for the Alternative, and I noticed that internal security in Germany became the decisive question in refugee themes,” he said. | “That was where we saw a high double-digit leap for the Alternative, and I noticed that internal security in Germany became the decisive question in refugee themes,” he said. |
| Whether even a reduced influx of refugees will help Ms. Merkel is not clear. In any case, a lasting solution is still lacking, even Ms. Merkel concedes, at least as it pertains to Europe. | Whether even a reduced influx of refugees will help Ms. Merkel is not clear. In any case, a lasting solution is still lacking, even Ms. Merkel concedes, at least as it pertains to Europe. |
| The refugee crisis will now be with Germans for years, and the skill in handling it will determine whether the country retains its position as Europe’s bulwark. | The refugee crisis will now be with Germans for years, and the skill in handling it will determine whether the country retains its position as Europe’s bulwark. |
| “Cologne was a killer,” Ms. Tempel said. “Because Cologne is not just about giving shelter. It is about integration, and therefore a much, much deeper matter.” | “Cologne was a killer,” Ms. Tempel said. “Because Cologne is not just about giving shelter. It is about integration, and therefore a much, much deeper matter.” |
| The fact that North African men who had arrived in Germany years ago — not in the current wave of migration — were blamed for the assaults gave people the feeling that the government had been lax about security, allowing these men to “hang around unnoticed for years,” engaging in petty or more serious crime, Ms. Tempel said. | The fact that North African men who had arrived in Germany years ago — not in the current wave of migration — were blamed for the assaults gave people the feeling that the government had been lax about security, allowing these men to “hang around unnoticed for years,” engaging in petty or more serious crime, Ms. Tempel said. |
| Most Germans she knows are still glad to help refugees, Ms. Tempel said. But after Cologne, she added, they are more likely to conclude that, no matter what, “these people don’t integrate.” | Most Germans she knows are still glad to help refugees, Ms. Tempel said. But after Cologne, she added, they are more likely to conclude that, no matter what, “these people don’t integrate.” |