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| Tuesday's primaries offer glimmer of hope for Sanders as Trump barrels on | Tuesday's primaries offer glimmer of hope for Sanders as Trump barrels on |
| (6 months later) | |
| Broadly speaking, the 2016 US presidential election hasn’t changed from the way it looked 24 hours ago. After votes have been counted in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are still leading in the Republican and Democratic races to the White House. | Broadly speaking, the 2016 US presidential election hasn’t changed from the way it looked 24 hours ago. After votes have been counted in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are still leading in the Republican and Democratic races to the White House. |
| But details matter here, and the results of last night’s votes have shifted the viability of other contenders: leftwing firebrand Bernie Sanders hasn’t burned up yet, but Texas senator Ted Cruz may find his path to the nomination steeper than it seemed yesterday. | But details matter here, and the results of last night’s votes have shifted the viability of other contenders: leftwing firebrand Bernie Sanders hasn’t burned up yet, but Texas senator Ted Cruz may find his path to the nomination steeper than it seemed yesterday. |
| The Democratic race | The Democratic race |
| Sanders’ victory over Clinton in Michigan represented a huge polling upset. Every single poll since June put the former secretary of state ahead of the Vermont senator in the state; an average of the last three polls had Clinton leading by 21 percentage points. | Sanders’ victory over Clinton in Michigan represented a huge polling upset. Every single poll since June put the former secretary of state ahead of the Vermont senator in the state; an average of the last three polls had Clinton leading by 21 percentage points. |
| But right from the start of the night the race was incredibly close, with the candidates separated by just a couple of points. While other states declared their winners with less than a quarter of the votes counted, in Michigan, Sanders was not announced as the Democratic victor until over 85% of votes had been collected. | But right from the start of the night the race was incredibly close, with the candidates separated by just a couple of points. While other states declared their winners with less than a quarter of the votes counted, in Michigan, Sanders was not announced as the Democratic victor until over 85% of votes had been collected. |
| It is true that for Democrats, delegates are dished out in proportion to votes, so Sanders’s 49.9% vote share only earned him 65 delegates compared to Hillary’s 58, but the Michigan results were crucial for other reasons. After he was repeatedly slated to have little chance of winning, the Michigan victory gives Sanders the chance to claim that such criticisms are misplaced and that a vote for the Bern in the upcoming contests is not a wasted one. | It is true that for Democrats, delegates are dished out in proportion to votes, so Sanders’s 49.9% vote share only earned him 65 delegates compared to Hillary’s 58, but the Michigan results were crucial for other reasons. After he was repeatedly slated to have little chance of winning, the Michigan victory gives Sanders the chance to claim that such criticisms are misplaced and that a vote for the Bern in the upcoming contests is not a wasted one. |
| Michigan’s results also suggest that Sanders’s “black voter problem” might not be insurmountable. Exit polling suggests that 30% of black Democratic voters in the state opted for Sanders. That’s a clear contrast to exit poll findings on Sanders’ popularity – or lack of it – among black Americans in other states that have voted this year. | Michigan’s results also suggest that Sanders’s “black voter problem” might not be insurmountable. Exit polling suggests that 30% of black Democratic voters in the state opted for Sanders. That’s a clear contrast to exit poll findings on Sanders’ popularity – or lack of it – among black Americans in other states that have voted this year. |
| If Sanders can win over non-white voters in the primaries to come, his delegate numbers could dramatically change. Currently, Sanders has 571 of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination, while Clinton has 759; including the party luminaries known as superdelegates, she has 1,220 (those delegates can switch sides but are unlikely to do so). | If Sanders can win over non-white voters in the primaries to come, his delegate numbers could dramatically change. Currently, Sanders has 571 of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination, while Clinton has 759; including the party luminaries known as superdelegates, she has 1,220 (those delegates can switch sides but are unlikely to do so). |
| Clinton’s base is made up of older voters who are more likely to describe themselves as moderate than liberal. While Sanders has a chance of winning over black voters in some parts of the country, he’ll face a tougher task convincing those Clinton supporters to reconsider their options. | Clinton’s base is made up of older voters who are more likely to describe themselves as moderate than liberal. While Sanders has a chance of winning over black voters in some parts of the country, he’ll face a tougher task convincing those Clinton supporters to reconsider their options. |
| The Michigan Democratic result might well have limited long-term effects. The deprivation and unemployment in some parts of Michigan (which has been a Democratic blue state in the past six presidential elections) mean that this is a part of the country that is particularly receptive to Sanders’ messages on economic justice. However, if polls prove wrong in other parts of the country with a similar profile to Michigan (in particular Ohio and Illinois, which vote next Tuesday and together offer 341 delegates), then Sanders could have a real chance of challenging Clinton. | The Michigan Democratic result might well have limited long-term effects. The deprivation and unemployment in some parts of Michigan (which has been a Democratic blue state in the past six presidential elections) mean that this is a part of the country that is particularly receptive to Sanders’ messages on economic justice. However, if polls prove wrong in other parts of the country with a similar profile to Michigan (in particular Ohio and Illinois, which vote next Tuesday and together offer 341 delegates), then Sanders could have a real chance of challenging Clinton. |
| Or at least threatening to challenge her. Even if Sanders can make up his delegate deficit, Clinton’s lead in superdelegates remains a huge obstacle. In 2008, those superdelegates were closely watched to see how they could change the close race between Clinton and Barack Obama. But it’s rare for them to switch sides, and the fact that they are such important party figures (governors, members of Congress, ex-presidents and members of the Democratic National Committee) means that their support counts for a lot in affecting a candidate’s strength in the general election. Despite his huge win in Michigan, the fact remains that Sanders has a lot of ground to recover if he wants to catch up with Clinton. | Or at least threatening to challenge her. Even if Sanders can make up his delegate deficit, Clinton’s lead in superdelegates remains a huge obstacle. In 2008, those superdelegates were closely watched to see how they could change the close race between Clinton and Barack Obama. But it’s rare for them to switch sides, and the fact that they are such important party figures (governors, members of Congress, ex-presidents and members of the Democratic National Committee) means that their support counts for a lot in affecting a candidate’s strength in the general election. Despite his huge win in Michigan, the fact remains that Sanders has a lot of ground to recover if he wants to catch up with Clinton. |
| The Republican race | The Republican race |
| Donald Trump had a successful night – he met, and then exceeded, expectations. Claims about an anti-Trump surge (based in part on spending by candidates on anti-Trump ads) appear to have been premature. Michigan in particular was a big win for the New York businessman. That’s not just because the state offered 59 delegates; it’s also because of who the individual voters were. Michigan’s voting population is pretty similar to the national numbers in terms of age, income and education. That could be good for Trump as candidates begin to think about shifting their rhetoric toward the general election. | Donald Trump had a successful night – he met, and then exceeded, expectations. Claims about an anti-Trump surge (based in part on spending by candidates on anti-Trump ads) appear to have been premature. Michigan in particular was a big win for the New York businessman. That’s not just because the state offered 59 delegates; it’s also because of who the individual voters were. Michigan’s voting population is pretty similar to the national numbers in terms of age, income and education. That could be good for Trump as candidates begin to think about shifting their rhetoric toward the general election. |
| Michigan is also meaningful because it brings Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates needed to get the nomination. Currently the New York businessman has 458. | Michigan is also meaningful because it brings Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates needed to get the nomination. Currently the New York businessman has 458. |
| However, there is also reason for Trump supporters to temper their enthusiasm over the Michigan results: he was pretty likely to have won there. Polling averages ahead of tonight’s results showed the candidate with 37% support, ahead of Kasich in second place on 25%. For Trump to really secure his victory, he needs to make sure that his wins tonight translate into support in the states voting next Tuesday – Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio – which will be more important in terms of delegates, most of them being winner-takes-all rather than proportional. Success could be all about messaging, something at which, so far, the Trump campaign has proven adept.. | However, there is also reason for Trump supporters to temper their enthusiasm over the Michigan results: he was pretty likely to have won there. Polling averages ahead of tonight’s results showed the candidate with 37% support, ahead of Kasich in second place on 25%. For Trump to really secure his victory, he needs to make sure that his wins tonight translate into support in the states voting next Tuesday – Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio – which will be more important in terms of delegates, most of them being winner-takes-all rather than proportional. Success could be all about messaging, something at which, so far, the Trump campaign has proven adept.. |
| But the underdogs matter in the Republican race too. Kasich had an exceptional night, taking 24.3% of votes in Michigan. It seems that at least some of that success is down to former Marco Rubio voters reconsidering their options. After he saw a brief rise in support at the start of February, polls suggest that the Florida senator has fallen again in popularity. Last night, for the second time, Rubio failed to pick up a single delegate. With less than half the number of delegates that Cruz has, Rubio now has a slim chance of winning the nomination. | But the underdogs matter in the Republican race too. Kasich had an exceptional night, taking 24.3% of votes in Michigan. It seems that at least some of that success is down to former Marco Rubio voters reconsidering their options. After he saw a brief rise in support at the start of February, polls suggest that the Florida senator has fallen again in popularity. Last night, for the second time, Rubio failed to pick up a single delegate. With less than half the number of delegates that Cruz has, Rubio now has a slim chance of winning the nomination. |
| The real question, though, is whether Republicans are any closer to having a contested convention – in which delegates would be free to vote again, potentially even for new candidates, after the primaries failed to produce a clear winner – as a result of last night’s vote. Despite Cruz’s win in Idaho, that’s still not clear. However, things will probably become much more clear a week from now when those five states with large delegate numbers up for grabs hold their primary elections. Watch this space. | The real question, though, is whether Republicans are any closer to having a contested convention – in which delegates would be free to vote again, potentially even for new candidates, after the primaries failed to produce a clear winner – as a result of last night’s vote. Despite Cruz’s win in Idaho, that’s still not clear. However, things will probably become much more clear a week from now when those five states with large delegate numbers up for grabs hold their primary elections. Watch this space. |
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