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| US jobs report beats forecasts, but wages disappoint - business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.49pm GMT | |
| 13:49 | |
| More Americans are returning to the jobs market. | |
| The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7% in February. That means more people are either in work, or looking. | |
| Don't look now, but it's starting to look like Americans are coming back to the labor force. #jobsday pic.twitter.com/KrZzydu7Vi | |
| That could explain why wage growth is disappointing -- employers don’t need to offer large pay rises if there is still ‘slack’ in the jobs market. | |
| 1.45pm GMT | |
| 13:45 | |
| Alan Krueger, Princeton economics professor, says the fall in earnings last month is a blow. | |
| Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he says: | |
| I’m surprised that we didn’t see a pickup in wages....This report, behind the headline jobs number, is disappointing. | |
| 1.40pm GMT | |
| 13:40 | |
| Despite a pretty big beat on headline, worth noting that US average hourly earnings fall for first time since 2014!! #NFP | |
| 1.39pm GMT | |
| 13:39 | |
| Wage growth disappoints | |
| Put the confetti away. Although job creation was strong, wage growth was not. | |
| Average earnings of America’s private workers FELL by 0.1% during February, reversing the 0.5% rise seen in January. | |
| That means wages are only 2.2% higher than a year ago. | |
| Today’s report says: | |
| In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.35, following an increase of 12 cents in January. | |
| Average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year. | |
| A big number and bad hourly earnings is not a tightening labor marketnot good in that respect | |
| Updated | |
| at 1.40pm GMT | |
| 1.37pm GMT | |
| 13:37 | |
| Job creation was quite broad-based last month. | |
| The Bureau for Labour Statistics says: | |
| Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services, | |
| Job losses continued in mining. | |
| 1.34pm GMT | |
| 13:34 | |
| The US unemployment rate remains at an eight-year low of 4.9%. | |
| Non-farm payrolls grew 242k last month -- much stronger than expected. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%, as expected. | |
| 1.31pm GMT | |
| 13:31 | |
| JOBS REPORT BEATS FORECASTS | |
| Here we go! | |
| The US economy created 242,000 new jobs last month -- a better performance than expected. | |
| That beats market expectations for 195,00 new jobs | |
| And January’s figure have been revised higher too, to show that 172,000 new hires (up from 151k originally). | |
| More to follow... | |
| 1.17pm GMT | 1.17pm GMT |
| 13:17 | 13:17 |
| Augustin Eden, research analyst at Accendo Markets, reckons Wall Street will be most interested in the earnings figures: | Augustin Eden, research analyst at Accendo Markets, reckons Wall Street will be most interested in the earnings figures: |
| We expect markets to concentrate on wage growth rather than non-farm payrolls. It is, after all, inflation that’s the key metric for the Fed right now. | We expect markets to concentrate on wage growth rather than non-farm payrolls. It is, after all, inflation that’s the key metric for the Fed right now. |
| 1.07pm GMT | 1.07pm GMT |
| 13:07 | 13:07 |
| US jobs report: What to watch for | US jobs report: What to watch for |
| The waiting is nearly over. | The waiting is nearly over. |
| In 30 minute time, the latest US jobs report will hit the tape and we’ll know how America’s employment market performed last month. | In 30 minute time, the latest US jobs report will hit the tape and we’ll know how America’s employment market performed last month. |
| Here’s what to watch for: | Here’s what to watch for: |
| 1) How many new jobs were created in February. The consensus is for a 195,000 increase in the Non-Farm Payroll, up from a disappointing 151,000 in January. | 1) How many new jobs were created in February. The consensus is for a 195,000 increase in the Non-Farm Payroll, up from a disappointing 151,000 in January. |
| As usual, Wall Street estimates vary quite widely, from 165k to 220k. | As usual, Wall Street estimates vary quite widely, from 165k to 220k. |
| #NFP HSBC 220kBNP, JP 215kMS 210kBarCap, Citi 200kDB, Exp. 195k Credit Ag 190kCS 185kUBS, WFC, BofAML 175kJefferies 165k | #NFP HSBC 220kBNP, JP 215kMS 210kBarCap, Citi 200kDB, Exp. 195k Credit Ag 190kCS 185kUBS, WFC, BofAML 175kJefferies 165k |
| Some observers are more pessimistic though, such: | Some observers are more pessimistic though, such: |
| #NFPGuesses +82k | #NFPGuesses +82k |
| There’s also a chance that January’s figures will be revised. | There’s also a chance that January’s figures will be revised. |
| 2) Where’s the wage growth? We got a surprisingly strong 0.5% pick-up in earnings growth last month, suggesting that the recovery was reaching workers’ pockets | 2) Where’s the wage growth? We got a surprisingly strong 0.5% pick-up in earnings growth last month, suggesting that the recovery was reaching workers’ pockets |
| 3) Has the unemployment rate come down again? It hit an eight-year low of 4.9% in January, which should have reassured the Federal Reserve over its December rate hike. | 3) Has the unemployment rate come down again? It hit an eight-year low of 4.9% in January, which should have reassured the Federal Reserve over its December rate hike. |
| 4) But what’s the deeper picture? The labor force participation rate has been close to its lowest in decades, showing that many Americans simply stopped looking for work. Underemployment is another key measure; the report will show how many people wanted to work more hours. | 4) But what’s the deeper picture? The labor force participation rate has been close to its lowest in decades, showing that many Americans simply stopped looking for work. Underemployment is another key measure; the report will show how many people wanted to work more hours. |
| Arnaud Masset, analyst at Swiss online bank Swissquote, says the Payroll will shed light on whether America’s economy risks recession this year. | Arnaud Masset, analyst at Swiss online bank Swissquote, says the Payroll will shed light on whether America’s economy risks recession this year. |
| Even the most hawkish Fed members have stopped giving overly optimistic speeches, instead becoming more cautious about the US outlook. | Even the most hawkish Fed members have stopped giving overly optimistic speeches, instead becoming more cautious about the US outlook. |
| More and more market participants are wondering if the US economy is on the edge of a recession or whether this is just a temporary setback (apparently the temporary setback has become seasonal since last year…). In our opinion, it is still too early to ring alarm bells.” | More and more market participants are wondering if the US economy is on the edge of a recession or whether this is just a temporary setback (apparently the temporary setback has become seasonal since last year…). In our opinion, it is still too early to ring alarm bells.” |
| 12.36pm GMT | 12.36pm GMT |
| 12:36 | 12:36 |
| Brazilian markets flying for second day as corruption scandal reaches near heart of ruling Workers' Party. Absolutely on fire. | Brazilian markets flying for second day as corruption scandal reaches near heart of ruling Workers' Party. Absolutely on fire. |
| 12.27pm GMT | 12.27pm GMT |
| 12:27 | 12:27 |
| Brazilian markets leap after Lula detained | Brazilian markets leap after Lula detained |
| Demand for Brazilian assets is surging today, after former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was detained by police. | Demand for Brazilian assets is surging today, after former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was detained by police. |
| Lula was dragged into the long-running corruption scandal that has gripped Brazil for months, when federal officers raided his house early this morning. | Lula was dragged into the long-running corruption scandal that has gripped Brazil for months, when federal officers raided his house early this morning. |
| Our Latin America correspondent Jonathan Watts explains why the move is so important: | Our Latin America correspondent Jonathan Watts explains why the move is so important: |
| The detention of the influential Workers party politician – who is best known by his nickname Lula – marks a dramatic new phase of the Lava Jato (“carwash”) probe into bribery and kickback allegations involving the nation’s leading companies and dozens of congressmen. | The detention of the influential Workers party politician – who is best known by his nickname Lula – marks a dramatic new phase of the Lava Jato (“carwash”) probe into bribery and kickback allegations involving the nation’s leading companies and dozens of congressmen. |
| It is likely to further add to the pressure on the government of president Dilma Rousseff, who is already struggling with an impeachment challenge, economic recession and the Zika epidemic. | It is likely to further add to the pressure on the government of president Dilma Rousseff, who is already struggling with an impeachment challenge, economic recession and the Zika epidemic. |
| More here: Brazilian police detain former president Lula in corruption inquiry | More here: Brazilian police detain former president Lula in corruption inquiry |
| Investors are piling into Brazilian assets, anticipating political change. Brazil is currently suffering a deep recession, and rampant inflation. | Investors are piling into Brazilian assets, anticipating political change. Brazil is currently suffering a deep recession, and rampant inflation. |
| The Brazilian real has already surged by over 2% against the US dollar, from 3.8 against the $1 to 3.7. The stock market is tipped to leap by 6% when trading begins. | The Brazilian real has already surged by over 2% against the US dollar, from 3.8 against the $1 to 3.7. The stock market is tipped to leap by 6% when trading begins. |
| Brazil real flying as former Prez Lula's house raided by police. Rumors Dilma will resign as early as this weekend. | Brazil real flying as former Prez Lula's house raided by police. Rumors Dilma will resign as early as this weekend. |
| CEO's resign and stock prices rise all the time but the BRL performance on the Lula arrest is some sublime price action | CEO's resign and stock prices rise all the time but the BRL performance on the Lula arrest is some sublime price action |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 12.37pm GMT | at 12.37pm GMT |
| 11.41am GMT | 11.41am GMT |
| 11:41 | 11:41 |
| Today’s flurry of optimism is also pushing copper to its highest level since mid-November, as Reuters reports: | Today’s flurry of optimism is also pushing copper to its highest level since mid-November, as Reuters reports: |
| Copper prices rose to their highest in nearly four months on Friday, boosted by optimism about demand prospects and output cuts that will help the market move towards balance. | Copper prices rose to their highest in nearly four months on Friday, boosted by optimism about demand prospects and output cuts that will help the market move towards balance. |
| Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 1% at $4,905 a tonne at 1048 GMT, on course for its largest weekly gain since September last year. | Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 1% at $4,905 a tonne at 1048 GMT, on course for its largest weekly gain since September last year. |
| Copper earlier touched $4,933 a tonne, its highest since November 12. | Copper earlier touched $4,933 a tonne, its highest since November 12. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.52am GMT | at 11.52am GMT |
| 11.28am GMT | 11.28am GMT |
| 11:28 | 11:28 |
| Iron ore has hit its highest level since last October this morning, continuing a recent rally. | Iron ore has hit its highest level since last October this morning, continuing a recent rally. |
| Iron ore rally continues - price jumped 5% today to $53.75/ton a new 5-month high on @IronOreIndex pic.twitter.com/mTnh5DJs7B | Iron ore rally continues - price jumped 5% today to $53.75/ton a new 5-month high on @IronOreIndex pic.twitter.com/mTnh5DJs7B |
| Iron ore is benefitting from reports that China is cutting its steel sector and laying off millions of workers, in an attempt to cut oversupply. | Iron ore is benefitting from reports that China is cutting its steel sector and laying off millions of workers, in an attempt to cut oversupply. |
| But traders should be cautious, given iron ore demand is so closely linked to China’s economic growth. Trimming supply doesn’t guarantee demand for steel, as the Wall Street Journal warned this week. | But traders should be cautious, given iron ore demand is so closely linked to China’s economic growth. Trimming supply doesn’t guarantee demand for steel, as the Wall Street Journal warned this week. |
| 11.18am GMT | 11.18am GMT |
| 11:18 | 11:18 |
| Here’s our take on today’s car figures: | Here’s our take on today’s car figures: |
| Related: UK car registrations highest since 2004 | Related: UK car registrations highest since 2004 |
| 11.09am GMT | 11.09am GMT |
| 11:09 | 11:09 |
| It’s a bleak morning for workers at troubled UK high street chain BHS. | It’s a bleak morning for workers at troubled UK high street chain BHS. |
| The company’s owners are planning to cut 350 jobs, and is also threatening to close half its stores unless landlords cut the rent. | The company’s owners are planning to cut 350 jobs, and is also threatening to close half its stores unless landlords cut the rent. |
| The job cuts come a day after BHS filed for insolvency protection, as we reported yesterday. My colleague Graham Ruddick has the story: | The job cuts come a day after BHS filed for insolvency protection, as we reported yesterday. My colleague Graham Ruddick has the story: |
| The retailer intends to make 220 people redundant in stores and 150 people in head office. Another 100 roles that had not been filled in BHS’s head office in recent months will also be scrapped, meaning its central operations will shrink by roughy a third. | The retailer intends to make 220 people redundant in stores and 150 people in head office. Another 100 roles that had not been filled in BHS’s head office in recent months will also be scrapped, meaning its central operations will shrink by roughy a third. |
| BHS bosses briefed staff about the job losses and the turnaround plan on Friday morning. | BHS bosses briefed staff about the job losses and the turnaround plan on Friday morning. |
| As well as the job cuts, BHS is threatening to close up to half its stores if landlords do not agree to reduce the rents. BHS has filed a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), a type of insolvency proceeding, in an attempt to cut its costs. | As well as the job cuts, BHS is threatening to close up to half its stores if landlords do not agree to reduce the rents. BHS has filed a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), a type of insolvency proceeding, in an attempt to cut its costs. |
| Here’s the full story: | Here’s the full story: |
| Related: BHS plans to make 350 redundant in head office and shops | Related: BHS plans to make 350 redundant in head office and shops |
| 10.57am GMT | 10.57am GMT |
| 10:57 | 10:57 |
| Markets up thanks to 'crazy' change in mood | Markets up thanks to 'crazy' change in mood |
| The FTSE 100 is on track to close at a new 2016 high, although the US jobs report could yet change that. | The FTSE 100 is on track to close at a new 2016 high, although the US jobs report could yet change that. |
| After three hours of trading, the blue chip index is up a steady 0.5% at 6161 points. | After three hours of trading, the blue chip index is up a steady 0.5% at 6161 points. |
| Most other European indices are higher too, following Asia’s lead overnight, meaning global markets are still at a two-month high. | Most other European indices are higher too, following Asia’s lead overnight, meaning global markets are still at a two-month high. |
| Ryan Myerberg, a portfolio manager at Janus Capital, says optimism has come pouring back into the markets recently. | Ryan Myerberg, a portfolio manager at Janus Capital, says optimism has come pouring back into the markets recently. |
| He says (via Reuters): | He says (via Reuters): |
| “We didn’t believe the ‘world is going to end’ story, but the way the mood has changed in the last couple of weeks is just crazy.” | “We didn’t believe the ‘world is going to end’ story, but the way the mood has changed in the last couple of weeks is just crazy.” |
| Since the beginning of the year it has been like driving down the motorway where every couple of miles a tractor has overturned, whether that be China, oil, the banks, that you have to swerve around.” | Since the beginning of the year it has been like driving down the motorway where every couple of miles a tractor has overturned, whether that be China, oil, the banks, that you have to swerve around.” |
| And this tweet shows how some emerging markets have led the rally in 2016, after a couple of challenging years. | And this tweet shows how some emerging markets have led the rally in 2016, after a couple of challenging years. |
| #EmergingMarkets rebound, for now https://t.co/3b0FHesQIB pic.twitter.com/geaUOgQxXd | #EmergingMarkets rebound, for now https://t.co/3b0FHesQIB pic.twitter.com/geaUOgQxXd |
| 10.30am GMT | 10.30am GMT |
| 10:30 | 10:30 |
| Gold hits 13-month high | Gold hits 13-month high |
| Money has been pouring back into gold this morning, driving the price of billion up to a 13-month high. | Money has been pouring back into gold this morning, driving the price of billion up to a 13-month high. |
| Gold just hit $1274.50 an ounce, up 1% today, its highest point since February 2015. | Gold just hit $1274.50 an ounce, up 1% today, its highest point since February 2015. |
| It’s surprising to see gold and shares both rallying. But it appears that gold is in demand from investors who are worried about negative interest rates, which have helped drive down the return on many safer assets. | It’s surprising to see gold and shares both rallying. But it appears that gold is in demand from investors who are worried about negative interest rates, which have helped drive down the return on many safer assets. |
| There’s also a theory that Chinese demand for gold could jump if Beijing imposes capital controls, to prevent money leaving the country. | There’s also a theory that Chinese demand for gold could jump if Beijing imposes capital controls, to prevent money leaving the country. |
| Gold enters first bull market since 2013 https://t.co/4wLibADpDs pic.twitter.com/jdLHYc97xh | Gold enters first bull market since 2013 https://t.co/4wLibADpDs pic.twitter.com/jdLHYc97xh |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.37am GMT | at 10.37am GMT |