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White House hails jobs report despite wage disappoint - business live White House hails jobs report despite wage disappoint - business live
(35 minutes later)
4.06pm GMT
16:06
Bloomberg News’ Matt Boes has been truffling through the Jobs Report.
He’s spotted that unemployment among America’s Hispanic workers fell sharply last month. And the rate of retirements across the labor market dipped a little too.
One really bright spot in the jobs report: Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate plunged last month pic.twitter.com/1gffkv2kdR
Looks like a bit of a slowdown in the "retirement rate" lately but still elevated relative to previous years pic.twitter.com/HDvoCgDt5X
3.07pm GMT3.07pm GMT
15:0715:07
White House: It's a very good reportWhite House: It's a very good report
Jason Furman, who chairs president Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, insists that “This is a very good report”.Jason Furman, who chairs president Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, insists that “This is a very good report”.
The fall in the underemployment rate, and the rise in the participation rate, show that the labor market continued to improve, argues Furman on Bloomberg TV.The fall in the underemployment rate, and the rise in the participation rate, show that the labor market continued to improve, argues Furman on Bloomberg TV.
But what about the 0.1% fall in wages in February?But what about the 0.1% fall in wages in February?
Furman agrees that wage growth isn’t good enough.Furman agrees that wage growth isn’t good enough.
However, January saw unusually high wage growth of 0.5%. On average, the last two months showed wages growing faster than inflation, he says.However, January saw unusually high wage growth of 0.5%. On average, the last two months showed wages growing faster than inflation, he says.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.09pm GMTat 3.09pm GMT
2.48pm GMT2.48pm GMT
14:4814:48
The drop in average earnings has tainted an otherwise solid US jobs report, says David Cheetham, market analyst at online trading platform XTB.com.The drop in average earnings has tainted an otherwise solid US jobs report, says David Cheetham, market analyst at online trading platform XTB.com.
Overall the report paints a fairly strong picture of continued strength in the US labour market with the 4-month moving average remaining firmly above the 200k mark and the unemployment rate of 4.9% remains near its lowest level in a decade.Overall the report paints a fairly strong picture of continued strength in the US labour market with the 4-month moving average remaining firmly above the 200k mark and the unemployment rate of 4.9% remains near its lowest level in a decade.
The first contraction in average hourly earnings since January last year came as an unexpected shock, although having said that there remains little evidence here of any real weakness in the labour market that would be prohibitive for Fed rate hikes in the not too distant future.’The first contraction in average hourly earnings since January last year came as an unexpected shock, although having said that there remains little evidence here of any real weakness in the labour market that would be prohibitive for Fed rate hikes in the not too distant future.’
2.45pm GMT2.45pm GMT
14:4514:45
Markets unmoved by Jobs ReportMarkets unmoved by Jobs Report
The financial markets are not particularly impressed by today’s jobs report.The financial markets are not particularly impressed by today’s jobs report.
Wall Street has just opened, and the Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 13 points or 0.08% to 16,931.Wall Street has just opened, and the Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 13 points or 0.08% to 16,931.
The tech-focused Nasdaq index is down 0.3%The tech-focused Nasdaq index is down 0.3%
Markets are still up in Europe, though, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% at 6,163 points - close to its highest levels this year.Markets are still up in Europe, though, with the FTSE 100 up 0.5% at 6,163 points - close to its highest levels this year.
2.35pm GMT2.35pm GMT
14:3514:35
Despite a month-on-month fall in wages, overall today’s report bodes well for consumption, says Nina Skero, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.Despite a month-on-month fall in wages, overall today’s report bodes well for consumption, says Nina Skero, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Strong job creation will make consumers both more able and, via boosted consumer confidence, more willing to spend.Strong job creation will make consumers both more able and, via boosted consumer confidence, more willing to spend.
A healthy consumer spending outlook is especially important for the US economy as the country faces challenges on other economic fronts.A healthy consumer spending outlook is especially important for the US economy as the country faces challenges on other economic fronts.
CEBR agrees that the Fed could raise interest rates again soon -- something Skero calls “unwarranted and premature”.CEBR agrees that the Fed could raise interest rates again soon -- something Skero calls “unwarranted and premature”.
They also sent over this chart, showing the steady recovery in the US labor market since 2010.They also sent over this chart, showing the steady recovery in the US labor market since 2010.
2.30pm GMT2.30pm GMT
14:3014:30
Richard de Meo, managing director of Foenix Partners, is quite upbeat about the Non-Farm Payroll.Richard de Meo, managing director of Foenix Partners, is quite upbeat about the Non-Farm Payroll.
He reckons it has “shaken off the doubters” who thought the US economy was weakening.He reckons it has “shaken off the doubters” who thought the US economy was weakening.
2.28pm GMT2.28pm GMT
14:2814:28
Today’s jobs report is a mixed bag, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.Today’s jobs report is a mixed bag, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics.
But on balance, he thinks it could tee-up a Federal Reserve rate hike this summer:But on balance, he thinks it could tee-up a Federal Reserve rate hike this summer:
Overall, it’s clear that labour market conditions are still strong. The lack of a more marked pick-up in wage growth is the only missing element.Overall, it’s clear that labour market conditions are still strong. The lack of a more marked pick-up in wage growth is the only missing element.
But as far as the Fed is concerned, it is already seeing a clear acceleration in core price inflation, so it can’t delay raising interest rates for much longer. A June rate hike is coming.But as far as the Fed is concerned, it is already seeing a clear acceleration in core price inflation, so it can’t delay raising interest rates for much longer. A June rate hike is coming.
2.24pm GMT2.24pm GMT
14:2414:24
Ian Shepherdson, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, has a cunning theory to explain the surprise dip in earnings (from $25.38 per hour to $25.35).Ian Shepherdson, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, has a cunning theory to explain the surprise dip in earnings (from $25.38 per hour to $25.35).
He thinks it’s all in the timing. Workers who are paid every fortnight would have received their second wage payment on 15th February, three days AFTER the Non-Farm Payroll survey took place.He thinks it’s all in the timing. Workers who are paid every fortnight would have received their second wage payment on 15th February, three days AFTER the Non-Farm Payroll survey took place.
Shepherdson says:Shepherdson says:
Don’t be taken in by the dip in hourly earnings; it just continues a very consistent pattern of undershooting in months when the 15th – payday for people paid semi-monthly – falls after the employment survey week.Don’t be taken in by the dip in hourly earnings; it just continues a very consistent pattern of undershooting in months when the 15th – payday for people paid semi-monthly – falls after the employment survey week.
Same thing in March, but then there’ll be a huge rebound, putting year-on-year wage growth at new highs.Same thing in March, but then there’ll be a huge rebound, putting year-on-year wage growth at new highs.
This tweet suggests he’s right:This tweet suggests he’s right:
Looked at the calendar effects on hourly earnings changes a few months ago ... Feb. 12 was a Friday this year pic.twitter.com/p17BiIm31PLooked at the calendar effects on hourly earnings changes a few months ago ... Feb. 12 was a Friday this year pic.twitter.com/p17BiIm31P
2.13pm GMT2.13pm GMT
14:1314:13
Financial commentators agree that today’s Non-Farm Payroll report shows solid job creation, but lacklustre wage growth.Financial commentators agree that today’s Non-Farm Payroll report shows solid job creation, but lacklustre wage growth.
Here’s some reaction:Here’s some reaction:
Headline payrolls number strong. However, the devil continues to be in the details. The quality of jobs added is terrible.Headline payrolls number strong. However, the devil continues to be in the details. The quality of jobs added is terrible.
Labor force has grown by 1.52m in the last three months, strongest three-month rise since early 2000.Labor force has grown by 1.52m in the last three months, strongest three-month rise since early 2000.
Your monthly reminder that virtually all the employment gains in the recovery have been full-time. pic.twitter.com/DWQaBjyPUGYour monthly reminder that virtually all the employment gains in the recovery have been full-time. pic.twitter.com/DWQaBjyPUG
US non-farm payrolls rose 242k in February, well above consensus of +190k. However, wage growth slowed to 2.2% (2.5% in Jan)US non-farm payrolls rose 242k in February, well above consensus of +190k. However, wage growth slowed to 2.2% (2.5% in Jan)
2.07pm GMT2.07pm GMT
14:0714:07
Here's where those new jobs were createdHere's where those new jobs were created
Most of the jobs created in America last month were in healthcare, retail, and in bars and restaurants.Most of the jobs created in America last month were in healthcare, retail, and in bars and restaurants.
Here’s a breakdownHere’s a breakdown
The BLS adds that:The BLS adds that:
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.5%), adult women (4.5%), teenagers (15.6%), Whites (4.3%), Blacks (8.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.4%) showed little or no change in February.Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.5%), adult women (4.5%), teenagers (15.6%), Whites (4.3%), Blacks (8.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.4%) showed little or no change in February.
1.49pm GMT1.49pm GMT
13:4913:49
More Americans are returning to the jobs market.More Americans are returning to the jobs market.
The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7% in February. That means more people are either in work, or looking.The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7% in February. That means more people are either in work, or looking.
Don't look now, but it's starting to look like Americans are coming back to the labor force. #jobsday pic.twitter.com/KrZzydu7ViDon't look now, but it's starting to look like Americans are coming back to the labor force. #jobsday pic.twitter.com/KrZzydu7Vi
That could explain why wage growth is disappointing -- employers don’t need to offer large pay rises if there is still ‘slack’ in the jobs market.That could explain why wage growth is disappointing -- employers don’t need to offer large pay rises if there is still ‘slack’ in the jobs market.
1.45pm GMT1.45pm GMT
13:4513:45
Alan Krueger, Princeton economics professor, says the fall in earnings last month is a blow.Alan Krueger, Princeton economics professor, says the fall in earnings last month is a blow.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he says:Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he says:
I’m surprised that we didn’t see a pickup in wages....This report, behind the headline jobs number, is disappointing.I’m surprised that we didn’t see a pickup in wages....This report, behind the headline jobs number, is disappointing.
1.40pm GMT1.40pm GMT
13:4013:40
Despite a pretty big beat on headline, worth noting that US average hourly earnings fall for first time since 2014!! #NFPDespite a pretty big beat on headline, worth noting that US average hourly earnings fall for first time since 2014!! #NFP
1.39pm GMT1.39pm GMT
13:3913:39
Wage growth disappointsWage growth disappoints
Put the confetti away. Although job creation was strong, wage growth was not.Put the confetti away. Although job creation was strong, wage growth was not.
Average earnings of America’s private workers FELL by 0.1% during February, reversing the 0.5% rise seen in January.Average earnings of America’s private workers FELL by 0.1% during February, reversing the 0.5% rise seen in January.
That means wages are only 2.2% higher than a year ago.That means wages are only 2.2% higher than a year ago.
Today’s report says:Today’s report says:
In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.35, following an increase of 12 cents in January.In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.35, following an increase of 12 cents in January.
Average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year.Average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year.
A big number and bad hourly earnings is not a tightening labor marketnot good in that respectA big number and bad hourly earnings is not a tightening labor marketnot good in that respect
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.40pm GMTat 1.40pm GMT
1.37pm GMT1.37pm GMT
13:3713:37
Job creation was quite broad-based last month.Job creation was quite broad-based last month.
The Bureau for Labour Statistics says:The Bureau for Labour Statistics says:
Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services,Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services,
Job losses continued in mining.Job losses continued in mining.
1.34pm GMT1.34pm GMT
13:3413:34
The US unemployment rate remains at an eight-year low of 4.9%.The US unemployment rate remains at an eight-year low of 4.9%.
Non-farm payrolls grew 242k last month -- much stronger than expected. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%, as expected.Non-farm payrolls grew 242k last month -- much stronger than expected. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%, as expected.
1.31pm GMT1.31pm GMT
13:3113:31
JOBS REPORT BEATS FORECASTSJOBS REPORT BEATS FORECASTS
Here we go!Here we go!
The US economy created 242,000 new jobs last month -- a better performance than expected.The US economy created 242,000 new jobs last month -- a better performance than expected.
That beats market expectations for 195,00 new jobsThat beats market expectations for 195,00 new jobs
And January’s figure have been revised higher too, to show that 172,000 new hires (up from 151k originally).And January’s figure have been revised higher too, to show that 172,000 new hires (up from 151k originally).
More to follow...More to follow...