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Turnbull government seizes on negative gearing report – politics live Turnbull government seizes on negative gearing report – politics live
(35 minutes later)
12.13am GMT
00:13
Release the ferrets! All the ferrets!
Terrific picture from Mike Bowers of the shadow treasurer in full flight.
Updated
at 12.23am GMT
12.11am GMT
00:11
Wrong on a family blog, but I’ll share it anyway.
@murpharoo the reverse ferret comes before or after the squirrel grip?
12.09am GMT
00:09
On reflection it’s not so much reversing the ferret as picking up the ferret and shoving it in the face of your opponent.
I know it’s obvious but I’ll say it anyway: overstatement tends to exist in close proximity to election campaigns. The closer the campaign, the greater the tendency for over reach.
Let’s cut through here.
Morrison shouldn’t have presented a report that didn’t even look at the Labor policy on negative gearing as a savage condemnation of Labor’s policy. That’s any port in a storm behaviour unworthy of the office he holds. Desperate, tabloid and dumb.
But this nonsense from Morrison is just garden variety intra-day political opportunism. Utegate was on a whole other level.
11.54pm GMT
23:54
Down in the courtyard, the shadow treasurer Chris Bowen is out declaring Scott Morrison is shrinking before our eyes. Bowen says Morrison needs to stop lying and release his own tax policy.
This goes to Scott Morrison’s character and credibility as treasurer.
Labor is busy attempting to reverse the ferret on the BIS Shrapnel report, given the consultancy has now clarified that the report being pushed by the government today is not, actually, an analysis of Labor’s negative gearing policy.
Bowen is attempting to liken this episode to the Godwin Grech affair, where fakery damaged Malcolm Turnbull when he was opposition leader.
11.43pm GMT11.43pm GMT
23:4323:43
Back in the Senate, the Family First Senator Bob Day is now fretting about children in the Netherlands. Back in the Senate, the Family First senator Bob Day is now fretting about children in the Netherlands.
Day says safe guards in euthanasia legislation are not safe. [Brief pause]. Day says safeguards in euthanasia legislation are not safe. [Brief pause].
Nor are they guards.Nor are they guards.
Updated
at 12.06am GMT
11.40pm GMT11.40pm GMT
23:4023:40
Word around the building is the prime minister isn’t sold on the idea of going to a double dissolution election, despite all the groundwork the government is putting in to set one up. Word around the building is the prime minister isn’t sold on the idea of going to a double-dissolution election, despite all the groundwork the government is putting in to set one up.
Various ministers, including Christopher Pyne, have been lunging out of the blocks on the double D point, presenting it as a near certainty from the government’s point of view – leading John Howard to note somewhat archly over the last couple of days that public statements about elections really should reside with prime ministers.Various ministers, including Christopher Pyne, have been lunging out of the blocks on the double D point, presenting it as a near certainty from the government’s point of view – leading John Howard to note somewhat archly over the last couple of days that public statements about elections really should reside with prime ministers.
With Turnbull’s cool feet in mind, it’s interesting to read Nikki Savva in The Australian today making a vigorous case for him pulling the double dissolution trigger. Just get on with it Malcolm is her analysis. With Turnbull’s cool feet in mind, it’s interesting to read Niki Savva in the Australian today making a vigorous case for him pulling the double dissolution trigger. Just get on with it Malcolm is her analysis.
If he waits and allows a double dissolution to slip away, he runs the risk that he will not be able to fully capitalise on measures to combat union corruption that will provide his trigger.If he waits and allows a double dissolution to slip away, he runs the risk that he will not be able to fully capitalise on measures to combat union corruption that will provide his trigger.
He also runs the risk his tax policy and the budget will disappear into the 24-hour media vortex, and that the drumbeat will begin again after a brief respite for another new agenda for the election. There is much to fear from a long campaign but, given it is already effectively under way, there is little to gain by waiting and the campaign becomes longer still.He also runs the risk his tax policy and the budget will disappear into the 24-hour media vortex, and that the drumbeat will begin again after a brief respite for another new agenda for the election. There is much to fear from a long campaign but, given it is already effectively under way, there is little to gain by waiting and the campaign becomes longer still.
Waiting will also ensure the survival through another term of most of the crossbenchers, some of whom have earned the right to spend more time at home with their families, where they can eat Maccas whenever they like and we won’t have to pay for it.Waiting will also ensure the survival through another term of most of the crossbenchers, some of whom have earned the right to spend more time at home with their families, where they can eat Maccas whenever they like and we won’t have to pay for it.
Sooner rather than later, Turnbull needs to put his agenda to the people and he has to stamp his authority on the party and on the policies he puts forward. Last time I checked neither Tony Abbott nor Cory Bernardi won last year’s leadership ballot.Sooner rather than later, Turnbull needs to put his agenda to the people and he has to stamp his authority on the party and on the policies he puts forward. Last time I checked neither Tony Abbott nor Cory Bernardi won last year’s leadership ballot.
Updated
at 12.06am GMT
11.26pm GMT11.26pm GMT
23:2623:26
Q: Are any changes to negative gearing under consideration? Or is it in the GST ‘too hard’ basket?Q: Are any changes to negative gearing under consideration? Or is it in the GST ‘too hard’ basket?
Turnbull starts with the history of the tax review. He says nothing under his prime ministership has been kicked into the long grass for political reasons. He says the government looked at the GST very carefully before determining action wasn’t worth it. He says when the government has completed the rest of the process it will let the public know.Turnbull starts with the history of the tax review. He says nothing under his prime ministership has been kicked into the long grass for political reasons. He says the government looked at the GST very carefully before determining action wasn’t worth it. He says when the government has completed the rest of the process it will let the public know.
Q: Negative gearing prime minister?Q: Negative gearing prime minister?
Turnbull says there are dangers rushing into policy that hasn’t been thought through. He says the government respects the intelligence of the Australian people by looking at the evidence and then making announcements.Turnbull says there are dangers rushing into policy that hasn’t been thought through. He says the government respects the intelligence of the Australian people by looking at the evidence and then making announcements.
Q: So it’s still on the table?Q: So it’s still on the table?
We are not going to be providing a running commentary on our own processes.We are not going to be providing a running commentary on our own processes.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.38pm GMTat 11.38pm GMT
11.21pm GMT11.21pm GMT
23:2123:21
The prime minister is asked whether he believes Tony Abbott when he says he didn’t leak sensitive cabinet material to the Australian. The prime minister says he isn’t interested in personalities.The prime minister is asked whether he believes Tony Abbott when he says he didn’t leak sensitive cabinet material to the Australian. The prime minister says he isn’t interested in personalities.
Q: Do you believe Tony Abbott is undermining you?Q: Do you believe Tony Abbott is undermining you?
My focus is on ensuring we have great jobs for our children and grandchildren ...My focus is on ensuring we have great jobs for our children and grandchildren ...
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.38pm GMTat 11.38pm GMT
11.19pm GMT11.19pm GMT
23:1923:19
The prime minister has bobbed up at today’s off campus event. Right now Malcolm Turnbull is extolling the benefits of walking. Walking prevents people from becoming obese.The prime minister has bobbed up at today’s off campus event. Right now Malcolm Turnbull is extolling the benefits of walking. Walking prevents people from becoming obese.
11.05pm GMT11.05pm GMT
23:0523:05
Once you draw a line in the sand, there are always demands for the line to be moved. It’s human nature.Once you draw a line in the sand, there are always demands for the line to be moved. It’s human nature.
Cory Bernardi, still talking about people being killed because they have anorexia.Cory Bernardi, still talking about people being killed because they have anorexia.
11.03pm GMT11.03pm GMT
23:0323:03
Shalailah MedhoraShalailah Medhora
Outside the chamber, the number of children in immigration detention has fallen to 58, according to the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, who revealed the figure during his weekly radio interview with Ray Hadley. “We’re getting the number closer to zero,” Dutton said. He acknowledged that the legal wrangling over Baby Asha will likely continue, labelling it a “stalling tactic” by lawyers. “We’re likely to be back in the high court,” Dutton said.Outside the chamber, the number of children in immigration detention has fallen to 58, according to the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, who revealed the figure during his weekly radio interview with Ray Hadley. “We’re getting the number closer to zero,” Dutton said. He acknowledged that the legal wrangling over Baby Asha will likely continue, labelling it a “stalling tactic” by lawyers. “We’re likely to be back in the high court,” Dutton said.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.25pm GMTat 11.25pm GMT
11.00pm GMT11.00pm GMT
23:0023:00
In the Senate, the Liberal Cory Bernardi is speaking about the “slippery slope” in the event that euthanasia laws clear the parliament. I mentioned earlier in the week there’s a cross-party group attempting to get a euthanasia bill through the parliament. He’s worried about children in the Netherlands, who he says are permitted to die under the prevailing regime in that country. Or the elderly, who may feel under pressure. Or depressed people who want to die, but then get treatment and subsequently recover. He’s speaking about a 44-year-old woman who died because she had anorexia. Euthanasia is dangerous, he says.In the Senate, the Liberal Cory Bernardi is speaking about the “slippery slope” in the event that euthanasia laws clear the parliament. I mentioned earlier in the week there’s a cross-party group attempting to get a euthanasia bill through the parliament. He’s worried about children in the Netherlands, who he says are permitted to die under the prevailing regime in that country. Or the elderly, who may feel under pressure. Or depressed people who want to die, but then get treatment and subsequently recover. He’s speaking about a 44-year-old woman who died because she had anorexia. Euthanasia is dangerous, he says.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.24pm GMTat 11.24pm GMT
10.53pm GMT10.53pm GMT
22:5322:53
There’s another NBN leak this morning. Earlier in the week there was an internal document suggesting delays and cost blow-outs in the rollout, now, Fairfax reports, the company building the national broadband network has “quietly trialled a new, low-cost fibre-to-the-premises technology that could achieve the speed and reliability of an all-fibre system to the home, as originally intended by Labor, but at a reduced construction price. But despite the promising results, NBN Co has so far declined to release them, as the government defends its preferred model, which relies principally on copper phone connections for the final link from the neighbourhood cabinet – or node – to the premises.”There’s another NBN leak this morning. Earlier in the week there was an internal document suggesting delays and cost blow-outs in the rollout, now, Fairfax reports, the company building the national broadband network has “quietly trialled a new, low-cost fibre-to-the-premises technology that could achieve the speed and reliability of an all-fibre system to the home, as originally intended by Labor, but at a reduced construction price. But despite the promising results, NBN Co has so far declined to release them, as the government defends its preferred model, which relies principally on copper phone connections for the final link from the neighbourhood cabinet – or node – to the premises.”
I suspect we’ll hear a little of this in question time later on.I suspect we’ll hear a little of this in question time later on.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.02pm GMTat 11.02pm GMT
10.46pm GMT
22:46
Shalailah Medhora
Just a quick recap, Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both attended an International Women’s Day breakfast in Parliament’s Mural Hall earlier this morning. Both leaders paid tribute to their deputies and the women who make up their frontbenches. The prime minister talked of the importance of encouraging greater economic participation by women, labelling it a priority for any government. He reiterated his argument that all violence against women starts with disrespect and urged parents to “ensure that their sons respect the women in their lives”. The opposition leader called for reform of the family court system, saying that survivors of domestic violence face a “long and impoverished” battle to get help. He said awarding perpetrators of violence equal access to their children was “just wrong” and needed to be reviewed.
Updated
at 11.01pm GMT
10.42pm GMT
22:42
I haven’t had a chance yet to get to The Leak and its consequences. Readers with me yesterday will know that there was a significant escalation in tensions between Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull yesterday. Abbott was quoted earlier in the day in the Australian bagging the current prime minister’s position on submarine purchases, in an article that also referenced leaked material from the national security committee of cabinet. Turnbull decided not to take that one on the chin. He called in the AFP.
Scott Morrison was asked about these developments this morning. He hopes the investigation identifies a culprit.
Well, people will make their judgments about who the target was on all these sorts of things. I’m just not going to get into a commentary on it because the right action has been what the prime minister has done. I mean he’s focused on this on what is in Australia’s interests and that is to protect our national security and ensure that the integrity of the way these sensitive matters are handled and respected is preserved. Now that’s why he’s taken the action he’s taken and whoever the culprit was, well, I certainly hope the secretary of defence gets their man or woman.
Updated
at 11.00pm GMT
10.22pm GMT
22:22
Scott Morrison from earlier today on the report that the authors say doesn’t actually model Labor’s policy.
[The BIS Shrapnel work] is a credible report and it shows what we said would happen with Labor’s policy. It would have a significant impact on property values; it’s going to push many people into housing stress. It’s going to require compensation of hundreds of millions of dollars, more than is actually raised by the policy itself.
And what it shows is [Labor] just haven’t done their homework on this. They’ve rushed out there with this policy, they’ve cobbled it together. It has a devastating impact on property markets and people’s homes.
Dear world. If there is any modelling out there to this effect (or to any other effect), by all means, send it my way.
10.12pm GMT
22:12
This modelling was not directed at any policy at all: BIS Shrapnel
Kim Hawtrey from BIS Shrapnel has done an interview this morning with ABC NewsRadio. Key quote. This modelling was not directed at any policy at all.
Q: Labor not surprisingly has rejected your findings, they say this isn’t real modelling and this is not modelling based on any Labor policy.
Kim Hawtrey
Well the report was written over the last few months before Labor released its policy and it wasn’t directed at any particular policy at all and in fact we’ve made no recommendations, our job was simply to chase the effects on the economy by crunching the numbers and looking at what might happen if you did this kind of change.
Q: The vital bit of information missing from your account, which has been pointed to by many this morning, is who commissioned it? Who did pay for this modelling?
Kim Hawtrey:
I’m not at liberty to say that but I can say that it’s not a political organisation or anyone affiliated with a political organisation, it’s simply a private client.
Q: Is it the building, developers lobby interests?
Kim Hawtrey:
No, it’s not and it’s commissioned for commercial reasons not for political reasons, and there’s no mystery or sinister plot there to uncover.
Q: Well there is a mystery and some people are seeing it as sinister, why so secretive?
Kim Hawtrey:
That’s a request of the client.
Q: But modelling simply in – it’s a universal of modelling that modelling supports the finding that clients want, you pay the piper you get your tune.
Kim Hawtrey:
No, we’re an independent company and we are simply doing what economists do and we are impartial and dispassionate in the way that we conduct our economic analysis.
Q: But what economists do is build models based on assumptions and it depends on who’s providing the assumptions, clients provide assumptions without knowing who the client is, this is simply an anonymous press release.
Kim Hawtrey:
No it’s a piece of analysis by an economics consultancy firm and it’s based on a set of assumptions that could be implemented and the purpose is to trace the likely effects of that on the economy.
Q: Did you mention to your clients that if they want to remain anonymous questions are going to be asked about who paid for this modelling.
Kim Hawtrey:
Well I suppose so but we’re releasing the report as a BIS Shrapnel report which is perfectly within our scope to do.
Updated
at 10.23pm GMT
9.49pm GMT
21:49
The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has stopped to talk to reporters after the breakfast to sass the BIS Shrapnel report, a report he says was compiled before the ALP compiled its policy.
Q: Where’s Labor’s modelling on its policy?
This issue has been modelled to death.
(It hasn’t, actually.)
Q: Why don’t you fight the scare campaign with your own modelling?
We are fighting the scare campaign every day and I’m glad you recognise its a scare campaign.
Updated
at 10.23pm GMT
9.45pm GMT
21:45
Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have been at an International Women’s Day breakfast this morning. I’ll catch up on the remarks there in due course.
Updated
at 9.57pm GMT
9.29pm GMT
21:29
To another couple of substantive issues still in the budget/economy space. There are reports again this morning that the government has dumped the option of touching negative gearing. Earlier this week a number of backbenchers, including Tony Abbott, told the prime minister and the treasurer to back off negative gearing. Both John Howard and Peter Costello have both publicly advised against going there.
Morrison yesterday left negative gearing on the table. This morning he hasn’t taken it off the table but he’s certainly pushed it to a zone I’d call teetering on the edge. He’s said the government continues to do its homework on all the tax options (apart from a GST increase, which has already clattered to the floor) but he’s aware of the very great risks of messing with negative gearing concessions. In case we missed that, Morrison noted the dangers are very real.
There is also another report around picking up a theme first revealed by my colleague Lenore Taylor – who about a week ago reported the prime minister was attempting to stitch up an interim funding deal with the states on hospitals to stop premiers going berko during an election campaign about not having enough money to run their health systems.
Morrison was asked this morning about the status of this deal. He noted that sort of report is premature.
Some important context here. Morrison has been for some period of time saying the states need to fix their own budgetary problems rather than rely on Canberra doling out the cash for services. He’s made it abundantly clear he wants the states to sort this out, not the commonwealth – a rather brave stance in the Humphrey Appleby sense. From what he’s said publicly, I think it entirely safe to assume the treasurer would not be on board with ‘Operation Shut Up the States’. This morning he’s indicated all this remains very much work in progress.
Scott Morrison:
You shouldn’t assume there is a settled position.
Updated
at 10.24pm GMT
9.13pm GMT
21:13
Chris Bowen, on Radio National Breakfast.
I was surprised [the BIS Shrapnel report] wasn’t predicting a locust plague.
9.11pm GMT
21:11
Sticking with negative gearing, the ABC’s Michael Brissenden would like to know who commissioned this BIS Shrapnel report.
Q: Who commissioned it?
Scott Morrison:
I have no idea who commissioned it.
Q: How can we trust it?
Because it’s BIS Shrapnel’s report. Everybody knows who BIS Shrapnel are. Are you suggesting BIS Shrapnel is not a credible agency?
The shadow finance minister, Tony Burke, on Sky News.
If the government wants to wave a document around that’s clearly different to Labor’s policy then we’ve completely descended to vaudeville.
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, on ABC Radio National Breakfast.
If they are trying to model Labor’s policy, they’ve got the basic facts wrong.
Updated
at 10.25pm GMT
8.56pm GMT
20:56
Hello, it's Thursday
Good morning good people and welcome to Thursday, the final sitting day for the week. Many in the building will be recovering from a knees up last night marking the 20th anniversary of the election of the Howard government.
Gabrielle Chan was at the nostalgia fest and has filed a brilliant fly-on-the-wall account of proceedings. Unfortunate, given the events of yesterday, leaks and police investigations and all that, that Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott found themselves seated together at the top table.
Gabrielle Chan:
Turnbull and Abbott sat within range but there was no interaction after the first handshake. No eye contact. It was like having the divorced parents at the same wedding table.
I’ll come back to last night’s event once we are up and running. Right now, all the action in the early morning political news cycle is around a new BIS Shrapnel report which is critical of changes to negative gearing.
According to the Financial Review the BIS Shrapnel report claims Labor’s negative gearing plans will increase rents by an average of 10%, or $2,600 a year, depress new home construction by 4% and shrink gross domestic product by $19bn a year. The Australian characterises the paper as bombshell modelling.
But a couple of significant caveats. 1. No one knows who commissioned this modelling. 2. Labor says the scenarios modelled are not Labor’s policy scenarios.
But given it’s been a ragged week for the government, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, has grabbed the spreadsheet warriors at BIS Shrapnel and given them a great big bear hug. The treasurer has been on the ABC and held a press conference afterwards at 7.30am. This new report, Morrison noted, is a “very damning indictment on Labor’s policy”.
[Labor’s policy] will drag growth, it will drag growth backwards.
We will never drag growth backwards on Politics Live. We are relentlessly forward types. Our readers are forward types too, and I’ve created the opportunity for forward marching by throwing open today’s comments thread. Go early, go hard.
Magic Mike and I are also up and about on the twits. He’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo
Today’s motto? Live large – but don’t make yourself the subject of police interest. Here comes Thursday.
Updated
at 9.36pm GMT