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| Ben Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' – campaign live | Ben Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.50am GMT | |
| 00:50 | |
| Lauren Gambino | |
| An ebullient Hillary Clinton declared Her sting of Super Tuesday victories “one of the history books,” during a rally in NYC on Wednesday. | |
| Though Clinton stopped short of claiming the Democratic nomination, it was clear her focus was the general election battle ahead. | |
| “If we do what we must in this election to bring out a positive message of what we can do together, who we stand for and what we stand for, we will go into the November election with the wind at our back,” Clinton told the crowd, tens of thousands deep, at the Javits Center in New York. “And if I’m so fortunate to be your president, we will work together to make it true.” | |
| During her remarks, Clinton reprised her call for more “love and kindness”, and promising to “wage a campaign that is about the future”. | |
| Later this week, Clinton said she will lay out a jobs agenda during a stop in Detroit, one of the cities hit hardest by the decline of the auto industry. | |
| “Don’t let anybody ever tell you we can’t make things in America anymore,” she said. She will also travel to Flint, Michigan, for CNN’s Democratic Debate on Sunday. Michigan votes on Tuesday. | |
| Clinton’s remarks were preceded by a string of introduction from local union leaders and members, as well as from NYC mayor Bill de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. The speakers focused on general election, one in which Clinton is the inexorable nominee. One union representative painted the presidential race as a choice between “hate and hope”. | |
| Though Clinton made oblique references to Donald Trump, she let her surrogates call him out by name. Governor Cuomo mimicked Trump, a constituent of his, during his introduction. | |
| “Don’t worry, the wall is a beautiful wall!” he said, changing his voice to imitate Trump. | |
| The New York Democratic primary, with 247 delegates up for grabs, will be held on 19 April. The few polls that have been done here show Clinton, who served as the state’s senator for eight years, maintaining a sizable lead over Sanders. | |
| 12.15am GMT | 12.15am GMT |
| 00:15 | 00:15 |
| Sabrina Siddiqui | Sabrina Siddiqui |
| Marco Rubio arrived at the West Miami city commission at roughly 9:30 a.m. this morning to cast his ballot for the Florida primary’s early voting. Wearing a suit with light blue collar shirt and red tie, Rubio was accompanied by his wife Jeanette, who also voted. | Marco Rubio arrived at the West Miami city commission at roughly 9:30 a.m. this morning to cast his ballot for the Florida primary’s early voting. Wearing a suit with light blue collar shirt and red tie, Rubio was accompanied by his wife Jeanette, who also voted. |
| Waiting for Rubio was Rebeca Sosa, his longtime friend who was the local mayor when he ran for the West Miami city commission in 1998. He greeted her with a big hug and held her hand while exchanging a few words that were inaudible to the pool. | Waiting for Rubio was Rebeca Sosa, his longtime friend who was the local mayor when he ran for the West Miami city commission in 1998. He greeted her with a big hug and held her hand while exchanging a few words that were inaudible to the pool. |
| Rubio did not say anything to the pool as he walked into the polling center, and the pool was not allowed to go inside. The station manager aggressively kept the press at bay, saying there were other voters who needed to get in and out of the building in peace. The pool watched from the doorway and could not see Rubio actually cast his ballot - although as he was filling out his paperwork it became clear he did not have his ID and a staffer rushed Rubio’s wallet over to him to quickly resolve the matter. | Rubio did not say anything to the pool as he walked into the polling center, and the pool was not allowed to go inside. The station manager aggressively kept the press at bay, saying there were other voters who needed to get in and out of the building in peace. The pool watched from the doorway and could not see Rubio actually cast his ballot - although as he was filling out his paperwork it became clear he did not have his ID and a staffer rushed Rubio’s wallet over to him to quickly resolve the matter. |
| As he returned to his car, Rubio stopped to field two quick questions from local cameras. | As he returned to his car, Rubio stopped to field two quick questions from local cameras. |
| Q: Who’d you vote for? | Q: Who’d you vote for? |
| “I voted for Marco Rubio - what an incredible honor to be able to vote for myself today here in the place where I started my career in West Miami. Literally standing outside in the sidewalk is where my career began in elected office so it’s an incredible privilege and honor to be able to vote for myself for president just a few blocks from where I grew up.” | “I voted for Marco Rubio - what an incredible honor to be able to vote for myself today here in the place where I started my career in West Miami. Literally standing outside in the sidewalk is where my career began in elected office so it’s an incredible privilege and honor to be able to vote for myself for president just a few blocks from where I grew up.” |
| With that, Rubio was ushered to his car after a stop that lasted a total of 15 minutes. | With that, Rubio was ushered to his car after a stop that lasted a total of 15 minutes. |
| 10.55pm GMT | 10.55pm GMT |
| 22:55 | 22:55 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Ohio governor John Kasich has picked up a crucial endorsement from Gregory Caruso. | Ohio governor John Kasich has picked up a crucial endorsement from Gregory Caruso. |
| You know - #HotDebateGuy. | You know - #HotDebateGuy. |
| The real winner of tonight's debate: the beefcake over Jake Tapper's shoulder. pic.twitter.com/K8uY7UtAk4 | The real winner of tonight's debate: the beefcake over Jake Tapper's shoulder. pic.twitter.com/K8uY7UtAk4 |
| Caruso became a social media sensation after being seated over Jake Tapper’s right shoulder during a presidential debate on CNN, largely due to his hotness. At the time, the self-described fan of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan said that he was undecided in the Republican presidential contest, but the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s frontrunner has pushed Caruso into Kasich’s corner. | Caruso became a social media sensation after being seated over Jake Tapper’s right shoulder during a presidential debate on CNN, largely due to his hotness. At the time, the self-described fan of George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan said that he was undecided in the Republican presidential contest, but the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s frontrunner has pushed Caruso into Kasich’s corner. |
| “John Kasich has proven, time and time again, that he is the only true presidential candidate among the Republican nominees,” Caruso writes for Time, which has taken to publishing the endorsements of whomever catches the Internet’s fancy for a fleeting moment. “The Ohio governor is the most experienced, and he is the only adult in the pack. He also has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton.” | “John Kasich has proven, time and time again, that he is the only true presidential candidate among the Republican nominees,” Caruso writes for Time, which has taken to publishing the endorsements of whomever catches the Internet’s fancy for a fleeting moment. “The Ohio governor is the most experienced, and he is the only adult in the pack. He also has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton.” |
| After calling Trump “a man of empty promises” and lambasting Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for following in his vulgarian footsteps, Caruso calls Kasich the candidate who “represents the party of the future.” | After calling Trump “a man of empty promises” and lambasting Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for following in his vulgarian footsteps, Caruso calls Kasich the candidate who “represents the party of the future.” |
| The Kasich campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Caruso did not respond to our Facebook friend request. | The Kasich campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Caruso did not respond to our Facebook friend request. |
| 10.34pm GMT | 10.34pm GMT |
| 22:34 | 22:34 |
| Richard Wolffe | Richard Wolffe |
| It’s time for some cold hard truths in this presidential election, writes the Guardian’s Richard Wolffe. | It’s time for some cold hard truths in this presidential election, writes the Guardian’s Richard Wolffe. |
| Here’s an ice cold one: winning a landslide victory in the mighty state of Vermont is not a foundation for success. Especially if Vermont has been your home since the Jurassic age of politics. | Here’s an ice cold one: winning a landslide victory in the mighty state of Vermont is not a foundation for success. Especially if Vermont has been your home since the Jurassic age of politics. |
| Here’s another: if you hold a victory rally before most of the states have been called, you’re not fooling anyone. When your victorious supporters have emptied the hall before the TV pundits have barely warmed up, you’re actually throwing a consolation party. | Here’s another: if you hold a victory rally before most of the states have been called, you’re not fooling anyone. When your victorious supporters have emptied the hall before the TV pundits have barely warmed up, you’re actually throwing a consolation party. |
| Bernie Sanders has built his impressively insurgent campaign on the premise that he’s a truth-teller. On Tuesday night, he repeated the commonplace belief that climate change is not a hoax (as many Republicans argue), and that the science is clear. On that basis, it’s only a matter of time before Sanders stops perpetuating his own hoax and looks at the data of the delegate count. | Bernie Sanders has built his impressively insurgent campaign on the premise that he’s a truth-teller. On Tuesday night, he repeated the commonplace belief that climate change is not a hoax (as many Republicans argue), and that the science is clear. On that basis, it’s only a matter of time before Sanders stops perpetuating his own hoax and looks at the data of the delegate count. |
| Related: The cold, hard truth: it's game over for Bernie Sanders | Richard Wolffe | Related: The cold, hard truth: it's game over for Bernie Sanders | Richard Wolffe |
| 10.10pm GMT | 10.10pm GMT |
| 22:10 | 22:10 |
| Tom Dart | Tom Dart |
| Texas senator Ted Cruz may have taken the state on Super Tuesday, but Trump’s wins along the Texan border prove he hasn’t been shunned by Latinos despite controversial immigration plan, writes the Guardian’s Tom Dart in Laredo, Texas: | Texas senator Ted Cruz may have taken the state on Super Tuesday, but Trump’s wins along the Texan border prove he hasn’t been shunned by Latinos despite controversial immigration plan, writes the Guardian’s Tom Dart in Laredo, Texas: |
| A candidate who has described Mexicans as rapists and criminals and whose core immigration plan is to make Mexico pay for a giant wall ought not to prosper on the southern border. Yet Donald Trump was embraced on Tuesday by voters in America’s most Hispanic city. | A candidate who has described Mexicans as rapists and criminals and whose core immigration plan is to make Mexico pay for a giant wall ought not to prosper on the southern border. Yet Donald Trump was embraced on Tuesday by voters in America’s most Hispanic city. |
| Trump won almost 35% of the Republican primary vote in Webb County, where Laredo is the county seat, comfortably ahead of Marco Rubio (28.4%) and Ted Cruz (28.2%), the Hispanic senator from Texas who finished first in the state overall. | Trump won almost 35% of the Republican primary vote in Webb County, where Laredo is the county seat, comfortably ahead of Marco Rubio (28.4%) and Ted Cruz (28.2%), the Hispanic senator from Texas who finished first in the state overall. |
| Despite the limited GOP voter pool, it is notable – and jarring – that Trump should not only triumph here but generally perform better in border counties than in the Texas interior, where Cruz was in command. After some small-scale polling at the Nevada caucuses, Tuesday’s outcome provided harder evidence that Trump has not been shunned by conservative Latinos. He may even have inspired them into action: he won more votes in Webb County than were cast in its primary in total in 2012. | Despite the limited GOP voter pool, it is notable – and jarring – that Trump should not only triumph here but generally perform better in border counties than in the Texas interior, where Cruz was in command. After some small-scale polling at the Nevada caucuses, Tuesday’s outcome provided harder evidence that Trump has not been shunned by conservative Latinos. He may even have inspired them into action: he won more votes in Webb County than were cast in its primary in total in 2012. |
| Related: Trump dominates in Texas border town where proposed wall would be built | Related: Trump dominates in Texas border town where proposed wall would be built |
| 9.46pm GMT | 9.46pm GMT |
| 21:46 | 21:46 |
| Dan Roberts | Dan Roberts |
| Clinton’s Super Tuesday successes – notably with African Americans in the south – risk reducing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential run to a protest movement, reports the Guardian’s Dan Roberts from Burlington, Vermont: | Clinton’s Super Tuesday successes – notably with African Americans in the south – risk reducing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential run to a protest movement, reports the Guardian’s Dan Roberts from Burlington, Vermont: |
| Bernie Sanders came down to earth with a bump. In fact, the elderly 737 charter jet that has carried him – and the hopes of a generation of liberal Americans – through a surprisingly gripping Democratic nomination race hit the tarmac on Saturday night with a sickening crunch. | Bernie Sanders came down to earth with a bump. In fact, the elderly 737 charter jet that has carried him – and the hopes of a generation of liberal Americans – through a surprisingly gripping Democratic nomination race hit the tarmac on Saturday night with a sickening crunch. |
| Hard landings are as common in politics as aviation. “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Tonight, we lost,” the senator told reporters at the foot of the aircraft steps in Minnesota shortly after learning of his heavy defeat to Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary that night. | Hard landings are as common in politics as aviation. “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Tonight, we lost,” the senator told reporters at the foot of the aircraft steps in Minnesota shortly after learning of his heavy defeat to Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina primary that night. |
| Yet the scale of that loss – a 74-to-26-point drubbing that featured double the margin by which Sanders had beaten Clinton in New Hampshire on 9 February – left his campaign temporarily speechless. | Yet the scale of that loss – a 74-to-26-point drubbing that featured double the margin by which Sanders had beaten Clinton in New Hampshire on 9 February – left his campaign temporarily speechless. |
| Related: After southern setbacks can Bernie Sanders' revolution just be white? | Related: After southern setbacks can Bernie Sanders' revolution just be white? |
| 9.28pm GMT | 9.28pm GMT |
| 21:28 | 21:28 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| Hillary Clinton held off an insurgent Bernie Sanders in last night’s Super Tuesday nominating contests, but how did she perform against... Hillary Clinton? | Hillary Clinton held off an insurgent Bernie Sanders in last night’s Super Tuesday nominating contests, but how did she perform against... Hillary Clinton? |
| The data geniuses here at the Guardian have taken a peek at how the former secretary of state performed in comparison to her own campaign eight years ago - and like Virginia Slims, she’s come a long way, baby. | The data geniuses here at the Guardian have taken a peek at how the former secretary of state performed in comparison to her own campaign eight years ago - and like Virginia Slims, she’s come a long way, baby. |
| With the noted exception of Sanders’ native Vermont and adjacent Massachusetts, Clinton performed much better in 2016 than she did in 2008 in some of the most crucial Super Tuesday states, particularly in Georgia, where the one-time New York senator did not have to compete with Barack Obama for the support of the state’s large African-American population. | With the noted exception of Sanders’ native Vermont and adjacent Massachusetts, Clinton performed much better in 2016 than she did in 2008 in some of the most crucial Super Tuesday states, particularly in Georgia, where the one-time New York senator did not have to compete with Barack Obama for the support of the state’s large African-American population. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.18pm GMT | at 10.18pm GMT |
| 9.05pm GMT | 9.05pm GMT |
| 21:05 | 21:05 |
| Where will Ben Carson's supporters go now? | Where will Ben Carson's supporters go now? |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Ben Carson’s slightly confusing message to his supporters has been interpreted by many as a signal from the retired neurosurgeon that he will soon drop out of the race. | Ben Carson’s slightly confusing message to his supporters has been interpreted by many as a signal from the retired neurosurgeon that he will soon drop out of the race. |
| At a national level, Carson isn’t quite so irrelevant as his detractors made him out to be - polling averages put him at 9%, slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. The problem for Carson is geography; there aren’t any states where the candidate’s support is concentrated enough to boost his delegate numbers (which currently stand at a paltry 8 compared to Trump’s 319). | At a national level, Carson isn’t quite so irrelevant as his detractors made him out to be - polling averages put him at 9%, slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. The problem for Carson is geography; there aren’t any states where the candidate’s support is concentrated enough to boost his delegate numbers (which currently stand at a paltry 8 compared to Trump’s 319). |
| The important question going forward is what Carson supporters will do if he has dropped out. It’s hard to know because very few polls ask respondents about their second-choice candidates, and those that do rarely have cross tabs to really understand where voters might shift from and to. But they still offer some interesting clues. | The important question going forward is what Carson supporters will do if he has dropped out. It’s hard to know because very few polls ask respondents about their second-choice candidates, and those that do rarely have cross tabs to really understand where voters might shift from and to. But they still offer some interesting clues. |
| The most recent poll to ask Republican voters about their second choices was conducted by Fox News between 15 and 17 February 2016. It found that only 11% of Republicans chose Donald Trump as their second choice (which supports various theories that Trump is reaching his ceiling of support) while Rubio was second choice for 27% of voters and Ted Cruz was the plan B of 20%. Given that Carson’s support base is wealthier and more likely to have a college degree, it’s much more likely that they’ll shift towards Rubio or possibly even Cruz than becoming Trump voters. Still though, the fact remains that there aren’t enough Carson supporters to make an immediate difference to either the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. | The most recent poll to ask Republican voters about their second choices was conducted by Fox News between 15 and 17 February 2016. It found that only 11% of Republicans chose Donald Trump as their second choice (which supports various theories that Trump is reaching his ceiling of support) while Rubio was second choice for 27% of voters and Ted Cruz was the plan B of 20%. Given that Carson’s support base is wealthier and more likely to have a college degree, it’s much more likely that they’ll shift towards Rubio or possibly even Cruz than becoming Trump voters. Still though, the fact remains that there aren’t enough Carson supporters to make an immediate difference to either the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. |
| 8.41pm GMT | 8.41pm GMT |
| 20:41 | 20:41 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. | We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. |
| Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. | Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. |
| 8.23pm GMT | 8.23pm GMT |
| 20:23 | 20:23 |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. | Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. |
| So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. | So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. |
| To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. | To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. |
| Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. | Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. |