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| Ben Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' – campaign live | Ben Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.05pm GMT | |
| 21:05 | |
| Where will Ben Carson's supporters go now? | |
| Mona Chalabi | |
| Ben Carson’s slightly confusing message to his supporters has been interpreted by many as a signal from the retired neurosurgeon that he will soon drop out of the race. | |
| At a national level, Carson isn’t quite so irrelevant as his detractors made him out to be - polling averages put him at 9%, slightly ahead of John Kasich and less than 10 percentage points behind Marco Rubio. The problem for Carson is geography; there aren’t any states where the candidate’s support is concentrated enough to boost his delegate numbers (which currently stand at a paltry 8 compared to Trump’s 319). | |
| The important question going forward is what Carson supporters will do if he has dropped out. It’s hard to know because very few polls ask respondents about their second-choice candidates, and those that do rarely have cross tabs to really understand where voters might shift from and to. But they still offer some interesting clues. | |
| The most recent poll to ask Republican voters about their second choices was conducted by Fox News between 15 and 17 February 2016. It found that only 11% of Republicans chose Donald Trump as their second choice (which supports various theories that Trump is reaching his ceiling of support) while Rubio was second choice for 27% of voters and Ted Cruz was the plan B of 20%. Given that Carson’s support base is wealthier and more likely to have a college degree, it’s much more likely that they’ll shift towards Rubio or possibly even Cruz than becoming Trump voters. Still though, the fact remains that there aren’t enough Carson supporters to make an immediate difference to either the Cruz or Rubio campaigns. | |
| 8.41pm GMT | 8.41pm GMT |
| 20:41 | 20:41 |
| Scott Bixby | Scott Bixby |
| We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. | We’re old enough to remember when Ben Carson was the cause of a massive candidate pile-up on a debate stage in New Hampshire. |
| Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. | Ben Carson was the first to falter, resulting in him awkwardly lingering at the side of the set, where he was soon joined by Donald Trump. Meanwhile, John Kasich was nearly forgotten. |
| 8.23pm GMT | 8.23pm GMT |
| 20:23 | 20:23 |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. | Tuesday was anything but super for Marco Rubio. Although the Florida senator won his first state in the Minnesota caucus, just 38 delegates were available there - and in more important states like Alabama and Texas, Rubio failed to meet the 20% threshold he needed to get any delegates at all. |
| So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. | So, is it all over for Rubio? Probably. |
| To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. | To get the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rubio would need to average around 50% in the remaining primaries. Polling suggests he’s nowhere near that. Take Florida for example where 99 delegates are available in a winner-takes-all voting system: Real Clear Politics polling averages currently suggest that Trump has a 20 percentage point lead on Rubio in Florida. It’s a similar story in Ohio where 66 delegates are available and where polls show Rubio getting just 13% of support. |
| Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. | Technically, Rubio’s not done yet - but his chances of being nominee are now so slim you need a calculator and pair of binoculars to see them. |
| 8.03pm GMT | 8.03pm GMT |
| 20:03 | 20:03 |
| Less than 24 hours ago, Carson called on his rivals to join him this week for a meeting about “civility” in the presidential race. What changed? He made a downbeat appearance before supporters at the end of Super Tuesday, blaming “the system” for marginalizing his candidacy but insisting that he would stay in the race on behalf of “millions of supporters on social media.” | Less than 24 hours ago, Carson called on his rivals to join him this week for a meeting about “civility” in the presidential race. What changed? He made a downbeat appearance before supporters at the end of Super Tuesday, blaming “the system” for marginalizing his candidacy but insisting that he would stay in the race on behalf of “millions of supporters on social media.” |
| At the weekend, Carson accused Trump of buying votes, and last week he made news for asserting that Barack Obama was “raised white.” | At the weekend, Carson accused Trump of buying votes, and last week he made news for asserting that Barack Obama was “raised white.” |
| 7.13pm GMT | 7.13pm GMT |
| 19:13 | 19:13 |
| Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' | Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' |
| The retired neurosurgeon remains “deeply committed to my home nation, America,” his statement says. | The retired neurosurgeon remains “deeply committed to my home nation, America,” his statement says. |
| Speech tomorrow at the conservative political action conference. | Speech tomorrow at the conservative political action conference. |
| Carson's statement to supporters: pic.twitter.com/LfrILLN7IY | Carson's statement to supporters: pic.twitter.com/LfrILLN7IY |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.18pm GMT | at 7.18pm GMT |
| 7.05pm GMT | 7.05pm GMT |
| 19:05 | 19:05 |
| A Republican speaker past and the Republican speaker present are hosting a live chat on Facebook. Right now Newt Gingrich is expounding on the dynamic between committee chairmen and the House leadership. Gingrich praises Paul Ryan for shifting the way the House does business in the last four months. Will Ryan get a word in edgewise? | A Republican speaker past and the Republican speaker present are hosting a live chat on Facebook. Right now Newt Gingrich is expounding on the dynamic between committee chairmen and the House leadership. Gingrich praises Paul Ryan for shifting the way the House does business in the last four months. Will Ryan get a word in edgewise? |
| Live now on @Facebook with @SpeakerRyan. Ask us questions here: https://t.co/MfZ3A4tjn5 pic.twitter.com/WCmElCk8U9 | Live now on @Facebook with @SpeakerRyan. Ask us questions here: https://t.co/MfZ3A4tjn5 pic.twitter.com/WCmElCk8U9 |
| It would be interesting to hear these gentlemen discuss Trump, whom Gingrich has singled out for praise and who said last night that as president he would get along with Ryan or Ryan would “pay.” | It would be interesting to hear these gentlemen discuss Trump, whom Gingrich has singled out for praise and who said last night that as president he would get along with Ryan or Ryan would “pay.” |
| 7.00pm GMT | 7.00pm GMT |
| 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Carson will not attend Thursday debate – report | Carson will not attend Thursday debate – report |
| The Washington Post reports that Ben Carson will not attend tomorrow’s Republican presidential debate in Detroit – and that Carson seems to have new thinking on his viability since saying last night that he “will remain” in the race: | The Washington Post reports that Ben Carson will not attend tomorrow’s Republican presidential debate in Detroit – and that Carson seems to have new thinking on his viability since saying last night that he “will remain” in the race: |
| SCOOP: BEN CARSON will tell supporters today that he does not see “path forward,” will not attend Thursday debate https://t.co/gvpB5pkAoe | SCOOP: BEN CARSON will tell supporters today that he does not see “path forward,” will not attend Thursday debate https://t.co/gvpB5pkAoe |
| From the report: | From the report: |
| Carson, however, will not formally suspend his campaign. Instead, the Republicans said, he has decided to make a speech about his political future on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, just outside of Washington. | Carson, however, will not formally suspend his campaign. Instead, the Republicans said, he has decided to make a speech about his political future on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, just outside of Washington. |
| Tantalizing. Dana Bash reported on CNN last night that the GOP was trying to get Carson out of the presidential race and into the Florida senate race. Did it work? | Tantalizing. Dana Bash reported on CNN last night that the GOP was trying to get Carson out of the presidential race and into the Florida senate race. Did it work? |
| Carson says he doesn't see a path to the nomination but in fairness his eyes were probably closed when he said that | Carson says he doesn't see a path to the nomination but in fairness his eyes were probably closed when he said that |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.14pm GMT | at 7.14pm GMT |
| 6.48pm GMT | 6.48pm GMT |
| 18:48 | 18:48 |
| The Ted Cruz campaign reports a personal-best fundraising month for February of $12m. Nowhere near Sanders numbers but enough to keep the lights on: | The Ted Cruz campaign reports a personal-best fundraising month for February of $12m. Nowhere near Sanders numbers but enough to keep the lights on: |
| Thank you! Biggest fundraising month for @teamtedcruz! Nearly 12M for the month of February. 225K donations for an ave of $52 per donation. | Thank you! Biggest fundraising month for @teamtedcruz! Nearly 12M for the month of February. 225K donations for an ave of $52 per donation. |
| 6.45pm GMT | 6.45pm GMT |
| 18:45 | 18:45 |
| OK, calm down with the Romney speculation... | OK, calm down with the Romney speculation... |
| Romney is not getting in this race, sources telling us @abc | Romney is not getting in this race, sources telling us @abc |
| Source close to Romney on his speech tomorrow: "This is not an endorsement or announcement of candidacy." | Source close to Romney on his speech tomorrow: "This is not an endorsement or announcement of candidacy." |
| 6.09pm GMT | 6.09pm GMT |
| 18:09 | 18:09 |
| Romney to deliver speech on 2016 race | Romney to deliver speech on 2016 race |
| What does the 2012 Republican nominee have to say? He’s spent the last week slamming Trump on Twitter. Now the Romney shop has e-blasted reporters to announce the speech. | What does the 2012 Republican nominee have to say? He’s spent the last week slamming Trump on Twitter. Now the Romney shop has e-blasted reporters to announce the speech. |
| NEW: @MittRomney will deliver speech on "state of the 2016 presidential race" tomorrow morning in Utah... #decision2016 | NEW: @MittRomney will deliver speech on "state of the 2016 presidential race" tomorrow morning in Utah... #decision2016 |
| Remember when Romney dropped out of the race because the institutional force of Jeb Bush’s campaign was too intimidating? Here’s a sample of Romney’s view of Trump: | Remember when Romney dropped out of the race because the institutional force of Jeb Bush’s campaign was too intimidating? Here’s a sample of Romney’s view of Trump: |
| A disqualifying & disgusting response by @realDonaldTrump to the KKK. His coddling of repugnant bigotry is not in the character of America. | A disqualifying & disgusting response by @realDonaldTrump to the KKK. His coddling of repugnant bigotry is not in the character of America. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 6.15pm GMT | at 6.15pm GMT |
| 6.06pm GMT | 6.06pm GMT |
| 18:06 | 18:06 |
| Sanders wallops Clinton in Feburary fundraising | Sanders wallops Clinton in Feburary fundraising |
| Once again, underdog Bernie Sanders has far outrun Hillary Clinton in fundraising. Sanders raised a smashing $42m in February, his campaign said earlier this week. | Once again, underdog Bernie Sanders has far outrun Hillary Clinton in fundraising. Sanders raised a smashing $42m in February, his campaign said earlier this week. |
| The Clinton camp has just released its February number and it’s just over 70% of the Sanders figure: | The Clinton camp has just released its February number and it’s just over 70% of the Sanders figure: |
| The Latest: Clinton camp says it raised $30 million in Feb., less than Sanders: https://t.co/TXlfD0ZcAO | The Latest: Clinton camp says it raised $30 million in Feb., less than Sanders: https://t.co/TXlfD0ZcAO |
| 5.58pm GMT | 5.58pm GMT |
| 17:58 | 17:58 |
| Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, a Republican whose approval rating has variously been described as “amazing” and “transcendent,” has declared that he will never vote for Donald Trump. | Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, a Republican whose approval rating has variously been described as “amazing” and “transcendent,” has declared that he will never vote for Donald Trump. |
| Massachusetts GOP Gov Baker on Trump: “I’m not going to vote for him in November.” | Massachusetts GOP Gov Baker on Trump: “I’m not going to vote for him in November.” |
| 5.40pm GMT | 5.40pm GMT |
| 17:40 | 17:40 |
| Senator Marco Rubio has voted early in Florida: | Senator Marco Rubio has voted early in Florida: |
| This morning Jeanette & I early voted in West Miami. Find your early voting location here: https://t.co/x1msozQa8F pic.twitter.com/TiqZPFtvxz | This morning Jeanette & I early voted in West Miami. Find your early voting location here: https://t.co/x1msozQa8F pic.twitter.com/TiqZPFtvxz |
| Rubio cast his ballot for Florida primary at West Miami City Hall, where his career in elected office began as city commissioner. | Rubio cast his ballot for Florida primary at West Miami City Hall, where his career in elected office began as city commissioner. |
| Some Florida counties opened polling sites for early voting last week and the remainder open for early voting on 5 March aka Saturday. More than 300,000 Republicans have already submitted absentee ballots in Florida, where Real Clear Politics polling averages have Trump up by about 20. Rubio has been performing well with voters who tell exit pollsters that they decided late. | Some Florida counties opened polling sites for early voting last week and the remainder open for early voting on 5 March aka Saturday. More than 300,000 Republicans have already submitted absentee ballots in Florida, where Real Clear Politics polling averages have Trump up by about 20. Rubio has been performing well with voters who tell exit pollsters that they decided late. |