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Trump won Virginia. But that doesn’t mean he’s got it locked down for November. Trump won Virginia. But that doesn’t mean he’s got it locked down for November.
(about 9 hours later)
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won Tuesday night in Virginia. But the way they won should make Democrats happy and Republicans nervous. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won Tuesday night in Virginia. But the details of their victories should make Democrats happy and Republicans nervous.
The state is a crucial battleground in November, and to win, Republicans need the suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia. But in vote-rich Fairfax and Loudoun counties, Sen. Marco Rubio was the winner. Ohio Gov. John Kasich had his own strong current of support. The state is a crucial battleground for both parties in November. Most analysts believe that the winning candidate will be whoever dominates in the voter-richsuburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia.
Former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie narrowly won Loudoun in a 2014 Senate campaign against Sen. Mark R. Warner (D) — yet he still lost because of the crush of Democratic voters in the rest of Northern Virginia. Trump lost Loudoun to Rubio by double digits. Together, Rubio and Kasich took a majority of Republican voters in the county. In Fairfax, Loudoun and — narrowly — Prince William counties, Sen. Marco Rubio out-performed Trump on Super Tuesday, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich had his own strong current of support.
[See full Super Tuesday results here][See full Super Tuesday results here]
“Ground zero now is all those Rubio and Kasich voters in Northern Virginia,” said Dan Scandling, a longtime aide to former congressman Frank R. Wolf. “Ground zero now is all those Rubio and Kasich voters in Northern Virginia,” said Dan Scandling, a longtime aide to former Republican congressman Frank R. Wolf.
If Trump is the GOP nominee, he said, “where are they going to be in November? Do they stay with the party? Do they vote Democratic? Or do they just not vote in the presidential race?”If Trump is the GOP nominee, he said, “where are they going to be in November? Do they stay with the party? Do they vote Democratic? Or do they just not vote in the presidential race?”
Exit polling suggests the latter two options are possible. A majority of Virginia Republican voters — 55-percent— said they would be dissatisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee. A recent survey from Christopher Newport University found that a majority of Virginia voters would not vote for a candidate calling for a ban on Muslims entering the country, as Trump has. Exit polling suggests the latter two options are possible. A majority of Virginia Republican voters — 55 percent— said they would be dissatisfied with Trump as their party’s nominee.
[What Virginia says to the rest of the country][What Virginia says to the rest of the country]
Several Republican voters told The Post on Tuesday that they probably would not vote for Trump in November. In addition, several Republican voters told The Post on Tuesday that they probably would not vote for Trump in November. Dario Sotomayor, 30, a Rubio voter in Arlington, said that if Trump gets the nomination, he would actively work for the Democratic nominee.
Dario Sotomayor, 30, a Rubio voter in Arlington, said that if Trump gets the nomination, he would actively work for the Democratic nominee.
“Trump is forgetting where [his family] came from. He’s forgotten the roots of this country,” said Sotomayor, a Texas-born businessman from a Mexican family. “He’s inciting everyone into thinking racism is right.”“Trump is forgetting where [his family] came from. He’s forgotten the roots of this country,” said Sotomayor, a Texas-born businessman from a Mexican family. “He’s inciting everyone into thinking racism is right.”
[Love him or hate him, Trump is what brought many Va. voters to the polls]
By contrast, 78 percent of Democratic voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton as their party’s nominee. Her victory in the state crossed all demographic lines: She won among men and women, among low-income and high-income voters and in every region but the rural west. She also won with every age group except 17-to-29-year-olds.By contrast, 78 percent of Democratic voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton as their party’s nominee. Her victory in the state crossed all demographic lines: She won among men and women, among low-income and high-income voters and in every region but the rural west. She also won with every age group except 17-to-29-year-olds.
Republicans officials said that the high Republican turnout was a good sign. “The enthusiasm for the GOP in Virginia is overshadowing the Democrats here and across the Country,” John Whitbeck, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said in a statement. Republicans officials took heart in the high Republican turnout on primary day — twice as many voters as in 2008, the last non-incumbent presidential primary. “We just blew the Democrats’ numbers out of the water,” said state party chairman John Whitbeck. “It was a great night for us.”
But with nearly all precincts reporting Tuesday night, Clinton had received 497,581 votes. Trump got only 352,833. And some Clinton supporters were openly speculating that the surge in Republican votes came in part from Democrats, who will support their party’s nominee in the fall but chose to cast Republican ballots in Virginia’s open primary in an effort to impact the outcome of the GOP race. Democratic turnout, on the other hand, sank by a fifth.
[Love him or hate him, Trump is what brought many Va. voters to the polls]
But with nearly all precincts reporting Tuesday night, Clinton had received 497,581 votes, while Trump got 352,833. In Loudoun, where voters have backed the winning general-election candidate in every presidential race since 2000, Rubio and Kasich combined to win a majority of the Republican votes, and Trump lost to Rubio by double digits.
“To me, the most important and impressive story of the night so far is the breadth and diversity of the @HillaryClinton coalition in Virginia,” tweeted Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who advises a pro-Clinton super PAC.“To me, the most important and impressive story of the night so far is the breadth and diversity of the @HillaryClinton coalition in Virginia,” tweeted Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who advises a pro-Clinton super PAC.
Some Clinton supporters were openly speculating that the surge in Republican votes on Tuesday came in part from Democrats who plan to support their party’s nominee in the fall but chose to cast Republican ballots in Virginia’s open primary.
[Super Tuesday a nightmare for GOP establishment][Super Tuesday a nightmare for GOP establishment]
One bright spot for Trump: He essentially tied Rubio in Prince William, an increasingly diverse county that has been a bellwether in recent elections. Anti-immigrant sentiment runs high among Republicans there, and county board chairman Corey Stewart stood strongly behind the business mogul, chairing his statewide campaign. But again, Clinton got thousands more votes in Prince William than Trump did. One bright spot for Trump: He essentially tied Rubio in Prince William, an increasingly diverse county that — like Loudoun — has been a bellwether in recent elections. Anger over illegal immigration runs high among Republicans there, and county board chairman Corey Stewart stood strongly behind the business mogul, chairing his statewide campaign.
Former congressman Tom Davis, who is helping Kasich, said it was too early to write off a Trump alternative. “Trump is the only one who is likely to do anything about illegal immigration, and I think that definitely hits a nerve in Prince William County,” Stewart said.
“John Kasich could actually beat Hillary Clinton up here in November,” said Davis, who represented Fairfax. He also disputed the idea that Kasich cost Rubio a win in Virginia by splitting Northern Virginia’s anti-Trump vote. In 2014, U.S. Senate hopeful Mark Warner (D) narrowly lost Loudoun to Republican Ed GIllespie. But Warner beat Gillespie in Prince William and went on to win the state — and Stewart suggested Wednesday that Trump could forge a similar path to victory.
“At this point, we’re all on the same team,” Davis said, with the common goal of stopping Trump at the Republican convention. For that to happen, he said, Kasich needs to stay in the race until Ohio’s March 15 primary. At the same time, Clinton got thousands more primary votes in Prince William than Trump did.
“[Rubio] loses the bragging rights,” Davis conceded. “He can blame Kasich for bragging rights, if you want to.” Former congressman Tom Davis, who is helping Kasich, said it is still too early to assume Trump will be the party’s nominee.
“John Kasich could actually beat Hillary Clinton up here in November,” said Davis, who represented Fairfax while in Congress.
He also disputed the idea that Kasich cost Rubio a win in Virginia by splitting the anti-Trump vote. “At this point, we’re all on the same team,” Davis said, with the common goal of stopping Trump at the Republican convention. For that to happen, he maintained, Kasich needs to stay in the race until Ohio’s March 15 primary.
Stewart, meanwhile, argued that it’s “too hard to extrapolate the results of a primary to a general election. No poll, no exit poll of any kind can tell us how people are going to feel eight months from now.”