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| The data says: a Clinton-Trump presidential race looks even more likely | The data says: a Clinton-Trump presidential race looks even more likely |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were both the frontrunners of their respective parties before Super Tuesday and, despite a few polling surprises, the results in the states voting on 1 March have only served to cement those positions. | Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were both the frontrunners of their respective parties before Super Tuesday and, despite a few polling surprises, the results in the states voting on 1 March have only served to cement those positions. |
| The Democratic field | The Democratic field |
| It’s easy to get distracted by the number of states won but the results that truly matter are delegate counts. Bernie Sanders demonstrates this perfectly: he came first in four Super Tuesday states, three more than he was expected to. But what Sanders really needed to remain a viable candidate was to win just over half of the Democratic delegates that were available last night. He didn’t. | It’s easy to get distracted by the number of states won but the results that truly matter are delegate counts. Bernie Sanders demonstrates this perfectly: he came first in four Super Tuesday states, three more than he was expected to. But what Sanders really needed to remain a viable candidate was to win just over half of the Democratic delegates that were available last night. He didn’t. |
| Delegate counts are still being calculated, but at the time of writing Sanders had won an extra 260 delegates on Super Tuesday, while Clinton added 436 to her running total. As a result, the latest totals show the candidates finishing the night with 325 and 527 delegates, respectively. | Delegate counts are still being calculated, but at the time of writing Sanders had won an extra 260 delegates on Super Tuesday, while Clinton added 436 to her running total. As a result, the latest totals show the candidates finishing the night with 325 and 527 delegates, respectively. |
| The explanation for all this lies in delegate math. Democrats assign delegates in proportion to votes won; the delegates essentially act as middlemen, representing the preferences of voters at the national convention. Though Sanders came first in Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma, his margin of victory was less than 20 percentage points in every case (only his home state of Vermont was a landslide for him), meaning that he didn’t vastly increase his delegate total or make significant inroads into Clinton’s delegate lead. The Vermont senator also failed to win more than a third of the vote in Texas and Georgia – states that had a high number of delegates up for grabs. | The explanation for all this lies in delegate math. Democrats assign delegates in proportion to votes won; the delegates essentially act as middlemen, representing the preferences of voters at the national convention. Though Sanders came first in Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma, his margin of victory was less than 20 percentage points in every case (only his home state of Vermont was a landslide for him), meaning that he didn’t vastly increase his delegate total or make significant inroads into Clinton’s delegate lead. The Vermont senator also failed to win more than a third of the vote in Texas and Georgia – states that had a high number of delegates up for grabs. |
| However, public perceptions about a candidate’s viability matter too. The fact that Sanders beat expectations by coming first in four states might bolster his support if it means voters are less likely to feel like a vote for Sanders is a vote wasted. | However, public perceptions about a candidate’s viability matter too. The fact that Sanders beat expectations by coming first in four states might bolster his support if it means voters are less likely to feel like a vote for Sanders is a vote wasted. |
| Not all Democratic delegates know who they’ll be voting for at the national convention – some are unpledged. These individuals, known as superdelegates, attracted a lot of attention in the 2008 Democratic race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton because it was thought they might be able to determine the results. This time around, the majority of superdelegates (who are usually members of the DNC or other state and federal elected officials) have been won by Clinton, and they’re unlikely to shift their support between now and the convention. | Not all Democratic delegates know who they’ll be voting for at the national convention – some are unpledged. These individuals, known as superdelegates, attracted a lot of attention in the 2008 Democratic race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton because it was thought they might be able to determine the results. This time around, the majority of superdelegates (who are usually members of the DNC or other state and federal elected officials) have been won by Clinton, and they’re unlikely to shift their support between now and the convention. |
| The Republican field | The Republican field |
| There were also some surprises for those predicting Republican results from last night. Ted Cruz not only won Texas – a state that was looking touch-and-go according to polling averages – but he also finished 15 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, who finished in second place there. Cruz also came first in Oklahoma, despite polls suggesting he would come in third. But neither of those wins fundamentally changes the fact that Trump is the leading candidate for the Republican nomination. (And those Cruz wins certainly don’t change Marco Rubio’s poor performance on Super Tuesday, which mean that a Rubio defeat is now more a question of when rather than if.) | There were also some surprises for those predicting Republican results from last night. Ted Cruz not only won Texas – a state that was looking touch-and-go according to polling averages – but he also finished 15 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, who finished in second place there. Cruz also came first in Oklahoma, despite polls suggesting he would come in third. But neither of those wins fundamentally changes the fact that Trump is the leading candidate for the Republican nomination. (And those Cruz wins certainly don’t change Marco Rubio’s poor performance on Super Tuesday, which mean that a Rubio defeat is now more a question of when rather than if.) |
| The New York billionaire won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. The way that Republicans translate votes into delegates is more complex than the Democratic system because the rules vary from state to state: in some states it’s a winner-takes-all system, in others it’s proportional, and in places such as Texas it’s somewhere between the two. On the whole though, vote shares still matter and Trump did well on Super Tuesday – especially in Massachusetts, where he had the support of 49% of Republican primary voters. | |
| Clinton v Trump | Clinton v Trump |
| Ultimately Clinton and Trump are looking even bigger favorites to become the presidential nominees (the next big date in the election calendar is 15 March when Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio will hold primaries, and 367 Republican and 792 Democratic delegates will be at stake). It’s likely, but of course it’s not certain. | Ultimately Clinton and Trump are looking even bigger favorites to become the presidential nominees (the next big date in the election calendar is 15 March when Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio will hold primaries, and 367 Republican and 792 Democratic delegates will be at stake). It’s likely, but of course it’s not certain. |
| To become the Democratic nominee, a candidate needs to secure at least 2,382 out of 4,763 delegates. To become the Republican nominee, a candidate needs at least 1,237 out of 2,472 delegates. Both Clinton and Trump are on track to get those numbers, but even now that Super Tuesday is over only 24% of Democratic delegates and 30% of Republican delegates have been pledged. Candidates may yet say and do things that dramatically change their electability, and voters may yet change their minds. | To become the Democratic nominee, a candidate needs to secure at least 2,382 out of 4,763 delegates. To become the Republican nominee, a candidate needs at least 1,237 out of 2,472 delegates. Both Clinton and Trump are on track to get those numbers, but even now that Super Tuesday is over only 24% of Democratic delegates and 30% of Republican delegates have been pledged. Candidates may yet say and do things that dramatically change their electability, and voters may yet change their minds. |
| But it’s already tempting for analysts to fast-forward to 8 November. A CNN poll released on Tuesday asked 910 registered voters who they would pick in a hypothetical race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump – Clinton won 52%-44%. And betting markets give Hillary Clinton a 65% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election, according to Predictwise. |
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