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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| EU referendum: UK weaker outside EU, government to warn | EU referendum: UK weaker outside EU, government to warn |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The UK would be "weaker, less safe and worse off" outside the European Union, government analysis is set to conclude. | The UK would be "weaker, less safe and worse off" outside the European Union, government analysis is set to conclude. |
| The assessment, to be published later, comes as the campaign to remain in the EU seeks to shift voters' focus to what would happen if the UK left. | The assessment, to be published later, comes as the campaign to remain in the EU seeks to shift voters' focus to what would happen if the UK left. |
| Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said a Leave victory in the 23 June vote would see a "messy" divorce from the EU. | Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said a Leave victory in the 23 June vote would see a "messy" divorce from the EU. |
| Pro-exit Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has accused ministers of producing a "dodgy dossier". | Pro-exit Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has accused ministers of producing a "dodgy dossier". |
| Cabinet ministers are allowed to campaign freely on either side of the debate, but the official government position is in favour of staying in a reformed EU. | Cabinet ministers are allowed to campaign freely on either side of the debate, but the official government position is in favour of staying in a reformed EU. |
| In a speech in London, Mr Hammond said Britain would be locked in talks with the EU for two years after an exit, while "our competitors, including our EU competitors, forge ahead". | |
| He said there was no guarantee the UK could reach a deal within the two year limit, and talks could drag on for many years because there would be no "goodwill" from member states to help the UK get a deal. | |
| He claimed Leave campaigners had "deliberately avoided" sketching out what a post-exit trade deal would look like because there were no "credible" options that "come close to the deal we already have on the table" that had been negotiated by David Cameron. | |
| The official government analysis of UK membership of the EU is required by law under the EU Referendum Act, which paved the way for the in-out referendum on EU membership. | The official government analysis of UK membership of the EU is required by law under the EU Referendum Act, which paved the way for the in-out referendum on EU membership. |
| 'Analysis flawed' | |
| If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will have to negotiate a new trading relationship with what would then be a 27 member organisation, to allow British firms to sell goods and services to EU countries without being hit by penalties or sparking a trade war. | If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will have to negotiate a new trading relationship with what would then be a 27 member organisation, to allow British firms to sell goods and services to EU countries without being hit by penalties or sparking a trade war. |
| The government paper runs through examples of other countries, such as Norway, Switzerland and Canada, who have trade deals with the EU without being members - as well as the option of breaking free from the EU altogether and striking deals with individual countries through the World Trade Organisation. | The government paper runs through examples of other countries, such as Norway, Switzerland and Canada, who have trade deals with the EU without being members - as well as the option of breaking free from the EU altogether and striking deals with individual countries through the World Trade Organisation. |
| These scenarios have been mentioned by anti-EU campaigners in the past. | These scenarios have been mentioned by anti-EU campaigners in the past. |
| The government paper says they each carry serious risks for business - but Leave campaigners say the analysis is flawed because it does not consider the possibility of a bespoke trade deal between the UK and the EU, with no tariffs or trade barriers. | The government paper says they each carry serious risks for business - but Leave campaigners say the analysis is flawed because it does not consider the possibility of a bespoke trade deal between the UK and the EU, with no tariffs or trade barriers. |
| Four post exit options | Four post exit options |
| Iain Duncan Smith - one of five cabinet ministers campaigning in favour of a vote to leave the EU - said: "The truth is, we won't copy any other country's deal. | Iain Duncan Smith - one of five cabinet ministers campaigning in favour of a vote to leave the EU - said: "The truth is, we won't copy any other country's deal. |
| "We will have a settlement on our own terms - and one that will return control of our borders, and money to Britain. That's the safer choice." | "We will have a settlement on our own terms - and one that will return control of our borders, and money to Britain. That's the safer choice." |
| He said the government was "in denial" about the risk of remaining a member of the EU. | He said the government was "in denial" about the risk of remaining a member of the EU. |
| "This dodgy dossier won't fool anyone," he said, adding that the "real uncertainty is the future of the EU project". | "This dodgy dossier won't fool anyone," he said, adding that the "real uncertainty is the future of the EU project". |
| But his cabinet colleague, Philip Hammond, said analysis showed that "every alternative to remaining in a reformed EU would leave Britain weaker, less safe and worse off". | But his cabinet colleague, Philip Hammond, said analysis showed that "every alternative to remaining in a reformed EU would leave Britain weaker, less safe and worse off". |
| Speaking on BBC Breakfast, the foreign secretary added: "This is going to be a divorce, if we decide to leave, and as with any divorce it is likely to get messy. It will take a long time to sort out the disentanglement of our affairs." | Speaking on BBC Breakfast, the foreign secretary added: "This is going to be a divorce, if we decide to leave, and as with any divorce it is likely to get messy. It will take a long time to sort out the disentanglement of our affairs." |
| He said British businesses, consumers and jobs would then be "left in limbo", and called on pro-exit campaigners to set-out a "model" for how the UK would negotiate with the EU in the event of it leaving the union. | He said British businesses, consumers and jobs would then be "left in limbo", and called on pro-exit campaigners to set-out a "model" for how the UK would negotiate with the EU in the event of it leaving the union. |
| Gerard Lyons, of investment bank Black Rock and chief economic adviser to London mayor and Leave campaigner Boris Johnson, said it would be "a shock for both sides" if Britain left but it would be in the EU's interest to reach a trade deal with the UK as it was one of the EU's biggest export markets. | Gerard Lyons, of investment bank Black Rock and chief economic adviser to London mayor and Leave campaigner Boris Johnson, said it would be "a shock for both sides" if Britain left but it would be in the EU's interest to reach a trade deal with the UK as it was one of the EU's biggest export markets. |
| Meanwhile, Lord Lamont has become the latest Conservative grandee to nail his colours to one side or other of the EU debate. | Meanwhile, Lord Lamont has become the latest Conservative grandee to nail his colours to one side or other of the EU debate. |
| Lord Lamont, who was chancellor in the early 1990s when Britain crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, is calling for Britain to leave, arguing in the Daily Telegraph that the country could succeed economically and would regain control of immigration. | Lord Lamont, who was chancellor in the early 1990s when Britain crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, is calling for Britain to leave, arguing in the Daily Telegraph that the country could succeed economically and would regain control of immigration. |
| The government document is expected to say Norway and Switzerland's trading arrangements outside the EU require them to make financial contributions, accept the EU principle of free movement of people and be subject to other EU laws. | The government document is expected to say Norway and Switzerland's trading arrangements outside the EU require them to make financial contributions, accept the EU principle of free movement of people and be subject to other EU laws. |
| Meanwhile, Switzerland and Canada's arrangements provide only limited access to the single market, it will add. | Meanwhile, Switzerland and Canada's arrangements provide only limited access to the single market, it will add. |