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Clinton's southern 'firewall' of support no sure thing come general election Clinton's southern 'firewall' of support no sure thing come general election
(35 minutes later)
Her husband was called the first black president. Her former boss actually was the first black president.Her husband was called the first black president. Her former boss actually was the first black president.
Now it’s Hillary Clinton’s turn to claim overwhelming support from African-American Democrats, with her trouncing of Bernie Sanders in South Carolina last week, and what look likely to be similar victories across the southern states in today’s Super Tuesday primaries. Now it’s Hillary Clinton’s turn to claim overwhelming support from AfricanAmerican Democrats, with her trouncing of Bernie Sanders in South Carolina last week, and what look likely to be similar victories across the southern states in today’s Super Tuesday primaries.
Does that mean Clinton is well on her way to rebuilding the Obama coalition that could take her to the White House?Does that mean Clinton is well on her way to rebuilding the Obama coalition that could take her to the White House?
That’s not so clear. For Clinton’s appeal to African-American Democrats is both rooted in – and limited by – her husband’s presidency. That’s not so clear. For Clinton’s appeal to African American Democrats is both rooted in – and limited by – her husband’s presidency.
Related: It's time for the haters to get behind Hillary Clinton | Rachel Sklar
In Georgia, where Clinton is polling between 30 and 50 points ahead of Sanders, the lopsided numbers do not tell the full story of a generational split among black voters.In Georgia, where Clinton is polling between 30 and 50 points ahead of Sanders, the lopsided numbers do not tell the full story of a generational split among black voters.
“Hillary Clinton has nearly 100% name recognition among African-Americans here, and additionally she enjoys the establishment blessing, which is largely the group that benefited from her husband’s policies. They rose in affluence and prominence in his administration,” says Francys Johnson, state president of the Georgia NAACP. “Hillary Clinton has nearly 100% name recognition among African Americans here, and additionally she enjoys the establishment blessing, which is largely the group that benefitted from her husband’s policies. They rose in affluence and prominence in his administration,” says Francys Johnson, state president of the Georgia NAACP.
“But younger people who came of age during or after his administration have suffered the most from his policies. They gave rise to the prison-industrial complex, the breaking of the safety net in so-called welfare reform, and the conditions that set the stage for a global race to the bottom when it comes to wages in this country, in terms of his free trade agreements, which largely eviscerated the manufacturing economy of this country.”“But younger people who came of age during or after his administration have suffered the most from his policies. They gave rise to the prison-industrial complex, the breaking of the safety net in so-called welfare reform, and the conditions that set the stage for a global race to the bottom when it comes to wages in this country, in terms of his free trade agreements, which largely eviscerated the manufacturing economy of this country.”
Name recognition may be enough to carry Clinton convincingly through the primaries, but that will not mean much against a man who has built his business around his personal name: Donald Trump, who is campaigning against the same free trade agreements.Name recognition may be enough to carry Clinton convincingly through the primaries, but that will not mean much against a man who has built his business around his personal name: Donald Trump, who is campaigning against the same free trade agreements.
Clinton will need to do more than just win the lion’s share of the African-American vote. Barack Obama won reelection four years ago with 93% of the black vote, 71% of the Latino vote, and 39% of the white vote. While minority turnout hit a record high, it only represented one quarter of the total electorate. Clinton will need to do more than just win the lion’s share of the African American vote. Barack Obama won re-election four years ago with 93% of the black vote, 71% of the Latino vote, and 39% of the white vote. While minority turnout hit a record high, it only represented one quarter of the total electorate.
To win in the solidly Republican states of the south, Clinton will need to drive high turnout among minorities and hold a larger share of the white vote than Obama. Neither of those scenarios is clear, not least with a likely opponent as unpredictable as Donald Trump. To win in the solidly Republican states of the south, Clinton will need to drive high turnout among minorities and hold a larger share of the white vote than Obama. Neither of those scenarios is clear-cut, not least with a likely opponent as unpredictable as Donald Trump.
On the other hand, if Clinton can maintain high minority turnout and peel away white women from Trump, she may find a path to sweeping victories in states such as Georgia, where the politics have shifted along with the population.On the other hand, if Clinton can maintain high minority turnout and peel away white women from Trump, she may find a path to sweeping victories in states such as Georgia, where the politics have shifted along with the population.
Obama took the once-reliably conservative states of Virginia and North Carolina in 2008, and, in the final days of the first campaign, his aides suggested Georgia might also come into play. Demographic projections suggest that minorities will represent a majority of the state’s population in less than a decade. Obama took the once reliably conservative states of Virginia and North Carolina in 2008, and, in the final days of the first campaign, his aides suggested Georgia might also come into play. Demographic projections suggest that minorities will represent a majority of the state’s population in less than a decade.
Still, Obama lost Georgia twice, and the last Democrat to win here was Bill Clinton in 1992.Still, Obama lost Georgia twice, and the last Democrat to win here was Bill Clinton in 1992.
“To what extent can Hillary Clinton pull together this Democratic coalition? Can she get the turn out and the numbers that Barack Obama had in this state?” asked Merle Black, political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta. “To what extent can Hillary Clinton pull together this Democratic coalition? Can she get the turnout and the numbers that Barack Obama had in this state?” asked Merle Black, political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta.
“The big Democratic problem in Georgia – and this is true through the deep south states – is that they can’t get more than 23% of the white vote. I think among white males in Georgia, Hillary Clinton is going to find it hard getting out of the 20s and she’ll also lose white women. Although, what is Trump’s appeal among white women?” “The big Democratic problem in Georgia – and this is true through the deep south states – is that they can’t get more than 23% of the white vote. I think among white males in Georgia, Hillary Clinton is going to find it hard getting out of the 20s and she’ll also lose white women. Although – what is Trump’s appeal among white women?”
Turnout in the Democratic primaries has been notably smaller than the Republican contests in the same state so far this year. In South Carolina, the number of GOP votes – driven by Trump’s candidacy – was twice that of the Democratic votes. Turnout in the Democratic primaries has been notably smaller than in the Republican contests in the same states so far this year. In South Carolina, the number of GOP votes – driven by Trump’s candidacy – was twice that of the Democratic votes.
That dynamic may well change as the Clinton campaign seizes on Trump’s offensive positions and statement to drive their own turnout as much as he drives his own. That dynamic may well change as the Clinton campaign seizes on Trump’s offensive positions and statements to drive Democratic turnout as much as they drives his own.
Both Clinton and Trump’s main GOP rivals have expressed their dismay at the Republican frontrunner’s refusal to disavow support from the Ku Klux Klan. Marco Rubio’s biggest southern supporter, South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, linked Trump’s KKK support to the Charleston church massacre last year. Both Clinton and Trump’s main GOP rivals have expressed their dismay at the Republican frontrunner’s mixed statements on support from former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. Marco Rubio’s biggest southern supporter, South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, linked Trump’s KKK support to the Charleston church massacre last year.
“The KKK came to South Carolina from out of state to protest on our statehouse grounds. We saw and looked at true hate in the eyes, last year in Charleston,” Haley told a rally in Atlanta on Monday. “I will not stop until we fight a man that chooses not to disavow the KKK. That is not a part of our party. That is not who we want as president. We will not allow that in our country.”“The KKK came to South Carolina from out of state to protest on our statehouse grounds. We saw and looked at true hate in the eyes, last year in Charleston,” Haley told a rally in Atlanta on Monday. “I will not stop until we fight a man that chooses not to disavow the KKK. That is not a part of our party. That is not who we want as president. We will not allow that in our country.”
That may be a rallying cry for the GOP establishment, but even for black voters supporting Rubio, Trump’s positions are not necessarily a turn off. That may be a rallying cry for the GOP establishment, but even for black voters supporting Rubio, Trump’s positions are not necessarily a turnoff.
“I know what he was doing. I expected that. I don’t think he’s racist,” said a retired real estate manager from Lithonia, who declined to be identified because of family disapproval of her politics.“I know what he was doing. I expected that. I don’t think he’s racist,” said a retired real estate manager from Lithonia, who declined to be identified because of family disapproval of her politics.
So would she vote for Trump in the fall, if Rubio fails to win the nomination? “I’ll have to think about it,” she said. “I really have to think about it. I just don’t know.”So would she vote for Trump in the fall, if Rubio fails to win the nomination? “I’ll have to think about it,” she said. “I really have to think about it. I just don’t know.”
Those conflicted feelings may point to a lower, not higher, turnout among minorities in the general election. Georgia’s NAACP reports a spike in hate group activities: suspicious church burnings, property damage and leafleting, including white-hooded KKK images alongside Trump’s name and slogan.Those conflicted feelings may point to a lower, not higher, turnout among minorities in the general election. Georgia’s NAACP reports a spike in hate group activities: suspicious church burnings, property damage and leafleting, including white-hooded KKK images alongside Trump’s name and slogan.
“If it’s Hillary versus Trump, then it’s going to be a matter of fear versus pandering. Donald Trump majors in fear and Hillary Clinton majors in pandering,” said Johnson.“If it’s Hillary versus Trump, then it’s going to be a matter of fear versus pandering. Donald Trump majors in fear and Hillary Clinton majors in pandering,” said Johnson.
“That doesn’t speak well for a presidential election where we are electing the leader of the free world and setting the tone for the next generation in this country. I am concerned about that. It’s testimony to where we are in politics in this country.”“That doesn’t speak well for a presidential election where we are electing the leader of the free world and setting the tone for the next generation in this country. I am concerned about that. It’s testimony to where we are in politics in this country.”