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| One thing is clear about the Irish elections: Sinn Féin is still a force | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The Gerry Adams leadership of Sinn Féin is reminiscent of the U2 song With or Without You. On the one hand, the party can’t live with Adams’ lacklustre performances in media interviews, but on the other he is an icon of Irish republicanism without whom the brand would lose much of its cachet. | The Gerry Adams leadership of Sinn Féin is reminiscent of the U2 song With or Without You. On the one hand, the party can’t live with Adams’ lacklustre performances in media interviews, but on the other he is an icon of Irish republicanism without whom the brand would lose much of its cachet. |
| At time of writing, the counting of votes in the Irish general election is still dragging on, but it looks like the “Shinners” will have around two-dozen seats when the new Dáil assembles on 10 March. That’s up from 14 deputies when the election was called, although critics may argue it could have been even better if Adams hadn’t come across on radio and TV as lacking understanding of his own party’s policies on key issues like water charges and income tax rates. | At time of writing, the counting of votes in the Irish general election is still dragging on, but it looks like the “Shinners” will have around two-dozen seats when the new Dáil assembles on 10 March. That’s up from 14 deputies when the election was called, although critics may argue it could have been even better if Adams hadn’t come across on radio and TV as lacking understanding of his own party’s policies on key issues like water charges and income tax rates. |
| Related: Ireland's general election – the Guardian briefing | Related: Ireland's general election – the Guardian briefing |
| But outside the media bubble, Adams looks very much like a plus for the party he has led since the early 1980s. He has celebrity status with a lot of ordinary punters who are eager to shake his hand and get their picture taken with someone they regard as a living legend. They are clearly attracted to a man of whom Bill Clinton is reported to have said: “The difference between you and Arafat, Gerry, is that you delivered.” | But outside the media bubble, Adams looks very much like a plus for the party he has led since the early 1980s. He has celebrity status with a lot of ordinary punters who are eager to shake his hand and get their picture taken with someone they regard as a living legend. They are clearly attracted to a man of whom Bill Clinton is reported to have said: “The difference between you and Arafat, Gerry, is that you delivered.” |
| Following one of his interviews during the election campaign, a constituency rival in Louth, Ged Nash of the Labour party, issued a searing press release where he said: “This is a man who has to take his shoes off to help him count to 20.” But Adams had the last laugh when the votes for Louth were counted. He topped the poll and brought in a running-mate, Imelda Munster, whereas Nash lost his Dáil seat. | Following one of his interviews during the election campaign, a constituency rival in Louth, Ged Nash of the Labour party, issued a searing press release where he said: “This is a man who has to take his shoes off to help him count to 20.” But Adams had the last laugh when the votes for Louth were counted. He topped the poll and brought in a running-mate, Imelda Munster, whereas Nash lost his Dáil seat. |
| Sinn Féin suffered an embarrassing setback in Donegal where the party lost one of its two sitting Teachtai Dála (Dáil members). However this was not a result of media mishaps by Adams but a misguided strategy of running three candidates, two of whom had the surname Doherty. | Sinn Féin suffered an embarrassing setback in Donegal where the party lost one of its two sitting Teachtai Dála (Dáil members). However this was not a result of media mishaps by Adams but a misguided strategy of running three candidates, two of whom had the surname Doherty. |
| Nine opinion polls in the first six weeks of the year had Sinn Féin at an average of 18.3%, but then things started to fade and the next nine surveys averaged less than 16%, while the actual result on the day was less than 14%. When election day draws near, there is a tendency within elements of the Irish electorate to revert to the mainstream parties and call off their dalliance with alternatives such as Sinn Féin and the Trotskyist far left. | Nine opinion polls in the first six weeks of the year had Sinn Féin at an average of 18.3%, but then things started to fade and the next nine surveys averaged less than 16%, while the actual result on the day was less than 14%. When election day draws near, there is a tendency within elements of the Irish electorate to revert to the mainstream parties and call off their dalliance with alternatives such as Sinn Féin and the Trotskyist far left. |
| Napoleon said he wanted “lucky generals”, and Adams has had a stroke of luck in this election. The collapse of the Irish Labour party accompanied by a serious decline for Fine Gael means nobody believes the outgoing coalition government can be re-established. To do so would require the support of a virtual army of independents and smaller fringe parties and, even if this was achievable, it could hardly be sustained. | Napoleon said he wanted “lucky generals”, and Adams has had a stroke of luck in this election. The collapse of the Irish Labour party accompanied by a serious decline for Fine Gael means nobody believes the outgoing coalition government can be re-established. To do so would require the support of a virtual army of independents and smaller fringe parties and, even if this was achievable, it could hardly be sustained. |
| Related: Ireland's fascinating election gets too little UK media coverage | Related: Ireland's fascinating election gets too little UK media coverage |
| The pressure is on Fianna Fáil to “put the country first” and form a grand coalition with Fine Gael to ensure continuity under challenging economic circumstances. Some observers believe a deal will be cut and the old civil war enemies will join together in a display of patriotic unity, having agreed on a share-out of cabinet posts plus a possible rotation of the office of Taoiseach (prime minister) between the two party leaders. | The pressure is on Fianna Fáil to “put the country first” and form a grand coalition with Fine Gael to ensure continuity under challenging economic circumstances. Some observers believe a deal will be cut and the old civil war enemies will join together in a display of patriotic unity, having agreed on a share-out of cabinet posts plus a possible rotation of the office of Taoiseach (prime minister) between the two party leaders. |
| That would leave Sinn Féin as the largest party in opposition and the potential leader of an alternative administration after the next election. It’s a thought that keeps elements of the business community and upper middle-classes awake at night, but the current need to ensure stability may well override fears of an eventual republican takeover. | That would leave Sinn Féin as the largest party in opposition and the potential leader of an alternative administration after the next election. It’s a thought that keeps elements of the business community and upper middle-classes awake at night, but the current need to ensure stability may well override fears of an eventual republican takeover. |
| There is regular speculation about a successor to Adams and the usual names mentioned are Sinn Féin deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald, finance spokesman Pearse Doherty, and former MP from Newry and Armagh Conor Murphy. McDonald and Doherty are noted for their media-savvy performances and their contributions to parliamentary debate, but neither of them has the republican aura that still surrounds Adams. Murphy has been in prison for IRA activities but would be virtually unknown in the south. | There is regular speculation about a successor to Adams and the usual names mentioned are Sinn Féin deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald, finance spokesman Pearse Doherty, and former MP from Newry and Armagh Conor Murphy. McDonald and Doherty are noted for their media-savvy performances and their contributions to parliamentary debate, but neither of them has the republican aura that still surrounds Adams. Murphy has been in prison for IRA activities but would be virtually unknown in the south. |
| So it looks like Gerry Adams will be part of the political scene for some time yet, unless he decides to call it a day himself. To paraphrase one of his own more notorious utterances, in relation to the IRA, he hasn’t gone away, you know. | So it looks like Gerry Adams will be part of the political scene for some time yet, unless he decides to call it a day himself. To paraphrase one of his own more notorious utterances, in relation to the IRA, he hasn’t gone away, you know. |