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Iran’s elections have given moderates a boost – but not a free hand Iran’s elections have given moderates a boost – but not a free hand
(6 months later)
On 26 February, Iranians voted to elect the new members of their legislative body and the assembly of experts. While the parliament’s resultant shift to the centre does not give the president, Hassan Rouhani, a free hand, it will help him in his efforts to engage Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbours.On 26 February, Iranians voted to elect the new members of their legislative body and the assembly of experts. While the parliament’s resultant shift to the centre does not give the president, Hassan Rouhani, a free hand, it will help him in his efforts to engage Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbours.
Presidential elections are generally what draw the broader public to the polls in Iran, while parliamentary elections galvanise the Islamic Republic’s base. Candidates and camps fight for the soul of the Islamic revolution and the country’s future. This year, the struggle was more visible than usual. More than half of eligible voters showed up to the polls, and helped key reformist-backed candidates and moderates gain seats in parliament.Presidential elections are generally what draw the broader public to the polls in Iran, while parliamentary elections galvanise the Islamic Republic’s base. Candidates and camps fight for the soul of the Islamic revolution and the country’s future. This year, the struggle was more visible than usual. More than half of eligible voters showed up to the polls, and helped key reformist-backed candidates and moderates gain seats in parliament.
Related: Iran set to elect record number of women into parliament
Let us put this in context. In July 2015, Rouhani agreed to a nuclear deal, which limited Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Much of the population was in favour of the deal, but a small yet vocal minority remained opposed. Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, quietened that opposition and encouraged the deal’s implementation. Iran’s hardliners had lost the battle but the war continued. They attacked many of the president’s stated priorities and his methods, including the attempts to tackle regional instability and insecurity.Let us put this in context. In July 2015, Rouhani agreed to a nuclear deal, which limited Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Much of the population was in favour of the deal, but a small yet vocal minority remained opposed. Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, quietened that opposition and encouraged the deal’s implementation. Iran’s hardliners had lost the battle but the war continued. They attacked many of the president’s stated priorities and his methods, including the attempts to tackle regional instability and insecurity.
In particular, Rouhani’s efforts to engage with Saudi Arabia faced staunch opposition from hardliners. One of the first goals of his new administration was to open a dialogue with Iran’s neighbours, but members of parliament relentlessly attacked the foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, for reaching out to Riyadh. It was only thanks to the support of Khamenei and Larijani over the nuclear deal that Zarif and Rouhani had enough political capital to continue to pursue their agenda.In particular, Rouhani’s efforts to engage with Saudi Arabia faced staunch opposition from hardliners. One of the first goals of his new administration was to open a dialogue with Iran’s neighbours, but members of parliament relentlessly attacked the foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, for reaching out to Riyadh. It was only thanks to the support of Khamenei and Larijani over the nuclear deal that Zarif and Rouhani had enough political capital to continue to pursue their agenda.
And these election results were a further slap in the face for Iran’s hardliners. Increasingly divided, with some moderate conservatives splintering to form their own bloc, they still maintain considerable influence and are likely to increase their efforts to oppose Rouhani in the face of this latest defeat.And these election results were a further slap in the face for Iran’s hardliners. Increasingly divided, with some moderate conservatives splintering to form their own bloc, they still maintain considerable influence and are likely to increase their efforts to oppose Rouhani in the face of this latest defeat.
They can both complicate his political and foreign agenda, and set a much more rigid tone. In order to prevent this, Khamenei or Larijani would have to step in and call for moderation. But the supreme leader does not have the same moderating influence on regional issues that he did in the nuclear negotiations.They can both complicate his political and foreign agenda, and set a much more rigid tone. In order to prevent this, Khamenei or Larijani would have to step in and call for moderation. But the supreme leader does not have the same moderating influence on regional issues that he did in the nuclear negotiations.
Security policy remains under the purview of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. As a result, Iran’s dealings with Syria and Iraq will continue on their current course. It is difficult for the foreign ministry to influence Iran’s activities on the ground, regardless of the moderate victory in parliament. Any changes will be the result of external factors, such as an increase in the number of deaths occurring in the field, or an untenable squeeze on the Revolutionary Guards’ resources.Security policy remains under the purview of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. As a result, Iran’s dealings with Syria and Iraq will continue on their current course. It is difficult for the foreign ministry to influence Iran’s activities on the ground, regardless of the moderate victory in parliament. Any changes will be the result of external factors, such as an increase in the number of deaths occurring in the field, or an untenable squeeze on the Revolutionary Guards’ resources.
But the elections are likely to change Iran’s outreach efforts towards its Gulf neighbours. Following the stampede at the Hajj that killed hundreds of Iranian citizens, the Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr’s killing, and Saudi Arabia’s continuing military campaign in Yemen, Iran’s conservatives find the noises coming out of Riyadh increasingly difficult to ignore. Multiple anti-Saudi rallies were organised with slogans reminiscent of the rhetoric normally reserved for the United States or Israel. Conservative parliamentarians have consistently questioned the foreign minister’s resolve to talk to Iran’s “hostile” neighbours. They made it clear that they believe that engagement with Saudi Arabia is not in Iran’s best interest.But the elections are likely to change Iran’s outreach efforts towards its Gulf neighbours. Following the stampede at the Hajj that killed hundreds of Iranian citizens, the Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr’s killing, and Saudi Arabia’s continuing military campaign in Yemen, Iran’s conservatives find the noises coming out of Riyadh increasingly difficult to ignore. Multiple anti-Saudi rallies were organised with slogans reminiscent of the rhetoric normally reserved for the United States or Israel. Conservative parliamentarians have consistently questioned the foreign minister’s resolve to talk to Iran’s “hostile” neighbours. They made it clear that they believe that engagement with Saudi Arabia is not in Iran’s best interest.
These election results were a further slap in the face for Iran’s hardlinersThese election results were a further slap in the face for Iran’s hardliners
Last Friday’s vote of confidence in the Rouhani administration, combined with parliament’s shift to the centre, will allow the government to pursue its policy of engagement with its Gulf Arab neighbours. While the moderates may differ on how far this should go, all agree that the status quo is not sustainable. As a result, Zarif will likely double his efforts to travel to more friendly Gulf capitals, such as Doha, and continue to insist on dialogue with Saudi Arabia in order to tackle regional security crises.Last Friday’s vote of confidence in the Rouhani administration, combined with parliament’s shift to the centre, will allow the government to pursue its policy of engagement with its Gulf Arab neighbours. While the moderates may differ on how far this should go, all agree that the status quo is not sustainable. As a result, Zarif will likely double his efforts to travel to more friendly Gulf capitals, such as Doha, and continue to insist on dialogue with Saudi Arabia in order to tackle regional security crises.
Post-election politicking in Iran is notoriously difficult to predict. What will follow this time is no exception. But the reformist and moderate victory will remove barriers to dialogue on the Iranian side. It remains to be seen whether the other side of the Persian Gulf is ready to respond.Post-election politicking in Iran is notoriously difficult to predict. What will follow this time is no exception. But the reformist and moderate victory will remove barriers to dialogue on the Iranian side. It remains to be seen whether the other side of the Persian Gulf is ready to respond.