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| Fresh poll puts Labor and the Coalition neck and neck – politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 5.12am GMT | |
| 05:12 | |
| William Bowe in Crikey on Essential. | |
| The normally placid Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a rare two point shift on the two party preferred this week, which eliminates a settled 52-48 lead for the Coalition over previous weeks. Particularly remarkable is a three point increase in the Labor primary vote, from 35% to 38%, although the Coalition is down only one to 43%, and the Greens are steady on 10%. | |
| Perhaps a shift is on. There are obvious reasons why a shift would be on, given the government’s recent underwhelming performance. There’s another obvious factor contributing to a tightening in the polls – the near constant speculation about early elections. Voters focus in proximity to election seasons, and generally polls tighten as a consequence. | |
| But I’m still cautious myself. I’ll need a few more polls before I’ll be confident enough to say anything much at all. | |
| 4.59am GMT | |
| 04:59 | |
| Of course I’ve just found the poll, clearly I need a Bex and a lie down. As well as the deadlock on the two party preferred measure – 50/50, there are the usual bunch of questions. | |
| Senate voting reform: | |
| Early elections: | |
| 4.53am GMT | |
| 04:53 | |
| Essential 50/50 | |
| Normally the Essential Poll is out by this time on a Tuesday afternoon, but unless I’ve gone mad, I can’t find it. Crikey’s political editor Bernard Keane says it too (like the recent Newspoll) is 50/50 on the two party preferred vote. Crikey subscribers can read Bernard here. | |
| A surge in Labor’s primary vote has eliminated the Coalition’s lead under Malcolm Turnbull, delivering the government’s worst result since the ousting of Tony Abbott, today’s Essential Report shows. . | |
| Labor’s vote is up to 38%, its best performance since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, while the Coalition’s primary vote is down a point to 43%. With the Greens down a point to 10%, the two-party preferred outcome is 50%-50%, down from 52%-48% in the government’s favour last week. | |
| The result suggests that last’s week 50-50 Newspoll, which initially looked like an outlier, in fact caught a palpable shift in the political mood beyond Canberra away from a government that has looked rattled and directionless under its new economic leadership. | |
| 4.48am GMT | |
| 04:48 | |
| Lenore Taylor has written some commentary post party room about Tony Abbott’s efforts to project Malcolm Turnbull back into his budget strategy – the one rejected by the voters. | |
| Tony Abbott has confirmed the obvious. The backbench “revolt” over the Coalition’s tax policy has really been about trying to corral Malcolm Turnbull into repeating his predecessor’s rejected budget policy. | |
| Because of course if Turnbull goes along with the “revolters” and rejects options to reduce tax concessions for the very rich, he will be left with the only other way to pay for anything he wants to do, without increasing the budget deficit. Spending cuts. | |
| Recommended reading. | |
| 4.34am GMT | 4.34am GMT |
| 04:34 | 04:34 |
| Just while I’m shifting gears, the world’s greatest environment minister, mid savannah update. | Just while I’m shifting gears, the world’s greatest environment minister, mid savannah update. |
| 4.16am GMT | 4.16am GMT |
| 04:16 | 04:16 |
| Further questions have been placed on the notice paper. Let me gather briefly and then I’ll be back for the rest of the afternoon. | Further questions have been placed on the notice paper. Let me gather briefly and then I’ll be back for the rest of the afternoon. |
| 4.12am GMT | 4.12am GMT |
| 04:12 | 04:12 |
| Meanwhile, up the back. | Meanwhile, up the back. |
| 4.09am GMT | 4.09am GMT |
| 04:09 | 04:09 |
| Bill Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull has failed on eight occasions to rule out negative gearing changes. Could he finally bring the voters into his confidence? The prime minister says when the government has concluded its work, it will share the conclusions. In the interim the prime minister will reflect on the bizarre and anomalous outcomes associated with Labor’s negative gearing policy. | Bill Shorten says Malcolm Turnbull has failed on eight occasions to rule out negative gearing changes. Could he finally bring the voters into his confidence? The prime minister says when the government has concluded its work, it will share the conclusions. In the interim the prime minister will reflect on the bizarre and anomalous outcomes associated with Labor’s negative gearing policy. |
| 4.05am GMT | 4.05am GMT |
| 04:05 | 04:05 |
| The environment minister Greg Hunt is invited to reflect on the general fabulousness of Direct Action. He is delighted to provide an update on savannah management. | The environment minister Greg Hunt is invited to reflect on the general fabulousness of Direct Action. He is delighted to provide an update on savannah management. |
| 4.02am GMT | 4.02am GMT |
| 04:02 | 04:02 |
| I’ve just been back to a research paper from Ben Phillips at the ANU, who says in 2012-13, 1.2m people had negatively geared properties. Not quite two-thirds, 1.2m. | I’ve just been back to a research paper from Ben Phillips at the ANU, who says in 2012-13, 1.2m people had negatively geared properties. Not quite two-thirds, 1.2m. |
| 4.00am GMT | 4.00am GMT |
| 04:00 | 04:00 |
| Christian Porter: | Christian Porter: |
| What we have here, Mr Speaker, is the idea, the idea that you can take the two thirds of Australians who have been receiving a tax benefit, make them pay more tax on housing, two thirds of Australians who were negative gearing, who earn under $80,000, make them pay more tax. | What we have here, Mr Speaker, is the idea, the idea that you can take the two thirds of Australians who have been receiving a tax benefit, make them pay more tax on housing, two thirds of Australians who were negative gearing, who earn under $80,000, make them pay more tax. |
| (Two thirds sounds rather high to me.) | (Two thirds sounds rather high to me.) |
| 3.53am GMT | 3.53am GMT |
| 03:53 | 03:53 |
| Q: What are the excesses in negative gearing? | Q: What are the excesses in negative gearing? |
| Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen, to the prime minister, who throws it to the social services minister. | Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen, to the prime minister, who throws it to the social services minister. |
| Labor says, er wut, why would this question go to a minister without portfolio responsibility? Manager of government business Christopher Pyne says one of the delightful things about being a prime minister is you can throw questions wherever you want. Speaker Smith agrees. | Labor says, er wut, why would this question go to a minister without portfolio responsibility? Manager of government business Christopher Pyne says one of the delightful things about being a prime minister is you can throw questions wherever you want. Speaker Smith agrees. |
| Christian Porter moves to the dispatch box. He’d like to speak about housing affordability and rental affordability. And about a tax not being reform. (Which is a mildly brave line of argument, given the government will make some tax changes in due course and, I presume, will characterise that activity as reform.) | Christian Porter moves to the dispatch box. He’d like to speak about housing affordability and rental affordability. And about a tax not being reform. (Which is a mildly brave line of argument, given the government will make some tax changes in due course and, I presume, will characterise that activity as reform.) |