Ireland’s divided lawmakers mull possible pact, 2nd election
(about 13 hours later)
DUBLIN — Ireland could be on course for a historic alliance between age-old foes — the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail parties — as partial election results Saturday revealed strong voter rejection of the existing coalition government of Prime Minister Enda Kenny.
DUBLIN — Lawmakers in Ireland expressed a sense of shellshock and division Sunday over whether the country’s next government should be a historic alliance of age-old foes — or whether there should be a second election.
Kenny said he was surprised by the unexpectedly strong losses for his centrist Fine Gael and even heavier blows for his left-wing partner, Labour. “Democracy can be very exciting but it’s merciless,” he said.
With two-thirds of winners declared in the race to fill a 158-member parliament, the new political landscape looked like the most fractured in Irish history. The two perennial centrist heavyweights — governing Fine Gael and opposition Fianna Fail — remained virtually neck and neck, with Fine Gael winners of 31 parliamentary seats, Fianna Fail 30.
Yet Ireland’s soft-spoken leader vowed to remain in office atop a new coalition and would seek new allies with the sole aim of creating “as stable a government as can be created.” He declined to rule out a historic partnership with Fianna Fail, which has never shared power with Fine Gael since their founders took opposite sides in Ireland’s civil war 94 years ago.
Analysts forecast that Fine Gael would finish a few lawmakers stronger than the party’s political nemesis Fianna Fail. But neither would be able to form a parliamentary majority with any other single party, only each other.
With all 40 of Ireland’s constituencies reporting official first-round results, Fine Gael attracted 25.5 percent of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, down 10.6 points from the last election in 2011.
Voters disgusted by Ireland’s 2008 economic collapse, 2010 international bailout and years of austerity deemed necessary to repair the damage threw their support in Friday’s election to a dizzying array of anti-government voices. For the first time in Irish electoral history, the combined popular vote for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael slid below 50 percent.
Many rounds of ballot counting remain under Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation. Declared winners for all 158 seats in Ireland’s parliament were expected by Monday.
The two parties evolved from opposite sides of the cut-throat civil war that followed Ireland’s 1922 independence from Britain. Between them, they have led every Irish government — and have never shared power with each other.
Fianna Fail — which faced political ruin in 2011 after leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy and a humiliating international bailout — mounted an unexpectedly strong comeback. The party took 24.3 percent of first-preference votes and appeared poised to double its parliamentary seats at the expense of Fine Gael and Labour. The latter retained just 6.6 percent support, off 12.8 points from 2011.
But neither side has ruled out forming a partnership if government stability requires this. Few workable alternatives look available in a parliament increasingly crowded with untested micro-parties and maverick independents hostile to both establishment parties.
Finishing a somewhat lackluster third was the nationalist Sinn Fein, a hard-left critic of the government’s painful but broadly successful pursuit of austerity. Sinn Fein won 13.8 percent support as it sought to capitalize on voter discontent over an era of tax hikes, spending cuts and pruned wages that Ireland is only starting to leave behind.
The nationalist Sinn Fein party finished in third place with a somewhat disappointing 13.8 percent share of the popular vote. But both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have ruled out cooperation citing Sinn Fein’s ties to the outlawed Irish Republican Army.
But protest votes against austerity flew in myriad directions to a half-dozen other small parties and independents.
Leading lawmakers in both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael said Sunday they cannot see how two parties so long committed to tearing each other down can form a united Cabinet that survives for months, never mind five years.
With Fine Gael and Fianna Fail now nearly even in public support, the question is who can negotiate an alliance sufficient to hold a parliamentary majority: Kenny or Fianna Fail chief Micheal Martin.
They forecast that coalition talks could take weeks to get going, and failure would force Ireland to hold a second election. Ireland hasn’t experienced back-to-back elections amid a finely balanced parliament since 1982.
Martin, like Kenny, remained coy on the prospect of forging an alliance. But he said voters wanted a new government, so he intended to nominate himself as prime minister when the new parliament convenes March 10.
“There’s a sense of bewilderment first of all. We’re a long way from sitting down together and talking about what our next options are,” said Regina Doherty, a re-elected lawmaker for Meath northwest of Dublin.
“We’re committed to doing our best by the country and ensuring that the country gets a good government,” Martin said. “But it will take time.”
Finance Minister Michael Noonan, speaking from an election count center in his native Limerick, said: “We may all be back here again very shortly.”
Martin said any successful coalition negotiation “has to be very much focused on the issues and on policies, and not just on numbers.”
An editorial cartoon in the Sunday Independent newspaper captured the national mood.
Ireland’s former Fianna Fail prime minister, Bertie Ahern, forecast that neither Kenny nor Martin would win majority backing March 10. Ahern, renowned as the savviest coalition negotiator of his generation, said he expected no deal until well after Ireland’s national holiday, St. Patrick’s Day, on March 17.
In it, a reporter asks the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail leaders: “What next?”
Dismissing the idea of a long-term deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, Ahern quipped that Ireland likely faced a “kaleidoscope coalition” dependent on independent lawmakers and erratic small parties that would be lucky to survive even a year.
Prime Minister Enda Kenny replies: “Stable chaos.” Micheal Martin counters: “Chaotic stability.’”
Most analysts forecast that Fine Gael would win around 50 seats, versus the 76 it won five years ago, while Fianna Fail should win more than 40, at least doubling its 2011 total of 20.
Recounts over disputed results in Ireland’s complex, multi-round system of proportional representation mean that all winners won’t be confirmed until Monday at the earliest.
A parliamentary majority requires at least 79 lawmakers, although stable Irish governments typically require a larger cushion of support.
The new parliament is scheduled to convene March 10 to elect a prime minister.
If Ireland’s two political heavyweights cannot negotiate a pact, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail could seek support from a dizzying array of small parties and independents on target for election as results kept trickling in Saturday night and Sunday across this nation of 4.6 million.
Both parties have ruled out including Sinn Fein in the next government, citing its links to the Irish Republican Army, even though that underground group has observed a cease-fire since 1997. Both Kenny and Martin saved their sharpest campaign attacks for Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, questioning his own IRA record and alleged involvement in cover-ups of unsolved crimes.
Ironically, Fine Gael’s and Fianna Fail’s shared hostility to Sinn Fein could emerge as the greatest issue barring any serious consideration of a so-called “Fine Fail” government.
Senior lawmakers from both establishment parties noted that if they both went into government at the same time, Sinn Fein would be left to dominate the opposition benches and position itself to become the voters’ next choice for power.
Health Minister Leo Varadkar said he didn’t want Fine Gael to share power with Fianna Fail “just because the numbers add up.” He expressed distrust of Fianna Fail, warned that such a partnership would be unstable and prone to breakdowns, and “would open the door to a Sinn Fein government in a very short time.”
National turnout was 65.2 percent, down nearly 5 points from 2011.
The results from Friday’s election will take at least two days to calculate because Ireland uses a complex electoral system designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. Each of Ireland’s 40 districts elects three to five lawmakers each.
Voters are permitted to rate all candidates on the ballot paper in order of preference. This means electoral officials must tabulate results in several laborious rounds, transferring lower-preference votes from victorious or eliminated candidates to those still in contention for remaining seats.
One other mix-up and delay reflected the dynastic, often nepotistic nature of Irish politics.
In County Kerry, officials struggled to confirm even the first-preference results after a marathon 14-hour count — because two leading candidates, Danny and Michael Healy-Rae, are brothers and ballot counters accidentally scrambled their vote counts. Tempers frayed as a late-night recount was ordered.
With midnight approaching, Michael Healy-Rae finally was declared Kerry’s first winner. Boisterous supporters lifted the lawmaker into the air, his trademark farmer’s cap somehow staying on his head, as they sang his campaign song: “Make your vote and pray, that he goes all the way! He’s flat to the mat with his black cap, and there’s no time for tae (tea).”
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
