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| Clinton wins South Carolina Democratic primary – campaign live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.01am GMT | |
| 00:01 | |
| AP calls the win for Clinton | |
| It’s here… | |
| BREAKING: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic primary in South Carolina. @AP race call at 7:00 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall | |
| 11.58pm GMT | |
| 23:58 | |
| We’re closing in on the polls closing in South Carolina now, although as that Clinton campaign tweet said, those on line at 7pm will still get to vote. | |
| Dan Roberts lets us know from Dallas, Texas, meanwhile, that Bernie Sanders is “wheels up” and on his way to Rochester, Minnesota. | |
| Updated | |
| at 11.59pm GMT | |
| 11.47pm GMT | |
| 23:47 | |
| Back on South Carolina, the Associated Press tweets… | |
| The Latest: Early exit polls in the South Carolina Democratic primary contest suggest about 6 in 10 voters are black. | |
| Sanders and Clinton’s contrasting appeal to African American voters have been at the heart of the South Carolina campaign, even leading to a rather undignified spat over the extent of Sanders’ involvement in the civil rights movement of the 1960s. | |
| Related: Footage shows a young Bernie Sanders arrested during civil rights protest | |
| It’s generally held that Clinton will do much better with black voters today, and thus win the contest comfortably. | |
| Here’s a tweet from the Clinton campaign in South Carolina… | |
| If you're in line by 7pm, you can vote. Do not leave! Go to https://t.co/6l9Jgk1j5J to find your polling place. pic.twitter.com/KpnOs0FHzx | |
| 11.35pm GMT | |
| 23:35 | |
| Massachusetts is a Super Tuesday state and there is a new poll out about it. In that poll, from Suffolk University and concerning the Republican field, Donald Trump leads Marco Rubio by a huge – yuge – 23 points, 43% to 20%. John Kasich is third with 17%, ahead of Ted Cruz, with 9%, and Ben Carson with his increasingly customary 4%. | |
| Nick Gass of Politico points out the poll’s interesting findings on favourability: | |
| Kasich is the best-liked candidate in Massachusetts, however, with a net positive rating of +39 points (60% favorable to 21% unfavorable), while Trump’s net favorability is at +22 points (56% to 34%) and Rubio’s is at +19 points (51% to 32%). Cruz’s favorability is underwater, at -11 points (37% favorable to 48% unfavorable). | |
| According to the New York Times piece about the behind-the-scenes workings I cited earlier, Kasich’s plan is to win his own state, Ohio, collect the second-most delegates around the country, then get to the convention and work like crazy to wrest the nomination away from Trump. This, the piece says, is why he has not heeded calls to drop out, in order that Rubio might be able to concentrate on bringing down Trump. | |
| Updated | |
| at 11.39pm GMT | |
| 11.25pm GMT | 11.25pm GMT |
| 23:25 | 23:25 |
| Here’s Nate Silver again, polling expert de nos four-years-since-he-called-the-2012 -election-right. Silver, he say he suspects Clinton may not win by quite so much as 38 points, but will still, obviously, win… | Here’s Nate Silver again, polling expert de nos four-years-since-he-called-the-2012 -election-right. Silver, he say he suspects Clinton may not win by quite so much as 38 points, but will still, obviously, win… |
| "Polls-plus" forecast is even more aggressive, Clinton +38. Not sure I buy it but exit poll teasers good for her. https://t.co/7puioakcXa | "Polls-plus" forecast is even more aggressive, Clinton +38. Not sure I buy it but exit poll teasers good for her. https://t.co/7puioakcXa |
| 11.18pm GMT | 11.18pm GMT |
| 23:18 | 23:18 |
| Lauren Gambino | Lauren Gambino |
| Meanwhile, back on the Democratic side of things, Lauren is in Columbia and she has been talking to voters… | Meanwhile, back on the Democratic side of things, Lauren is in Columbia and she has been talking to voters… |
| Name: Shakeena Clark Residence: Colombia, SCAge: 31Job: 1st-grade teacherVoted for: Bernie Sanders | Name: Shakeena Clark Residence: Colombia, SCAge: 31Job: 1st-grade teacherVoted for: Bernie Sanders |
| “I like Bernie’s platform a whole lot more. It was between him and Hillary but he just stands for more what I stand for.” | “I like Bernie’s platform a whole lot more. It was between him and Hillary but he just stands for more what I stand for.” |
| Unlike many voters I spoke to, Clark said his civil rights activism impressed her. “I like that he marched on Washington with Martin Luther King. That shows he’s with us.” | Unlike many voters I spoke to, Clark said his civil rights activism impressed her. “I like that he marched on Washington with Martin Luther King. That shows he’s with us.” |
| Clark said she was really turned off by the way Clinton handled the furore over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. | Clark said she was really turned off by the way Clinton handled the furore over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. |
| “It was so bothersome the way she brushed it off,” she said. “Like, what else can’t you tell us?” | “It was so bothersome the way she brushed it off,” she said. “Like, what else can’t you tell us?” |
| Clark said she’s been really disappointed with the rhetoric coming from Republicans. | Clark said she’s been really disappointed with the rhetoric coming from Republicans. |
| “It’s kind of scary to see that people actually have those views from years ago and that people actually agree with some of the things that Donald Trump is saying,” she said. “To see him actually win primaries, to win South Carolina…” | “It’s kind of scary to see that people actually have those views from years ago and that people actually agree with some of the things that Donald Trump is saying,” she said. “To see him actually win primaries, to win South Carolina…” |
| She sighed and trailed off. | She sighed and trailed off. |
| “It’s heartbreaking, actually.” | “It’s heartbreaking, actually.” |
| 11.09pm GMT | 11.09pm GMT |
| 23:09 | 23:09 |
| Ben Jacobs | Ben Jacobs |
| Our intrepid political reporter is with Ben Carson in Houston. Here’s Ben’s first-draft-of-history (Twitter, to ordinary people) reporting of what the good doctor is saying: | Our intrepid political reporter is with Ben Carson in Houston. Here’s Ben’s first-draft-of-history (Twitter, to ordinary people) reporting of what the good doctor is saying: |
| Carson: There are a lot of shysters. There have been snake oil salesmen as long as this country has been in existence. | Carson: There are a lot of shysters. There have been snake oil salesmen as long as this country has been in existence. |
| Questioner for Carson expresses concern that with President Trump "Air Force One will be a bunch supermodels on jets" | Questioner for Carson expresses concern that with President Trump "Air Force One will be a bunch supermodels on jets" |
| Ben Carson says he doesn't think Republicans will nominate Trump: "I do not believe that we are quite that dense" | Ben Carson says he doesn't think Republicans will nominate Trump: "I do not believe that we are quite that dense" |
| Carson says nominating Trump is a mistake: "If we are to continue in the vein were are going in right now we'll make very very bad mistake" | Carson says nominating Trump is a mistake: "If we are to continue in the vein were are going in right now we'll make very very bad mistake" |
| 11.02pm GMT | 11.02pm GMT |
| 23:02 | 23:02 |
| Marco Rubio, meanwhile, has done what he said he would do in Thursday’s debate, and released his tax returns for the last five years. They are available for your perusal – perhaps with a brandy, by a roaring fire, with loved ones gathered about – here. | Marco Rubio, meanwhile, has done what he said he would do in Thursday’s debate, and released his tax returns for the last five years. They are available for your perusal – perhaps with a brandy, by a roaring fire, with loved ones gathered about – here. |
| In 2012, Rubio’s most lucrative year thanks to royalties collected on two books, he paid 31% tax. | In 2012, Rubio’s most lucrative year thanks to royalties collected on two books, he paid 31% tax. |
| Actually, the senator has released only the first two pages of each 1040 form, not the full deal as released – eventually – by Mitt Romney in 2012 and by Hillary Clinton last year. (Romney, memorably, turned out to have paid a bit less than 31% on his billions.) | Actually, the senator has released only the first two pages of each 1040 form, not the full deal as released – eventually – by Mitt Romney in 2012 and by Hillary Clinton last year. (Romney, memorably, turned out to have paid a bit less than 31% on his billions.) |
| A campaign spokesman, meanwhile, told the Associated Press: | A campaign spokesman, meanwhile, told the Associated Press: |
| We’re putting these out today to put pressure on Trump and the other candidates to release theirs. To the extent there are additional questions about Marco, we won’t rule out providing more information in the future. | We’re putting these out today to put pressure on Trump and the other candidates to release theirs. To the extent there are additional questions about Marco, we won’t rule out providing more information in the future. |
| “To the extent that there are additional questions” sounds like a bit of a clumsy phrasing to me. Does that mean the campaign expects more questions? Is saying there will be? An “if” might not have gone amiss, perhaps. | “To the extent that there are additional questions” sounds like a bit of a clumsy phrasing to me. Does that mean the campaign expects more questions? Is saying there will be? An “if” might not have gone amiss, perhaps. |
| Donald Trump, of course, has not released his tax returns either, as he says he is being audited. The whole thing boiled up in Thursday’s debate after Romney said Trump should release his tax returns, prompting Rubio and Ted Cruz to attack while proclaiming their own righteousness on the matter. | Donald Trump, of course, has not released his tax returns either, as he says he is being audited. The whole thing boiled up in Thursday’s debate after Romney said Trump should release his tax returns, prompting Rubio and Ted Cruz to attack while proclaiming their own righteousness on the matter. |
| Cruz, by the by, has not yet released his tax records, despite saying he would do by Friday. | Cruz, by the by, has not yet released his tax records, despite saying he would do by Friday. |
| Here’s the full AP take on the story… | Here’s the full AP take on the story… |
| Related: Marco Rubio releases tax returns showing windfalls from book deals | Related: Marco Rubio releases tax returns showing windfalls from book deals |
| And here’s a perceptive tweet on the matter: | And here’s a perceptive tweet on the matter: |
| First thing I noticed: Rubio did not check the box for $3 to go to public financing of presidential elections | First thing I noticed: Rubio did not check the box for $3 to go to public financing of presidential elections |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.07pm GMT | at 11.07pm GMT |
| 10.45pm GMT | 10.45pm GMT |
| 22:45 | 22:45 |
| I probably shouldn’t point to other newspapers’ coverage too often on here, obviously, but the New York Times today has a tremendous and fascinating piece on the behind-the-scenes machinations going on in Republican circles as a Donald Trump nomination looms ever larger: | I probably shouldn’t point to other newspapers’ coverage too often on here, obviously, but the New York Times today has a tremendous and fascinating piece on the behind-the-scenes machinations going on in Republican circles as a Donald Trump nomination looms ever larger: |
| At least two campaigns have drafted plans to overtake Mr Trump in a brokered convention, and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has laid out a plan that would have lawmakers break with Mr Trump explicitly in a general election. | At least two campaigns have drafted plans to overtake Mr Trump in a brokered convention, and the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has laid out a plan that would have lawmakers break with Mr Trump explicitly in a general election. |
| Despite such deliciously House of Cards-tinged intrigue, the main takeaways are that no-one in those Republican circles really has much of a clue how to stop Trump without destroying the party, and Chris Christie’s endorsement of him on Friday has only made things worse… | Despite such deliciously House of Cards-tinged intrigue, the main takeaways are that no-one in those Republican circles really has much of a clue how to stop Trump without destroying the party, and Chris Christie’s endorsement of him on Friday has only made things worse… |
| 10.38pm GMT | 10.38pm GMT |
| 22:38 | 22:38 |
| Remember that photo from Dan Roberts of the turnout for Bernie Sanders in Dallas this evening, a couple of posts ago? You know, the usual: arena full-to-bursting, chants of “Turn Texas Blue”, probably some Woody Guthrie somewhere. | Remember that photo from Dan Roberts of the turnout for Bernie Sanders in Dallas this evening, a couple of posts ago? You know, the usual: arena full-to-bursting, chants of “Turn Texas Blue”, probably some Woody Guthrie somewhere. |
| Well, this was the scene when Dan went to a Sanders rally in Columbia, South Carolina on Friday night: | Well, this was the scene when Dan went to a Sanders rally in Columbia, South Carolina on Friday night: |
| Spot the difference. | Spot the difference. |
| 10.31pm GMT | 10.31pm GMT |
| 22:31 | 22:31 |
| Dan Roberts | Dan Roberts |
| Our Washington bureau chief is with Bernie Sanders in Texas, from where he filed this dispatch and video earlier. Contains added Woody Guthrie… | Our Washington bureau chief is with Bernie Sanders in Texas, from where he filed this dispatch and video earlier. Contains added Woody Guthrie… |
| Despite leaving South Carolina with his tail between his legs this morning, Bernie Sanders quickly picked up the groove again in at a lunchtime rally in Austin. | Despite leaving South Carolina with his tail between his legs this morning, Bernie Sanders quickly picked up the groove again in at a lunchtime rally in Austin. |
| This is still peak Bernie territory and the campaign estimates 10,000 people came to see him, a number that was hard to verify because so many were still queuing to get in when then speech started. | This is still peak Bernie territory and the campaign estimates 10,000 people came to see him, a number that was hard to verify because so many were still queuing to get in when then speech started. |
| Radio commentator and warm-up act Jim Hightower reminded the crowd that this wasn’t just Austin, this was south Austin, where “we’re here because we’re not all there”. | Radio commentator and warm-up act Jim Hightower reminded the crowd that this wasn’t just Austin, this was south Austin, where “we’re here because we’re not all there”. |
| Nonetheless, the sunshine and socialism was a much-needed tonic for the campaign which has low expectations in most of the south but is hopeful of running Clinton closer than pundits expect in Texas. | Nonetheless, the sunshine and socialism was a much-needed tonic for the campaign which has low expectations in most of the south but is hopeful of running Clinton closer than pundits expect in Texas. |
| The rally finished with one of Bernie’s many musical staples, a rendition of Woody Guthrie’s folk classic This Land is Your Land, aided and abetted in this case by a duo called Folk Uke – featuring Amy Nelson, daughter of Willie Nelson, and Cathy Guthrie, granddaughter of Woody Guthrie. | The rally finished with one of Bernie’s many musical staples, a rendition of Woody Guthrie’s folk classic This Land is Your Land, aided and abetted in this case by a duo called Folk Uke – featuring Amy Nelson, daughter of Willie Nelson, and Cathy Guthrie, granddaughter of Woody Guthrie. |
| 10.29pm GMT | 10.29pm GMT |
| 22:29 | 22:29 |
| Here, meanwhile, is what polling guru/ace/wizard/egghead/boffin/genius Nate Silver, over at fivethirtyeight.com, says about tonight’s result, which we’re expecting at 7pm ET or shortly thereafter: | Here, meanwhile, is what polling guru/ace/wizard/egghead/boffin/genius Nate Silver, over at fivethirtyeight.com, says about tonight’s result, which we’re expecting at 7pm ET or shortly thereafter: |
| According to our final polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary. | According to our final polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary. |
| So there’s that. | So there’s that. |
| 10.24pm GMT | 10.24pm GMT |
| 22:24 | 22:24 |
| Dan Roberts, our Washington bureau chief, is with Bernie Sanders in Dallas, which as I’ve pointed out already is, pointedly, not in South Carolina. Here’s the scene a short while ago: | Dan Roberts, our Washington bureau chief, is with Bernie Sanders in Dallas, which as I’ve pointed out already is, pointedly, not in South Carolina. Here’s the scene a short while ago: |
| 10.09pm GMT | 10.09pm GMT |
| 22:09 | 22:09 |
| Good evening, and welcome to our continuing live-wire coverage of the presidential election, which tonight has landed in the Palmetto State, South Carolina, for the Democratic primary. | Good evening, and welcome to our continuing live-wire coverage of the presidential election, which tonight has landed in the Palmetto State, South Carolina, for the Democratic primary. |
| Hillary Clinton is expected to win it, and handily. Don’t believe me? Ask Bernie Sanders, who flew out to Texas earlier on election day, there to concentrate on voters who will go to the polls on Super Tuesday. | Hillary Clinton is expected to win it, and handily. Don’t believe me? Ask Bernie Sanders, who flew out to Texas earlier on election day, there to concentrate on voters who will go to the polls on Super Tuesday. |
| Dan Roberts was on the plane with him, while Lauren Gambino is with Clinton. We’ll have updates from them, on a night which should emphasise the lasting hold the Clinton machine has on the south, and African American voters in particular. Megan Carpentier is attending a Clinton watch party in Minnesota, another Super Tuesday state. | Dan Roberts was on the plane with him, while Lauren Gambino is with Clinton. We’ll have updates from them, on a night which should emphasise the lasting hold the Clinton machine has on the south, and African American voters in particular. Megan Carpentier is attending a Clinton watch party in Minnesota, another Super Tuesday state. |
| Adam Gabbatt, meanwhile, is at a Donald Trump rally in Memphis, Tennessee. There may or may not be the usual unusual fireworks to come from there. Perhaps the candidate will address his latest endorsement, which came today from la belle France… | Adam Gabbatt, meanwhile, is at a Donald Trump rally in Memphis, Tennessee. There may or may not be the usual unusual fireworks to come from there. Perhaps the candidate will address his latest endorsement, which came today from la belle France… |
| Related: Jean-Marie Le Pen endorses Trump days after ex-KKK leader urges support | Related: Jean-Marie Le Pen endorses Trump days after ex-KKK leader urges support |
| …and when you’ve caught your breath from that, here’s some more pre-primary reading: | …and when you’ve caught your breath from that, here’s some more pre-primary reading: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.15pm GMT | at 10.15pm GMT |