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Poll points to hung Irish parliament — or historic alliance Poll points to hung Irish parliament — or historic alliance
(35 minutes later)
DUBLIN — An exit poll in Ireland’s election has found that voters have turned away from the coalition government of Prime Minister Enda Kenny and the country faces either a hung parliament with no workable majority — or an alliance between the traditional polar opposites of political life. DUBLIN — A detailed exit poll for Ireland’s election has found that most voters spurned the coalition government of Prime Minister Enda Kenny and the country faces either a hung parliament with no workable majority — or an alliance between the traditional polar opposites of political life.
The poll by Irish broadcasters RTE was revealed hours before Saturday’s start to a ballot count expected to run into Sunday. The poll by Irish broadcasters RTE was revealed hours ahead of Saturday’s start to a ballot count expected to run into Sunday.
It says Kenny’s Fine Gael party has received 24.8 percent of first-preference votes, much lower than expected, while its age-old enemy Fianna Fail has won 21.1 percent. They have never worked together in government. The poll says Kenny’s Fine Gael party has received 24.8 percent of first-preference votes — much lower than any opinion poll during Ireland’s three-week election campaign — while the party’s age-old enemy Fianna Fail has won 21.1 percent.
The poll involved face-to-face surveys of 4,283 people who had just voted in all 40 constituencies at 225 polling stations. It had an error margin of 1.5 percentage points. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael trace their roots to opposite sides in the 1922-23 civil war that followed Ireland’s independence from Britain. They have never worked together in government, and both Kenny and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin ruled out the prospect of partnership.
The poll involved face-to-face surveys of 4,283 people who had just voted in all 40 constituencies at 225 polling stations. It had an unusually precise error margin of 1.5 percentage points.
If the poll findings are borne out in official results, the obvious question is how Kenny, leader of the largest party, can cobble together a parliamentary majority from other parties.
The poll found that voters gave Kenny’s current coalition partner, the left-wing Labour Party, just 7.1 percent of first-preference votes.
Typically an Irish government needs to win more than 40 percent of first-preference votes to command a majority in Ireland’s 158-seat parliament.
The projected results make this difficult, if not impossible, for Fine Gael without Fianna Fail. Both center-ground parties have ruled out cooperation with the party expected to finish third, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein.
The poll says Sinn Fein received 16 percent of first-preference votes, sufficient to double its number of lawmakers — but not enough to give either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail a majority, even if either cut a deal with the Irish Republican Army-linked party.
The results from Friday’s election could take days to complete fully because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation designed to ensure that smaller parties and independents win seats. This allows voters to rate candidates in order of preference and requires electoral officials to tabulate results in several laborious rounds.
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.